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BlueGoldAg
1.3kWe won't know until tomorrow if the Aggies get selected but, I hate to say it, I think the Ags will be one of the first 4 bubble teams left out. Our only "good win" in the eyes of the selection committee is today's win over Sac but we have several "bad losses" and, after what we saw last year from the committee, they don't have much respect for the Aggies. I sincerely hope I'm wrong.
The FCS Selection will air at 9:30 am PT on ESPNU.
This is from Sam Becton of NCAA.com:
Sacramento State
Sacramento State doesn't have a ranked win at 7-4. However, the Hornets do have an FBS win to offset the hole in their resume. All of Sacramento State's losses are good losses — even its season-ending loss to UC Davis.
Speaking of which, an FBS win and quality losses separate the Hornets from UC Davis even after Week 12's game. Those factors will ultimately get Sacramento State one of the last spots.
UC Davis
UC Davis put itself in the playoff conversation with a win over Sacramento State to close the season, but it won't be enough. Losses to Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona still look bad compared to other bubble teams.
See the above portion on why Sacramento State made it in the playoffs for more on why UC Davis is out.
Sam Herder at Hero Sports: He has the Aggies in as the #21 selection and Sac as the #24 selection.
https://herosports.com/fcs-football-2023-playoff-predictions-final-bzbz/
College Sports Madness:
Last Four In: Chattanooga, Sacramento State, Western Carolina, Incarnate Word
First Four Out: Mercer, UC Davis, Tennessee-Martin, Northern Iowa
See the FCS Football Projected Bracket
The bubble has shrunk considerably during the last Saturday of the regular season. Mercer and UC Davis are the only two teams that really feel like they deserve a spot in the playoffs. Each could easily find themselves on the right side of the bubble when the selection committee makes their picks. Chattanooga, again, is a team that could be left out. Sacramento State is on a big slide right now and UC Davis just beat the Hornets and have an equal 7-4 record. Incarnate Word finished 8-2, but the schedule has been easy.
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/22255 -
CA Forever
673I wouldn't be surprised to see the Aggies miss out. 1 more win and we're comfortably in. -
DavisAggie
46I see no rationale for Sac St getting a high rank with the committee: H2H, common opponents, ranked wins, conference performance, etc all favor Davis -
Riveraggie
251
Common Opponents
Texas A&M Commerce.
Northern Arizona
Idaho State
Montana
Cal Poly
Sac 4 wins and 1 loss Davis 3 wins and 2 losses. -
DavisAggie
46And with 3 of those 5 opponents, Davis had better results. Then add H2H. Nicholls is their only .500+ win
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DavisAggie
46Craig Haley has Davis as the first team out:
https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/11/fcs-bracketology-projecting-the-playoff-field/ -
DaddyAggie
8Yea this is gonna be a tough one. We will have to see how the committee evaluates H2H vs strength of schedule and that Sac win over Stanford which kind of messes everything up. -
BlueGoldAg
1.3kIt's just too close for comfort. I think I'll just brace myself for disappointment but keep my fingers crossed.
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cmt
153Yeah, losing to a 5-6 and a 4-7 team seems like it will be held against us a bit. Like if you just swapped those to losses to be against Montana St and Idaho, I'm guessing we'd be in easy. Like last year if we were 7-4, swapping out the SDSU loss for a win against a 4-7 team, we would have been in the playoffs. This year we have the extra win but the resume isn't quite as strong. -
CA Forever
673Most to all predictions I have seen have us as either a last 4 in or first 4 out. It's going to be really close.
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BlueGoldAg
1.3kThe Montana AD is on the selection committee. You know he must of had a great amount of influence on screwing us last year but I wondering if he might be working for us this year since he's representing the Big Sky. Our loss to Montana was close and the stats for both team were even. If it wasn't for the TO's, we might have won that game. I hope he takes that into consideration too and tries his best to sway the committee in our favor.
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BlueGoldAg
1.3kThis is what the FCS fans over on the AGS forum think the field will look like according to their final Top 25 poll which has the Ags at #25 and Sac at #16:
Re: AGS Poll Results 2023 Wk12 - SELECTION SUNDAY!
The fully seeded AGS playoff field would look like this:
16 Sac State/17 Youngstown State @ 1 South Dakota State
9 Furman/24 Duquesne @ 8 North Dakota State
13 Southern Illinois/20 Richmond @ 4 Idaho
12 North Dakota/21 Gardner-Webb @ 5 Villanova
14 Mercer/19 Lafayette @ 3 South Dakota
11 Delaware/22 Nicholls @ 6 Albany
15 Chattanooga/18 North Carolina Central @ 2 Montana
10 Austin Peay/ 23 Drake @ Montana State
First 4 out: Incarnate Word, UT Martin, Western Carolina, UC Davis
https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?345567-AGS-Poll-Results-2023-Wk12-SELECTION-SUNDAY! -
CA Forever
673Well that's certainly not encouraging. I suppose we'll find out in a couple of minutes here.
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