MBB: UC Davis (16-12, 9-7) at CSU Fullerton (16-12, 10-6) Thurs., Feb. 23 at 7:00 pm
  • Toke69
    327
    In what might be their most crucial game of the season, UC Davis heads back south again to face the team that is one game ahead of them in the standings: Cal State Fullerton. Fans will remember that the Aggies won a tough game five weeks ago at Davis as Ty Johnson and Robby Beasley scored a combined 24 points in support of a 29 point perfomance by Eli Pepper. We can only hope that Milling and DeBruhl will be able to make up for the loss of points of both of those players and that, hopefully, Johnson will shake whatever has been affecting his play of late. A stark fact is that the Titans are on a five gamer winning streak with victories over UCR, Hawai`i and UCSB in that span.

    A loss would not be certain to relegate us to 7th place, but with the Beach playing UCSB, a win would put some distance between us and that lower play-in seed and give us a big edge in a tie breaker with the Titans. Also worthy of note, Pepper could break the UCD single season scoring record of 606 points by Randy DeBortoli by scoring at least 10.
    Toke69 Options
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.3k
    Toke, we won the first game against Fullerton 83-79. Beasley had 23 and TY had 20 for a combined 43 points.
    BlueGoldAg Options
  • Toke69
    327
    ↪BlueGoldAg
    Thanks. I must have been looking at the Fullerton page and saw the L. What a blunder. I'll edit the post. Between my mild dyslexia and encroaching senility, someone else will need to start these discussions next season.
    Toke69 Options
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.3k
    ↪Toke69
    No worries, Toke, you're doing just fine. It's a group effort here!
    BlueGoldAg Options
  • MTBAggie
    119
    So what are the odds the Aggies win out to finish the regular season 13-7?
    MTBAggie Options
  • Toke69
    327
    From what I remember of my probability course, I'd put the odds roughly at 8%.
    Toke69 Options
  • DrMike
    743
    ↪MTBAggie
    considering they are playing three teams ahead of them in the standings, AND with injury issues (Beasley, Lose, and maybe Anigwe), I'd lean toward zero percent. And, I tend to be a very optimistic guy on here!
    DrMike Options
  • MTBAggie
    119
    From what I remember of my probability course, I'd put the odds roughly at 8%. — Toke69
    What's the confidence interval on that 8%?

    In my best Jim Carrey voice, "So you're telling me there's a chance!" One game at a time.
    MTBAggie Options
  • eastbayaggie
    99
    https://masseyratings.com/simseason?t=8200&s=500054

    Massey shows 6%.

    It's a 38% chance to beat Cal State Fullerton.
    eastbayaggie Options
  • Toke69
    327
    ↪MTBAggie
    Sorry, it isn't based on any sampling so no confidence interval.
    Toke69 Options
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.3k
    Current Big West standings:

    1. UC Irvine 13-3 20-8
    2.UC Riverside 12-5 19-10
    2. UC Santa Barbara 11-5 20-7
    4. Hawai'i 11-5 20-8
    5. Cal State Fullerton 11-6 17-12
    6. UC Davis 9-7 16-12
    6. Long Beach State 9-7 15-13
    8. CSU Bakersfield 6-10 10-17
    9. UC San Diego 4-12 9-19
    10. CSUN 3-14 6-22
    11. Cal Poly 1-16 7-22
    BlueGoldAg Options
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.3k
    Other Big West games on Thursday:

    Long Beach at Santa Barbara 7 pm
    San Diego at Irvine 7 pm
    Bakersfield at CSUN 7 pm
    Riverside at Hawaii 9 pm
    BlueGoldAg Options
  • Oldbanduhalum
    599
    Well I guess this is no longer the biggest game of year. And per the big west news release, it's us that canceled the game.

    Oldbanduhalum Options
  • SoCalAggie
    60
    I’m confused. What happened since Monday? I didn’t see any injuries that would affect roster eligibility.
    SoCalAggie Options
  • ARI
    1
    Hopefully next year, Big West policy is changed. If you have to cancel a game, that should be an automatic forfeit. Injuries are part of the game. You play with the players you have available.
    ARI Options
  • Russ Bowlus
    337
    "Forfeit" vs "No Contest" is a NCAA-wide rule. The league rules come into effect regarding the minimum number of players (eight, in the case of basketball).
    Russ Bowlus Options
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.3k
    Well that sucks.

    We were getting quite thin with injuries to Beasley, Losé and Anigwe and I saw Milling grabbing at his taped leg although he finished the game. It could be a combination of injuries and illness. I hope it's not Covid. I wouldn't be surprised to see Poly game cancelled on Saturday as well now.
    BlueGoldAg Options
  • DrMike
    743
    ↪BlueGoldAg
    yikes. i wonder how many athletes you need, or if its a matter of scholarship players available? we've been pushing guys hard the past two week (39 minutes for Pepper and Milling).
    DrMike Options
  • Russ Bowlus
    337
    Five starters and three reserves are the minimum squad per the Big West.

    The reason these numbers are at the tip of my fingers is because UC Irvine's WBB team is going through the same thing, and we discussed it in one of the WBB threads. :)
    Russ Bowlus Options
  • AggieFinn
    505
    That's just embarassing.
    AggieFinn Options
  • Oldbanduhalum
    599
    So 8 is the magic number of players. We know Beasley, Loshe, Mani, Henry have all missed recent games (some of them many more than that). Let's assume Anigwe is out, and possibly Milling, based on his "gimpiness" near the end of the last game. That would leave, TY, DeBruhl, Manu, Rocak, Lambey (walk on), Adeybayo, Pepper, and Borra. That totals 8, so either there is another injury we don't know about, or the walk-on doesn't count.
    Oldbanduhalum Options
  • DrMike
    743
    ↪Oldbanduhalum
    I thought I’m the minimum was based on availability of scholarship players, but I could and am probably wrong
    DrMike Options
  • Toke69
    327
    Scott Marsh said at the end of the UCSD game that Anigwe was lying down and did not look very good. If the game had not been cancelled, he would not have played even if the others were healthy and he, along with Pepper, is the one guy that the team can't be without. I feel terrible for the players, who I am sure would have wanted to compete for a win, but a cancellation is better than a forfeit or a loss.
    Toke69 Options
  • agalum
    335
    Did I miss something? How do we know it’s the Ags and not Fullerton?
    agalum Options
  • Oldbanduhalum
    599
    ↪agalum
    this is from the BigWest

    https://bigwest.org/news/2023/2/22/uc-davis-cancels-thursdays-mens-basketball-game-at-cal-state-fullerton.aspx
    Oldbanduhalum Options
  • agalum
    335
    ↪Oldbanduhalum

    Bummer. Thanks
    agalum Options
  • Toke69
    327
    Has anyone heard anything about the status of Saturday's game at SLO? It would seem doubtful.
    Toke69 Options
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.3k
    There's an interesting discussion going on over on the Big West Boards Men's Basketball forum where some folks feel like Aggies may be taking advantage of the Big West "no contest" rule. The general thinking is that the rule makes it easy for a team like the Aggies to simply cancel the game without penalty rather than play it with a depleted roster.

    So, they essentially saying that if the Ags had to take a loss via a forfeit, they might be more inclined to show up and play the game with a depleted roster rather than to cancel it without penalty. In other words, the Ags can escape what is likely a "sure loss" and their decision to cancel can then negatively affect other teams in the overall standings and in the Big West Tournament seeding since they don't have an opportunity to get a probable "sure win" against the Aggies.

    https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/bigwest/uc-davis-why-are-you-copying-us-that-s-our-strateg-t27192.html
    BlueGoldAg Options
  • Russ Bowlus
    337
    1) I doubt Coach Les is gaming the system like that.
    2) If they have a problem with the forfeit/no-contest rule, they need to take it up with the NCAA.

    Section 3. Forfeit/No Contest
    Art. 1. A forfeit is the termination of the game by the referee by declaring one
    team the winner by forfeit.
    Art. 2. The referee shall declare a forfeit when:
    a. Any player, team member or bench personnel fails to comply with any
    flagrant or technical-foul penalty or makes a travesty of the game.
    b. When conditions warrant.
    c. A team refuses to play after being instructed to do so by an official.
    Art. 3. The referee shall determine the length of time that shall elapse before a
    forfeit may be declared.
    Art. 4. Conference policy may include an established time limit before the
    referee may declare a forfeit.
    Art. 5. When a forfeit is declared, the score shall be recorded as 2-0 and all statistics
    (other than the teams’ and head coaches’ won-lost records) shall be voided, unless
    30 minutes of playing time has been completed on the game clock. In that case, the
    score at the end of play shall stand and all other statistics shall count.
    Art. 6. When the team that is behind in the scorebook is to be declared
    the winning team, that score shall be marked with an asterisk in the official
    statistics; and it shall be noted that the game was won by forfeit.
    Art. 7. A “no contest” is when a team does not appear at the game site because
    of inclement weather, an accident, vehicle breakdown, illness or catastrophic
    cause. An institution shall not, for statistical purposes, declare a forfeit for nonfulfillment of a contract, but rather shall declare a “no contest.” When officials
    are not present or available to officiate, there cannot be a sanctioned game/
    contest.

    Article 7 is the applicable rule in this case.
    Russ Bowlus Options
  • Oldbanduhalum
    599
    I agree, none of the BW coaches would try and avoid a team by stretching the no-contest rule. All these teams want to compete.
    Oldbanduhalum Options
  • DrMike
    743
    ↪Russ Bowlus
    still can't find a definitive answer to how many players a team has to have in order to use the no-contest rule. my google skills have not been up to the task. i read a COVID era article that the Big12 rule was 7 available scholarship players. No idea about the Big West
    DrMike Options
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