100% agree with you that the current situation isn't optimal. I'm going further - the current situation isn't
sustainable. I'm not just talking about Cal and Stanford playing in the ACC, which I agree is ridiculous.
I'm talking about the current business model for all of college athletics. I also agree that a radical shift needs to happen - and I think it probably will happen. Just NOT the shift you propose.
In FY 2024 (most recent data), Ohio State University had total athletic revenue of $254.9 million, but expenditures were $295.1 million, resulting in a loss of $37.8 million (12.8%). Though the school characterized this as a "one-time event", data shows that between 2019-2024, Ohio State Athletics lost money in 4 of 6 years. During the same 6 year period, Ohio State Athletics debt rose from $250 million to $287 million. That's a hefty debt to service.
The football program, and probably men's basketball, likely were profitable, but I haven't found figures. The other 30 athletic programs apparently generated total losses in excess of $38 million, after factoring in the FB and MBB profits. And this was pre-House settlement. Starting next year, schools like Ohio State will have another $20.5 million in yearly liabilities due to revenue sharing per the House settlement.
That's why Ohio State supported a $2.4 billion private-capital deal between the Big 10 and UC Investments that would have sent a minimum of $100 million each Big 10 school. The deal died last month because of opposition from Michigan and USC. The chair of Michigan's Board of Regents noted that
until "runaway spending was addressed", the deal was simply akin to a "payday loan." Michigan and USC were also concerned that despite assurances, it put assets of member universities at risk.
The University of Utah recently took that risk and individually signed a private equity deal with Otero Capital. I've seen articles indicating that other PE firms are interested, including the Saudi Public Investment Fund. PE firms are not noted for caring about anything but making money. Certainly not about funding schools, creating jobs, or providing opportunities for kids to stay in-state for school/sports.
This is the crossroads coming for the P4 schools, and maybe others that want to play in their sandpile: Costs / spending needs to be cut, Business 101 says that nonprofitable sports get the axe. There goes other 30 sports at Ohio State...except oops, there's good old Title IX. Not to mention pissing off the alumni who played those sports or boosters whose kids played those sports.
That's the underlying rationale as to why I don't see a CA Conference, such as you've proposed, as a viable option, be it with your original list of schools, or including starting FB at the UC's who currently don't offer that sport. Your proposal means more schools getting into a P4-style arms race, and I think that's the wrong way to go.