Things are changing daily, not sure how they can prognosticate that far out. But my guess is these decisions will be made on a state level.

Big changes.

So we've gone from a potential 2.2 Million deaths, to 200,000 deaths, now to possibly 61,000 COVID deaths? (Currently at 17,000 deaths, some possibly misdiagnosed.) And many of the victims were / are obese a/o obese chain smokers with additional underlying health issues.

Legitimate nationwide shutdown or media Hysteria, I'd hope these officials gave it more time.

FYI, campus officially shut down until September.

the Bay Area reports tend to be long term speculation. With the big Sky covering so many states, two hit hard,a couple seeming to ignore it, it will be interesting to see how they deal with things. I suspect it will be determined by the NCAA

Somewhere here there is a joke about SJSU filling their stadium, but still being able to maintain proper social distance....but it would be wrong to say it...so I won't.

I’m sure all the various collegiate and professional sports groups will way in but my point was that the state is going to have to sanction gatherings regardless of what individual groups decide.


I’ll need to remember that one for a smack thread.

Because of shelter in place

How about "San Jose State football fans- all eight of them- are concerned about the potential impact that the coronavirus may have on their schedule"?

I got the impression that SJSU's football stadium is a dump when I passed it on the way to Excite Ballpark last year. Kind of looked like a relic from the 70's or 80's, and not a well- kept one either. BTW Excite Ballpark is no beauty either- very cookie- cutter looking. At least the memorabilia strewn throughout the park are appealing.

Here's an item to ponder- if San Jose State's atheltics season were cancelled would anybody (other than those directly involved in it) care ? Seriously SJSU, be good at something please !
It's hard to decide which CSU I care about less- San Jose State or Cal State Bakersfield.

it is a dump. Last season they blocked off the entire side of the stadium on the press box side in preparation for work on an athletics performance center, so things must have been a little cozier. Capacity went from 30k to 21k. Articles say an ‘unspecified number of seats’ will be restored when project is complete in (original plan) 2023.

They have a spirited tailgate area. I think their fans show up to party then go home, lol.

I don’t think the question is about whether a particular game still happens but might be who still has football a year from now. March madness a revenue flop, football revenue in jeopardy, potential for state budget cuts, potential for reduced revenue from endowments and donors if market stays down. Question is how much are expenses also down and do schools have enough gas in the tank to get over this hill.

scholarships and salaries are a big expenditure and those are still there. For the big conferences like the SEC and Big 10 that have huge TV money, the hit might be milder (unless the networks have some bail out clause) but for everyone else this is already a big hit.

The tailgate and run sounds like Brewfest!

It would be an unpleasant thought but perhaps UCD and similarly- situated colleges should just take 2021 off from competition and re- asses their programs and financial resources. UCD funds their athletic programs primarily through alumni donations and those alumni are certainly taking a financial hit in one way or another. Meanwhile enrollment may drop because students' families can't afford the tuition. I would be very surprised if UCD came out of this without cutting any sports. It won't be football, but baseball could be on the chopping block, as could some high- travel sports that do not generate revenue like lacrosse, field hockey, or golf. Football is probably the one sport that represents a real community event.

People who decide these things should withhold judgement for a while until the situation clarifies or the calendar forces a decision.

"UCD funds their athletic programs primarily through alumni donations" - incorrect. UC Davis is unique in that over half of the Athletics budget is derived from student fees. If the Sac Bee is to be trusted, only ~3.5% of funding comes from contributions

Way too early to make such drastic measures. Anticipated deaths are only a fraction of what was estimated. Testing is ramping up, transmissions way down.

A large chunk of ICA funding comes from student fees, and tens of thousands of students desire a UC Davis education.

So here's a link to an article from the Aggie that says that UC Davis student fees accounted for about 57% (23.5 million) of the athletics budget in 2018- 2019. I stand corrected.

Student fees

So it doesn't pay to recite things from Annual Fund training in 1997 I suppose. :)

The Aggie's math does seem to work out. However, the Sac Bee's only suggests less than $1.5 million is from alumni donations. How accurately does the Bee cover anything UC Davis ?

As desirable as UC Davis is you can't bank on there being an endless supply of potential students who can can afford (and want to) to attend. We have yet to completely see the financial impact of the virus.

There is after all a very real reason behind Dr. Blue's plea for financial support. He's not doing it to get himself a new house or lights for Dobbins Stadium- athletics really needs the money. He's not just sweating about a decrease in 3.5% of his budget.

If they are forced to make do with less, then cutting sports is a possible consequence. I'd hate to see baseball go, as it's the only reason I come to Davis anymore .

If the argument is a possible, temporary budget shortfall ... then how about furlough unneeded staff.

that only happens in the private sector. I am confident sports will continue - when I don’t know but it is a good community rallying point.

good point. Different states have different situations. California likely to slowly put foot back on the pedal, but states like South Dakota with low population density would be ready to tee it up earlier.

CoCo County has 19 deaths for over 1.2 Million people, with a .002 mortality rate?

San Luis Obispo County has 260,000 residents, and 1 CV death?

That's not how you calculate mortality rate

Theoretically, yes, but South Dakota just had an explosion of coronavirus at a meat packing plant

I left off the infected number. I think it is 8,500? Which gets us the .002 mortality rate, right?

..

The most recent information I could find regarding Contra Costa County is that there have been 20 deaths out of 693 reported cases. That is from the Mercury News website published yesterday and updated within the last hour.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/19/coronavirus-contra-costa-county-reports-seven-new-cases-one-death/

Dividing 20 by 693 results in a per capita rate of 0.02886.

The commonly cited 'death per reported case' rates for Covid-19 on a large scale are somewhere in the 3.0% to 4.0% range with the most typical number I have seen as 3.4%.

“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [Empahsis in the original.]
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

That number is per cent, or per 100, as opposed to the per capita, or per individual figure I calculated above for Contra Costa County. To convert THAT figure to percentage, you multiply it by 100, (or move the decimal point two places to the right as we learned, oh, so long ago,) resulting in a percentage for Contra Costa County of 2.886%.

So, not as bad as the generally quoted figure for Covid-19 worldwide, but certainly much higher than "the less than 1%" accepted rate for the flu.

Now THAT is using the numbers provided. We could use up all of this website’s storage pointing out problems with arriving at the numbers…poor reporting, poorly defined standards on just what constitutes actually being infected with the virus, failure to report due to mistake, failure to report due to intentional concealment, poorly defined standards on just what constitutes the cause of death, lack of testing, sample size, …. the list goes on.

[And I have NO experience in medicine, epidemiology, etc., and when I took statistics back in the early 70s to complete a breadth requirement we did all of our calculations with pencil and paper.]

Right now, way too little data to make long term predictions.

A CNN/FoxNews survey reveals that truths, half truths, alternative truths, and wish-it-were truths posted on a football forum with a dozen regular offseason posters are unlikely to change anyone’s mind on political matters, but that 100% of those people agree that Sac State sucks.

Sac State sucks

Haha, love it.

We can’t know the death rate if we don’t know how many have had the disease, and we don’t yet. A USC survey indicates perhaps 4% of Los Angeles county has had it, which implies its about as lethal as the flu, but perhaps more contagious,
It’s fallacious to just divide deaths by positive tests unless you have tested everyone who had the disease.

We’ll know how to estimate how many have had the disease pretty soon once someone does a large random antibody test,