2024 Week 2: Texas A&M Commerce (0-1) @ UC Davis (0-1) I'd agree we're more likely than not to get in at 8-4 but thinking about it more I'm cynical enough to want a buffer of at least one more win if possible. I'm remembering last year the argument for Davis making the field was essentially also a serious case for Sac to get left out at 8 wins including an FBS win.
FWIW, I poked around Sac's schedule and they could potentially pose another bid-stealing situation with us because even with two FBS opponents they have a very good chance of heading into Causeway Week with 7 or 8 wins.
A scary scenario would be having 8 wins coming into Causeway, Sac having 7 with a loss to Weber, and then them picking up the Causeway win -- Sac would then have not-much-worse losses, fewer FCS losses, and H2H over us on selection day. Not to mention Weber has a chance to build a resume with that scenario.
In other words, we almost have to treat @Sac as do-or-die as well depending on what their record is looking like in the last few weeks