I'm not feeling very optimistic about this game. The following is from Gauchodan's Big West Substack Column:

The Matadors (10-4, 2-1) return home after tying a school record with 17 threes at Cal State Fullerton. CSUN was unconscious in the 1st half in jumping out to an insurmountable 60-26 lead. Unusually, Northridge is 2-0 in conference on the road but 0-1 at home. The Matadors are scoring 82.4 points per game and holding opponents to .379 shooting from the floor.

The Aggies (8-6, 2-1) have the opposite profile in conference, winning both of their home games and losing their one road game Thursday night at CSU Bakersfield. TY Johnson topped 20 points for the 8th time this year and is averaging 20.2 ppg. The problem for UC Davis is finding additional scorers. Thursday night, the 2nd-leading scorer (Connor Sevilla) had just 10 points. Sevilla, Pablo Tamba, Niko Rocak and/or Leo DeBruhl need to augment Johnson for UCD to be successful.

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oddsmakers seem to agree making us 8.5 point underdogs

I'm not sure we will cover that spread. We could lose by double digits if our offense and rebounding continue to be anemic.

My plan is to take down the Christmas stuff later, check the halftime score and then decide if I want to check in on ESPN+

The thing about sports is that you never know for sure what's going to happen. Go Ags! Sevilla drains two treys in a row and defensive rebounding seems better. Trouble is, everyone else is 0 for 5.

We are desperately missing some bigs. So much burden on Nico it’s crazy. Not sure why Tamba isn’t playing.

I’m no basketball expert, but it’s hard to win shooting under 30%. Especially when you’re undersized. Down 9 at the half. Decent shooting and this is a close game

Aggies down 34-25 at the half and it could have been worse. Seems like the guys are in a collective shooting slump these last two games. CSUN is playing solid defense, but that's no excuse for a 6/24 effort by UC Davis. Rocak, DeBruhl and Tamba have a total of 4 points between them and TY is 1 for 5. They can still turn this around. Focusing on Mani, I get the impression that his basketball IQ is not very high, as if lacks experience or something. He had 2 turnovers, foul and a goal-tending call on plays when he should have played smarter.

Nicole? Did you mean Nico Rocak?

I'd like to see TY pull up for a short J instead of trying to force a shot inside, even if he draws a foul. He's only 6 for 9 from the free throw line in this game.

Yea I edited it. Mani has only had short bursts. I would like to see him play longer and get a chance to get in rhythm.

he’s such a liability on defense, it’s hard to keep him out there.

Wish Borra was healthy. Dude is bulked up this year.

Shooting continues to be horrible

It’s like the Pepperdine game just destroyed this group’s confidence on the offensive end. They need to turn this around at home next week

Giving credit to the Matadors, they're a lot better this year. Their defense was very good. Adams is a great addition, noting that he was 5 for 9 from the arc and had 28 points. Also, Keonte Jones ripped down 20 boards. When was the last time that happened against us? On the other hand, the Ags continue to struggle from the floor and I note that their assist to turnover ratio in their last two games is 16:28. BlueGold was right about not covering the 8.5 spread. Dr. Mike was right about not being able to win shooting under 30%. Coach Les has to figure out how to right the ship before it sinks.

We had 12 assists tonight on only 24 made buckets, so that ratio isn’t bad. Pretty similar to CSUN.

There's a lot of conference basketball yet to be played and Les has a knack of getting his teams into the thick of things even when he doesn't have the overall talent of the top teams but I'm not sure that he has the horses this year to do that. Not having Borra is certainly a big factor but I'm not sure it would be making a drastic difference. He'd certainly be a big body in the post and would give Nico some support but he has not shown that he is an offensive threat and we really need some inside scoring

Les is an excellent coach and he makes great in-game decisions and adjustments. His teams always play very hard and no coach in the Big West gets more out the talent he has each year. However, I hate to say but I don't think he's getting in done on the recruiting end though.

Generally speaking we have really good guards but not great bigs and we have really good on ball defenders but not great rebounders. We also seldom get good production offensively from our biggest players and, this year, that is a glaring problem for us.

In 2026 we'll be playing much tougher competition in the MWC. Les is going to have to step up his recruiting to the next level including bringing in talented big men or we'll be bringing up the bottom of the MWC.

The MWC teams have some money allocated to NIL. Davis will need to figure out if it wants to be in the business of paying players. If it does not, moving up will be a colossal failure. Recruiting these days has almost nothing to do with the school, the coach or anything else. It comes down entirely to the best financial offer.

Why didn't Jac Mani play? Is this bc Les plays 3-4 guards, 1 big, and Rocak is playing so well?

Johnson 3-16, Seville 2-9, DeBruhl 2-11 on FGs. The threesome 3 of 17 from 3.

Les' guards shooting poorly on the year.

Why didn't Jac Mani play? — movielover

Could be a lot of reasons...everything from being under the weather to not being able to defend against bigs in the paint without fouling. He had 4 fouls in the first half of the Bakersfield game and teams are taking advantage of him in the paint.

Mani was was only medically cleared play in the last 3 games so he's still working to get up to speed physically and he needs to get more experience playing but it's tough to give him minutes until he can defend better. He has a beautiful 3 point shot. He and Chapelle have a lot of similarities in that they can both shoot the deep ball but are still learning to play tough inside, rebound and defend without fouling in the paint.

He did play for a grand total of 2 poorly played minutes.

Looking back at the last half dozen years or so of solid point guard play, I see that the Ags usually average 12 assists per game for the whole season. This year it's 10.8 not that far below. Maybe Coach Les doesn't stress assists that much or maybe TY just isn't that great about distributing the ball. It would be good to see him penetrate and kick the ball out more often.

The team shooting 42%... now probably 41% ... hurts assists.

It's kind of a chicken and egg problem because more assists also improves shooting percentages.

Last year, TY shot about 37% from 3; right now, he’s at 18%. That’s a crazy drop off.

I've seen no evidence that Coach Les likes bigs, or knows how to use or coach them. He has a guard-oriented offense, and typically one forward (4) competing for rebounds vs two bigs. When they have two bigs and an athletic 3, we're really in trouble.

Adenrele was 6'7" (and I think he inherited him from Stewart), Moneke was 6'6". It's gonna be tough to win in the MWC with that kind of size, and we go nowhere in the tourney. Les' ideal is probably somebody like Rocak, 5.5 PPG, 7 RPG, and 1.5 BPG, or Mani bc he can shoot the 3, which fits his offense. But it sounds like he's soft.

Early in his tenure here Les ran off serviceable big men, recruited new big men, and then didn't play them. Maybe Isaiah Chappell develops this year. 6'9" F, can shoot the 3, and had 6 points tonight, hitting all of his shots. Go Ags.

I think that having Borra out has hurt this team more than I was previously thinking. Like DrMike said, he's a big body and he has really bulked up in the off season. He was making a lot of progress last season and expect he would be having a bigger impact this year.

He would be a big defensive presence in the post and, on offense, teams would have to pay attention to him in the paint which would free up players like Mani and Chapelle play more on the perimeter where I think they are more effective currently with their good shooting. Having Borra out has put a lot of pressure on Rocak to play extended minutes and has forced Les to use Mani and Chapelle in ways that aren't their particular strengths also.

Hard to tell how well Borra would have been this season, but I was never impressed with him in the past. His athleticism was limited and he was slow. Quicker big men took advantage of him. Last season was his best but he still only averaged 12.6 minutes a game. For his height he was not a great rebounder or rim protector. He had more fouls than rebounds. Ade Adebayo, at 6'5" and lack of offense, was much more effective in the front-court alongside Nico. It's likely he would have been better this season but how much we'll never know.

Those are valid points of view, Toke. I wonder if he will have another year of eligibility or whether he will be timed out and/or graduate.

You don't have to be particularly big to be a good rebounder. CSUN's Keonte Jones is 6''6 and he had 20 boards today to go along with 13 points, 6 assists, 3 steals and a block. We could use a player like that!

Here's a couple of post-game comments from Les and Matador Coach Andy Newman:

I didn't like our start on defense," Les said.

"When we lock in on defense, we can be pretty good, but we let them get some rhythm and some confidence early on their home floor and then they started feeling pretty good about themselves and that's hard to stop. Once an offense like theirs gets rolling, it's hard to shut off the faucet.

This is Division I, big boy basketball," Les added emphatically.

"It's a big, tough game and we can't be soft like we were today. We have to get better. I challenged everyone afterward that we need to get back to playing Aggie basketball. Today, our concentration just wasn't what it should be.

Added Newman, "Today's win was huge. Coach Les is an established coach and a mentor of mine, and if I could have half the career he's had, I'd be really happy. It's always fun when you beat a really good team that's really well coached and that's what we did today.

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i don't think Borra would be a game-changer, but we could use those 13 minutes of decent low post defense/rebounding when we want to give Rocek a break. Borra did get a ton of fouls -> his footwork and quickness doesn't come close to Nico. But our options now are Mani who really looks outmatched on defense, and Chappell who is young.

Also makes you appreciate Abebayo. He was a real defensive force and became a decent offensive finisher last year.