Either way, isn't a test that is wrong 50% of the time, useless?

: "One nostril positive, one negative": https://people.com/health/erykah-badu-coronavirus-test-conflicting-results-nostrils/

My understanding is that PCR looks for virus DNA while the rapid antigen test looks for a particular protein on the surface of the virus that interacts with our immune system. The criticisms I've heard are that the PCR test is sensitive, perhaps too sensitive at picking up non-infectious virus fragments (false positive) while the rapid test is maybe not sensitive enough for pre/mild symptomatic people that have marginal levels of this protein (false negative). I'm not a biologist, so if I am not understanding this correctly, please help me learn.

@movielover From what I gather, both tests are reasonably accurate for people with significant viral load but the stats are much worse for cases at the margins depending on the test, the problem being that some people at the margins are contagious and don't know it. So you're right that 50% accuracy is not very helpful in some scenarios, especially when someone uses one potentially false negative as free license to get up close and personal with others.

That sounds right. I was referring to “antigen” in contrast to an antibody test. I guess pcr would be classified into a subcategory, “molecular test.”

Not sure why Musk is getting a Covid test. He said it would be gone by the end of April.

COVID testing required every 7 days starting 12/1 to access campus. Did my first one this morning. They are fast and efficient. I was impressed by the efficiency. I can easily see this incorporated to screen fans prior to events to improve safety. Turn around time is supposed to be 24-48 hours.

I did mine there yesterday. Very efficient and well organized. Got my results (negative) in 22 hours.

Is the testing available to the general public?

From what I understand, the testing at the ARC is for students and employees (and if you have business on campus). BUT, UC Davis is making it available to Davis residents at the Davis Senior center. Here is article about it from the Enterprise:

https://www.davisenterprise.com/local-news/ucd-rolls-out-free-saliva-based-covid-testing-for-davis-residents/

Jon Miller@MillerStream
"Despite the virus, US deaths this year are literally no worse than they've been for the last 10, and may even be on track to go DOWN.

2010: 2.5M
2011: 2.5M
2012: 2.5M
2013 :2.6M
2014: 2.6M
2015: 2.7M
2016: 2.7M
2017: 2.8M
2018: 2.8M
2019: 2.9M
2020: 2.5M (as of Nov.)"

https://twitter.com/MillerStream/status/1338203809114296321?s=20

To be, as they say, "fair and balanced":
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-chart-us-death-figures-2020/fact-check-chart-does-not-present-accurate-us-deaths-figure-for-2020-idUSKBN2872MV

July 1:

Deaths and hospitalizations consistently down in most areas. — movielover

LOL.

July 4:

New Covid19 graphs, now under 500 deaths per day (down from 2,000). — movielover

LOL

July 6:

Fantastic News.

Alleged Covid19 deaths per day drop from 2701 (May 6th) to 212 (yesterday). An over 90% drop. — movielover

LOL

July 20:

Covid mortality update (daily)

July 20 - 390
May 6 - 2701 — movielover

LOL

This might be a foreign concept to you, but it's generally a good idea to get a complete count before finalizing it rather than stopping partway through.

Our numbers are catapulted by New York, New Jersey, and about 3-4 other states... we apparently focused on protecting over 330 Million, instead of focusing on the frail & elderly.

Amazingly, we're shipping multiple vaccines- when it typically takes 6-7 years?

Good work cmt, 72; keep it up just to keep the record straight. Sadly, movie has chugged down the Kool Aide. No way he is going to be turned around; the truth be damned.

Maybe the overall numbers, but don't act like this isn't blowing up everywhere. Most cases per 1M people are North Dakota and South Dakota (those two are 4 and 9 in deaths per 1M people). We're at 16 states where over 1 in 1000 people have died from Covid.

Another perspective:

Alex Berenson@AlexBerenson

"1/ The usual suspects will hate me for saying so, but the truth is the truth.

"We have solid @cdcgov mortality data through mid-November and it is clear that we are now massively OVERCOUNTING #Covid deaths and have been for months.

"This wasn't true in the spring. It is now...

"2/ The simplest and most obvious evidence of this is that overall deaths are far below where the combination of "normal" weekly deaths plus #Covid deaths would put them.

"In other words, so-called non-Covid deaths have dropped well below normal. This trend makes no sense...

"3/ We saw a rise in lockdown deaths (especially overdoses) this spring and summer, and we have no evidence or reason to believe those would have returned to normal (and some evidence of rising suicides). Deaths from delayed medical care may have fallen, but we can't be sure...."

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1338969237424123905?s=20

Of coarse, Billionaire Bill Gates wants to keep working stiffs locked down for 6 or more months, meaning more lost jobs, homes, apartments, declining mental health, our poorest children suffer educationally & socially... as they're kept hostage by the teacher's associations?

4-6 months is very extreme and it won't be that long. They've rolled out one vaccine already, with others coming quickly. Officially, we're at around 17M having caught the virus but the general thought is at best, we've only caught half the cases with the more likely estimate being only 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 due to tests not being available early, people not getting tested, people not having symptoms severe enough to get tested or being asymptomatic. So realistically, at least 10% of the US has caught it, and we're probably looking at 15-20%. We're still at 200K per day officially, which is 1.4M per week. That's 0.5% of the population per week. Double that, and we're probably at 1% of the population getting it each week. So by the end of January, we'll be at 20-25% having caught it. And that's before people getting vaccinated.

The next major hurdle is Christmas. We didn't see as much of a Thanksgiving bump as expected. It was more of a continuation of the trend of cases skyrocketing. All of the trackers show the daily case 7 day average having leveled off. The last day or two has actually seen a slight downturn (we'll see if that's just a blip or a trend). Hopefully Christmas follows Thanksgiving in not having a noticeable bump, though we won't know until mid-January.

As more people get infected and people start getting the vaccine, there will be fewer and fewer people to catch and spread the virus. If I could bet on it, I'd bet on restaurants being open way sooner than 6 months. If you made that 4 months, I'd still bet the under and wouldn't think twice.

Open up outside dining ASAP, and get children back in school.

My understanding is that restaurants only account for an estimated 1.5% of cases.

Nobody wants to eat outside now when it's cold, rainy and windy. If you enclose these outdoor seating areas enough to make people comfortable, they'll no longer be outside since you'll have enclosures on all four sides, or at least three. I'm guessing its not financially viable for many restaurants to have outdoor seating now anyway.

What actually needs to happen is the government needs to provide help to small businesses and people that actually need it rather than let big companies in on the grift. Keep as much as possible closed for a few more weeks and reevaluate.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (KABC) --California on Wednesday reported a record-breaking 53,711 new cases of COVID-19, the highest number of cases the state has seen in a single day since the pandemic began.

The alarming number of new cases surpasses a record set just three days ago when California recorded 35,729 new cases.

The state now has 1,671,081 cases in total.

Another 293 people died of the virus in the 24-hour period, bringing California's death toll to 21,481, which marks the highest number of deaths in a single day. The state is averaging 163 virus deaths per day, up from 63 just two weeks ago.

Another 14,939 Californians remain hospitalized with the virus and 3,188 patients are in the ICU, both of which break records for the highest number of hospitalizations and intensive care patients to date.
The state's latest COVID-19 data came as the Southern California region's ICU capacity dropped to an alarming .5%.

https://abc7.com/health/california-reports-record-53711-new-covid-cases-in-1-day/8825817/

Agree with your point about helping workers, but don’t want to be too warm and fuzzy on small business owners as a group. Some good ones, but I also know many (specifically restaurant owners) who are bona fide jerks and have earned their karma. In states with a lower minimum wage for tipped workers, the workers who haven’t been reporting their tips found themselves in a jam of not being eligible for much help. Sort of their own doing, but COVID has helped highlight how the restaurant industry needs top to bottom wage and benefit reform.

https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/uc-davis-health-is-prepared-to-receive-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine/2020/12

Amazing vaccine turnaround. Eight months?

(BTW, the MSM said it was impossible.)

Do we really need to potentially sit on 400,000 vials? Wouldn't we ramp up & roll it out ASAP? We're not New York City.

King of Sweden admits herd immunity strategy was a failure

Amazing... Almost like we should have been listening to the scientists the whole time.

Pfizer has doses of vaccine ready, Trump admin stalling distribution

What a guy

Even liberal NPR says the situation is "complicated". (Not Orange Man bad.)

- first shipment arrived a week early!
- HHS claims Pfizer has production issues
- 2 Million doses scheduled for next week
- 5-6 years ahead of normal vaccine delivery

https://www.npr.org/2020/12/18/948030235/pfizer-says-millions-of-vaccine-doses-are-ready-but-states-say-shipments-were-cu

FoxBusiness: Walgreens begins administering Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine in long-term care facilities

"...“The company will continue to expand vaccinations to nearly 3 million residents and staff at 35,000 long-term care facilities that have selected Walgreens as their vaccine provider as states finalize their distribution plans and receive vaccine allocations,” the company said."

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

"Congratulations, the Moderna vaccine is now available!"

Vaccine #2. CNBC said 5.9 Million doses would ship next week.

More good news.

The shipped vials apparantly have a full extra (unexpected) dose.

I didn't bother reading all the comments above, but the dose regimen, are there supplemental doses to the vaccine? I mean a sequence of sorts, I know most think it's one shot and you're done, but I thought I read that follow up treatments/injections might be necessary.