Agreed. As I said we can go on forever about how the numbers are derived and testing is a big issue in all of this. My intent was only to point out that the numbers being tossed around now don’t come up with a rate in the .002 range. IF we could test everybody and IF the tests were reliable the rate would probably drop. We can all hope so.

And we can all hope for broader and accurate testing, effective treatments, and a vaccine so that we can get back to the important things in life like getting together and cheering for the Ags.

I know there is a different thread on this but I’ll make a brief comment here. I took epidemiology decades ago, but as I recall, there are a bunch of ways to calculate this. For case specific rates, the denominator can be the entire population, OR a subset of it such as the number of those considered “susceptible.” For example, if you are looking at prostate cancer, women are excluded from the population. One might exclude vaccinates from a given population when calculating influenza rates.

Looks like I mistakenly used a wrong number in my calculation. My bad.

Nevertheless, recent tests by Stanford, USC, & Los Angeles reportedly reveal that early estimates were massively wrong on a historic scale. While transmission appears prolific, mortality rates appear to be similiar to the seasonal flu.

Here is an interesting 'hot mic' clip commenting on these recent developments from the White House press room.

https://youtu.be/_dB-H2viCYc

Some background on the Hot Mic story:
https://www.mediaite.com/news/white-house-hot-mic-catches-someone-joking-with-foxs-john-roberts-weve-all-been-vaccinated-around-here/

I'm not one of those dozen but point taken lol. I thought the campus experience at Sac State did suck though. To be fair UCD does have a fair number of dumb smart kids too.

Fullerton first to announce only online classes for fall semester. Some eastern schools are cancelling fall semester all together. So, yes likely no fall or winter sports this year. What a bummer.

UConn sending mixed messages about whether or not there will even be fall sports:
https://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-huskies/hc-sp-uconn-fall-sports-katsouleas-20200422-20200421-3q2eyjtf3vfuzaxxu2qyxnclre-story.html

Way too early. Probably under the spell of the Love Gov. Stanford, USC, and Los Angeles recent studies reportedly reveal a virus that spreads far easier, but with a mortality rate equivalent to the standard flu. Way too early.

Via Tom Mcklintok. Tom Fitton@TomFitton

"In 1957, Asian flu killed 116k Americans, the equivalent of 220k in today’s population.The Eisenhower generation didn’t strip grocery shelves of toilet paper, confine entire population to their homes or lay waste to the economy.They coped and got through."

BTW, Sweden an interesting case to follow.

Got an eye opening look at the economics of trying tp play sports during this corona virus pandemic from the German Bundesliga. It is planning to play all of its soccer games in empty stadiums this season and the games will be played with the following conditions: all players will have to be tested and cleared before each game. There are 24 players on each squad so 48 tests there. The Bundesliga estimates that each team will have 234 support staff present for each game. They will be tested as well. So now you have 516 tests for each game. I will say its impossible to find out what these tests actually cost sine the government is paying for most of them now. But if you do it on your own thru your insurance it will be charged at the market rate. Insurance charges have ranged from $3000+/- to $1000+/- at this time. So- at the lowest cost: $516,000 in testing will be required before each match in the German Bundesliga games this season. With no fans in the stands. Can college football handle that scenario?

234 support staff?

Why not test for temperature?

Ask Bundesliga.

thats odd about Fullerton. I figured all the CSU’s and UC’s would be jointly announced based on state government input. What if they end up being the only Big West school to cancel?

As for the Big Sky, I figure the 5 western schools will act the same; as for the mountain states, who knows.

My daughter is in the Nursing program at Fullerton and it has NOT decided to have Online classes this fall. It was misreported. They are PREPARING to IF needed, but they plan on having in person classes if possible.

I hope institutions don’t make a decision for a few months. Just withhold judgement until some clarity is possible. It is foolish to lock into a position at this point.
If schools go to all online, why do we need so many? We would only need five or ten. A rush to all online seems likely to be suicide for most schools.

The 57-58 flu is a poor analogy. It took several months, occurred in 2 waves, wasn't terribly fatal at the beginning, a vaccine appeared early on; deaths estimated between 70-116k. With COVID-19, you have 50k dead (as of tomorrow) is about 5 weeks. We haven't seen this amount of deaths in this short of time since the 1918-19 flu.

No expert here, but 18-19 Spanish Flu also seems like overkill.

I've also heard discussions on various ways we currently count CV19 deaths - with CV19, or from CV19? And are there financial incentives to declare CV19 cause of death?

Well, I haven't sent in my football package and team aggie stuff yet but will do it before the deadline. God only knows how all these scenarios will play out.

I’ll send mine in as soon as I see my first pension check on May 1. I already made a sizable dent in my team Aggie contribution on give day

I hope you are correct SLO. I just got my info from LA Times and NPR who quoted the Fullerton Provost,Pamala Oliver, as saying that they are going to have “virtual” classrooms this Fall. But she did add that if things changed for the better with the virus situation, they would revert to in class teaching. So I guess its how you parse it. They did a lot of work on this before they announced, like seeing how many students could be in a class 6 feet apart, how students would leave the class at that distance, etc., (nothing worked) but that the faculty needed to know right away to prepare for “virtual classes this Fall.” My niece starts nursing school at Columbia this year and their first semester will be on-line. Frankly, I do not expect college sports to return until there is a proven vaccine available. Can you imagine the legal liability a college would face if it knowingly exposed it’s students to this virus?

Ditto San Jose State as of 12:10 pm today. Sac Bee.

Should schools be sued if someone gets the flu?

Most deaths - which are rare - are with people over 70 with multiple comorbidities.

Test every player's temperature before the game. Anyway, still way too early to tell.

And have every player sign a waiver of all a liability? Great college experience!

It's going to be kind of a weird and scary year for the city of Davis. If classes are online only where is the need to live there ? The city's restaurants and coffee places rely very heavily on the students (And this time I'm not wrong). It would be like a really extended Summer Session. It's easy to forget there's a time each year when the students are mostly gone and the townies come out of hiding. I've done Summer Sessions- very depressing. Tough living situation for students who would live off campus. Do you sign a lease in with the expectation that on- campus classes will resume later in the year or do you commit to commuting if that happens ? There might be *gasp* vacancies in Davis.

You don't get extra cash for more deaths. There is an incentive to properly classify cause of death, however. It helps determine the extent of the spread in your location.

Some reports said gov't reimbursement at $17,000 for Covid admission; $36,000 if they go on a ventilator. One example.

Yes, lots of issues surrounding this. Rental market decline? Real estate value? Business's closing? I dont live in Davis, but in our community my wife and i have done our best to support the local businesses. Heck, I’m even paying my gym monthly even though it’s closed. I actually stopped going well before they closed down the gyms.

If football is cancelled, will Kevin Thomson come back for year 7? Hard to stay eligible that long!

He could still have some eligibility and collect social security at the same time.

First guy to play in 3 decades? He’s the Minnie Miñoso of FCS!

Self made legend. Maybe he’ll go down with early onset dementia before his eligibility finally runs out? My guess is that NCAA lets him play.