Nothing was wrong with it, but it wasn't working. Everyone was looking for a way around it, usually via litigation. I think the hope is that a more specifically defined set of criteria, with fewer grey areas, will avoid most of the issues. We'll see.

Plus, the majority of all students (53%) do not finish a degree within 4 years. The average is 5 years, 10 months to finish a degree. D1 athletes seem to do slightly better than the general student, mostly due to the amount of academic support provided. That statistic is slightly skewed because it doesn't track all athletes, only retained athletes who enter as freshmen. The proposed 5/5 may better align with reality.

Final Thoughts (Currently)

Who’s starting may be less important than who’s on the court to finish, especially a close game.

My projected stating line up stands 5’8”, 5’9”, 6’, 6’1” and 6’3”. But at some point, the tallest Aggie player on the court will be 6’1”. So UCD will for sure be playing small ball at times, maybe quite a bit in some games.

Strength in numbers? It looks like the Aggies could have several players with similar heights, but different strengths. That offers the potential for playing a variety of lineups depending on matchups, or who’s playing well.

It’s possible that the Aggies could have five freshmen on the court at once at some point in the season. That would be an interesting lineup to watch, as well as one of the tallest on-court groups the Aggies have ever fielded. Based on what position people played in high school, that might look like:

Point: Taylor Hicks, 6’0”
Wing: Layla Dixon, 5’11”
Wing: Anna Bassett, 6’0”
Fwd: Rebecca Donnelly, 6’1”
Post: Marta Forsline, 6’3”

Due to season-ending injuries early on, last season’s Aggie bench was short and very inexperienced. AND very young - three of the five available players were true freshmen, another was a redshirt freshman returning from a year lost to injury. With the exception of super-sub Vic Baker, significant contributions, other than brief rests for the starters, were rare. The result was no second unit as such. As the season progressed, the rotation became limited to 7 or 8 players. This year’s bench should be deeper, but overall, even younger.

Last year, Aggie starters averaged over 32 mpg. Late in the season, I thought tired legs were evident. Not for everyone, in every game, but someone was “off” in several games. This year’s group has the potential to do more than provide brief rests, despite limited game experience at the collegiate level. They can all run, and several look like capable 3-pt shooters. We could see stretches of small ball if this group can form an effective second unit.

Bench

If she isn’t starting - and that’s a distinct possibility - Emmy Ersdala should be the 1st player off the bench. Though Emmy played mostly forward last season, she also saw time at wing - and could again. That versatility could be crucial for the Aggies. Emy’s best moments were scattered throughout the season; if she can string those together, Ersdala should see plenty of action.

Carrington Davis, despite a high school resume comparable to that of Sussex and Bennett, didn’t see nearly as many minutes as her fellow sophomores. Perhaps like Sussex, Carrington will blossom during her sophomore season. She has some ’bounce’, so it’s definitely possible that Davis could claim a starting wing position. Or she could become the primary back-up anywhere on the perimeter.

Returning from injury, Theoni Tsami saw some action in 25 games last season, backing up Megan Norris at center. Theoni flashed a nice 3-pointer, and good movement rolling to the basket off a screen. If those brief looks are legit, Tsami could become a match-up problem as a small post player and emerge as a viable backup - a very welcome development for the front court rotation. Hopefully, her knee is sound and she’s regained the confidence to play freely.

2026 recruit, Australian Anna Bassett, arrived just after Christmas, enrolled for Winter Quarter, and has practiced with the team since. That experience should put the 6’ Bassett a significant step ahead of her fellow 2026 recruits, and may enable her to challenge for a starting role. If she’s like many Aussies who come to the States for college hoops, she’s a good shooter. On a squad that needs to replace so much scoring, that alone could lead to substantial playing time.

Carondelet graduate Layla Dixon is a smooth player who seems capable of playing several positions. Dixon has a complete game, including some defensive skills. Strong defense is rare for a freshman, so maybe that, plus Layla’s versatility will lead to more time on the court early on in her Aggie career.

Texan Taylor Hicks has some swagger to go with what looks to be a powerful, athletic game. Looking at clips of her play, makes me think Taylor grew up playing with and against boys on the playground. At 6’, Hicks did everything for her Hutto High team, from playing center to handling the ball on the break. Maybe she’ll find a role backing up at point guard in her first year as an Aggie, or maybe Taylor will become an under-sized, problem-causing forward.

Australian Rebecca Donnelly may be destined to play forward based on height. Like UCD’s current front court players, Rebecca stands 6’1”, so she could become part of the forward/center rotation. Like Anna Bassett, Rebecca looks to be a good shooter. Donnelly won’t be as familiar with the Aggie defensive scheme as Bassett, and defense is usually critical for playing time at UCD. But, if Rebecca can play some defense, and her shooting is as advertised, the Ags should find minutes for her.

The final player on the Aggie roster, redshirt junior Sahanna Kanagasabay, would be much higher on this list - possibly in contention for a starting wing position - had she not re-injured her knee in last season’s opening game. At this point, what she can contribute, or how much she should even play, is totally unknown.

Out of curiosity, where do you think the WBB team will finish? Since you didn't make a prediction for them in your post.

In his "committed" post he talks about 2nd chances and Granite Hills "taking him in." He started out at Cathedral Catholic in San Diego, so maybe made some poor choices while there?

No, Sahana's included in the snapshots of the bench that I'll post tomorrow. Given that she suffered her second knee injury in last season's opening game, I'm not sure where she is at this point.

I saw her in one video posted of the girls in the weight room. One leg was notably smaller in muscle mass than the other - I mean really smaller. Far smaller than last season, and also smaller than I remembered from 2024-25 after her 1st injury. So she's a real question mark. I know that if I were coaching, I'd have some concerns about putting her on the court, just for her future health.

Truly a shame. In the six minutes she played last season before going down, she looked ready to really contribute. Had she played all of last season w/o injury, she would very likely have been one of my projected starters this year.

With only two returning starters, there are question marks all over the court. Two perimeter spots are definitely up for grabs, and while there are obvious choices in the front court, neither forward nor center are locks. However, point guard is set; Avery Sussex increasingly claimed that role last season. While there are some scenarios in which Sussex slides over to wing, I think Jen Gross goes with experience at the point, especially with this group. Senior Tegan Young gets the nod again at forward, but there are questions. One BIG question is if and how much Young will be needed as a backup center again. If Tegan has to spend significant time in the post, forward could be manned by committee.

Projected Starters

Point Guard
During her sophomore campaign, Avery Sussex grew into the floor leader that Jen Gross probably envisioned when recruiting her. Avery finished among Big West Conference leaders in scoring, assists and steals. Though most of her scoring came from beyond the arc, Sussex also showed the mid-range jumper and the ability to get to the rim that, combined with 3-pt shooting, made her a dominant high school player. Importantly, Sussex finished strong, culminating in being selected to the Big West All-Tournament Team. Avery will probably be asked to shoulder more of the scoring load, as well as run the offense, spread the ball around, and help elevate the play of her young teammates.

Wings
Based on her play off the bench last season, sophomore guard Sophie Lentfer would seem to be first in line for one of the perimeter spots, but she'll have to earn it and hold it. At 6’, Sophie would add size - and potential post-up ability - to the Aggie backcourt, as well as a 3-pt. shot. Lentfer had her best moments at the end of last season, but she needs to build on that, mature quickly, and become a consistent factor at both ends of the court.

Junior transfer Angeliki Zaika is my early guess to start opposite Lentfer. Zaika brings needed experience (51 games in the WCC and A10), excellent ball-handling (1.5 career A/TO ratio), and surprising shot-blocking ability for a 5’9” guard. Angeliki has never started though, and her shooting (and confidence?) suffered last year at Davidson, so she’ll need to find her stroke again. Zaika will need to put up more than the 8 points in 26 minutes a game she did during her freshman year at San Francisco. She should have plenty of motivation to do so.

Lentfer’s fellow sophomore, Emmy Ersdala, is in the mix here as well, but Emmy was last season’s primary backup at forward, so I’m assuming she’s still in a mostly front court role.

Forward
Returning starter Tegan Young admitted that the faster-pace of Big West play led to “growing pains’ last season. Despite that, plus acclimating to the Aggie system, plus becoming the primary backup for Megan Norris at center, Young showed overall improvement over her play at Manhattan. Hopefully with a year in the Aggie system, Tegan will further develop, especially in terms of consistency. But the competition for playing time will be stiffer than last year; Tegan will be counted on for more than last season’s 6 points and 4 rebounds a contest.

Post
As alluded to yesterday, for the first time since the 2012-13 season, a true freshman will start in the post for the Aggies. That player, Alyson Doherty, had a stellar Aggie career from Day1, so here’s hoping for deja vu all over again. 6’3” Marta Forsline - the only player on the roster with true post size only began getting notice between her junior and senior years, particularly after a strong showing in Minnesota’s statewide 3x3 tournament. Forsline followed an excellent 11th grade season (24.9 ppg, 14.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, 3.1 bpg) with an outstanding senior year (31.8 ppg, 13.7 rpg, 4.2 apg, 2.0 bpg). Stepping into a starting role in the Mountain West will be a big step up from high school; no doubt there will be some tough days. But it looks like the foundation is there.

I don't think you're entirely wrong, though I tend to think it's more the agents/"sports management" companies who are the biggest danger. In addition to getting a %-age of any NIL deal they make for an athlete, I'm pretty sure that there's compensation from the school or a booster for delivering the goods. Teams need practice players as well as stars. And unfortunately, these kids are ripe for plucking.

I think that college athletes (and their parents), because they've always been successful - and usually the best player on most of their teams, are very prone to optimism bias. They have a tendency to overestimate their chances of positive experiences and underestimate their chances of negative experiences. So when a recruiter, be it a coach or an agent approaches them with a sales pitch, they're extremely susceptible.

Or to put it another way, college athletes have been "failure deprived" during their athletic careers. The bad experiences, like NOT starting, or worse, NOT playing haven't been frequent enough to make them (or their parents) wary. Often they've been protected from failure by their parents, or the "blame" has been placed on "that coach" who didn't realize how good the player was.

It will be interesting, for sure. This is where basketball fans are at a disadvantage vis-a-vis football fans, as far as getting an early read on the team. In FB, spring practices are open, and end with a controlled scrimmage, aka "Spring Game." Nothing like that in BB, at least not at UCD that I'm aware of.

We'll have no idea what's behind the curtain until the first few preseason games. "In Jen we trust", right? She's definitely earned that.

typo. Intended CP for Cal Poly.

"AP?" ???

I'm not sure that UCI's overall revenue stream is larger than ours. For 2024, UCD had $50 million in revenue vs. $55 million in expenditures supporting 25 sports;
UCI had $28.5 million in revenue vs. $31 million in expenditures supporting 18 sports.

Source: KNIGHT-NEWHOUSE College Athletics Database; 2024 is the most recent year currently available. The figures above obviously don't include soft money from boosters that isn't part of the budgetary process.

The differences to me are:
1 - UCD has football expenditures (@13% of total expenditures) which UCI doesn't have.
2 - UCD supports more sports than UCI, so the pot is divided more ways at UCD.
3 - MBB and WBB are UCI's flagship sports (IMHO), which means they are treated more preferentially than is the case for those teams at UCD.
Not that those teams are treated badly at UCD, but football is obviously the Aggies' flagship sport. As such, it consumes not only financial resources, but other departmental resources, like the time and energy that staff put into supporting football. At UCI, those resources are freed up for basketball.
The flagship sport, whatever it is, also drives the institutional decision-making. Rocko has talked about how the conference decision-making never accounted for football, since only Davis and Cal Poly supported football, and how that was a problem.

‘This is a good site for researching college athletic finances: https://knightnewhousedata.org/
They plan to add revenue sharing data once that becomes available.

Neil Zoumboukas, a former roommate, was coaching at USF at that time. He later coached at Oregon under Mike Belotti. Neil said that Williams was the #2 rated D-lineman on the West Coast, behind Al Cowlings of UCLA.

Don't know. Colorful is an understatement!! I believe it was Tom's senior year that he lived in the gym part of the year. Slept on the training room tables, used the showers and the laundry.

I think Thompson may have been the intended 1st look, but Sundown Brown got quick pressure up the middle. I think it was George Mock who barely made a sack-saving block, but Biggs had to move to the right, away from Thompson.

Definitely against Hayward. Lined up opposite Mike Everly.

True, for sure. Though how much of a fraction will go to someone not getting minutes? What's your worth if you don't get on the court?

The article below discusses USC Women's Basketball 2026 Recruiting Class - #1 in the nation. It projects the top six players - JuJU Watkins (6'2" Jr.) is returning from injury, Kennedy Smith (6'1" Jr.) and Jazzy Davidson (6'1" So.) are returning starters from last year's team. Saniyah Hall (6'0" G), Sara Okeke (6'4" F) & Sitaya Fagan (6'4" F) were this year's recruiting class.

Watkins averaged 33+ mpg, 25 ppg 7 rpg 3 apg in her frosh and soph seasons and if I remember correctly, was a ball-dominant guard. Smith was 31 mpg, 10 ppg, 5 rpg 3 apg, and Davidson put up 35 mpg, 18 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg. Don't see any of them moving to the bench, though Watkins may have a minutes restriction at the beginning of the season, Hall, like Watkins and Davidson before her, was the #1 recruit in the nation, so you know Lindsey Gottlieb isn't going to leave her on the end of the bench.

PG Malia Samuels - 19 starts, 23 mpg - basically split the PG with Londynn Jones (graduating), read the tea leaves and transferred to Indiana. Hoping for the best for Ryann Bennett, but I'm wondering where she thinks she'll get minutes??

This is from the Davidson announcement of Ziaka signing with them:

"...In bringing back a large core of 11 players from last year's program-elevating team [19-14;
13-5 A10; 1st round WBIT] and with the addition of our three freshmen with significant pedigree...
The versatility of Angeliki to Share, Shoot, Stifle really jumped off the film when she went into the
transfer portal. She was one of only 15 freshmen in the country to average at least 8.0 points, 3.0
rebounds and 3.0 assists per game during the 2024-25 season. With the physicality and length to be
terrific in our switching defensive scheme, she also made over 30 3-pointers in her first season of
college basketball in the respected WCC. "

Sounds like there were not going to be many available minutes with 11 players returning. Two of the 3 highly regarded freshmen were 6'+ guards. With Ziaka listed as a 6' at USF, but only 5'9" apparently, maybe never going to be a good fit.

The A10 is comparable to the MW and WCC in RPI and NET per Warren Nolan.com