Montana State has played consistently well throughout the season wheras Davis has only played to that same level for the last few games. Davis had a pattern of giving up scores late to make games they had control of early narrow wins. Idaho game is an example of that.
Montana State’s statistical advantage over Davis is their defense, both in points allowed and yardage totals, but Davis is narrowing that gap over the last few games.

Idaho is in the conversation for a top eight seed only by people who haven’t noticed the Davis win over Montana. That ended the but who have they played argument against Davis, as now they can say they beat Idaho and Montana.
Idaho’s out of conference schedule appeared tougher early in the season than it appears now. Wyoming is a weak FBS team and Albany and Abilene Christian are weaker than Southern Utah

I’m not sure if his helmet came off, but i think it was this play:
SG] HASTINGS, Miles pass up the middle complete for 8 yards to DOBBINS, Stacy caught at the UM45 and advanced to the UM45 (GRADNEY, Trevin), 1ST DOWN. PENALTY UM Face mask on GRADNEY, Trevin enforced 15 yards from the end of the play at the UM45 to the UM30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN.

The next game is a bigger game than yesterday’s., because its for the league title.
I would say it is bigger than a than a first or second round playoff game. Part of that is Davis has such a loss streak going with this team, similar to Eastern Washington.

Davis was not below average 1AA team in most of the Biggs era. 2006 they were ranked half the season and beat Montana State on the road 45-0. In 2008 they lost to a ranked Montana team by five points in Montana
They played in a conference which often has 3 of the 5 teams ranked.North Dakota State, South Dakota State and Cal Poly were all ranked teams. They beat San Jose State in 2010. They did hover around .500 but with a tough schedule.

Delaware is transitioning, which is why they are unranked. Not much of an upset if at all.

It is just math for the computer rankings. No bias, thats what the algorithm yields.
By the way we look better in a tiny way because East Texas A&M won against Stephen F Austin, and SUU beat Northern Alabama.

i don’t think bidding is involved. Sixteen team are seeded top eight get a bye, next eight get a home game.

Plough press availability after game[
https://406mtsports.com/uc-davis-coach-tim-plough-on-30-14-win-at-montana/video_743bfbd6-3f45-597c-8cd1-605e042f5a73.html

This is a big win for all the reasons you mention, but it is far from the biggest upset, that has to be the Stanford game.
This game Davis’ defense really stepped up. They’ve gotten a lot of credit for the last two years, but mostly for drive stopping plays, not for a complete game, like this one where they held the score down, yield little yardage, forced turnovers and turnovers on downs. Won the physical battle.

Biggs mentored Plough as a coach, he and Moroski let Plough call plays when Plough was 25 years old. Plough owes his coaching career to Biggs.

Mateo Perez is not in his last year of eligibility.

I'm a fan of tradition, but that cheer seems like a joke I don’t get. There must be some meaning to it.
The cheerleaders used to stand on metal milk bottles which I’m ok with.

Portland State travels by bus to and from Sacramento. according to the TV broadcast team. Strange considering airports near both cities.

Sagarin now has the ratings for Montana State and Davis separated only by seven points, and Davis will be home.
Montana State hasn’t played their toughest opponents yet, Montana and Davis. Bobcats have looked good winning but no better than Davis the last few weeks. The thing that separates them is Montana State’s defense has been tough all year but Davis has the potential to be better than shown most of the season.

Dobbins played. Why do you think he might be hurt?

Cody and Plough both moved to Northern Arizona after Biggs retired, with Cody moving to College of Idaho in 2016. Cody returned to Davis and briefly overlapped with Plough in the Covid era, but no football was played. Cody was going to be the tight end coach until Plough and Keane left, after which he took over Keane’s offensive line responsibilities.

Scott Marsh Gordon several times this season has said that Mike Cody went to Boise with Plough, mistaking Mike.for.Tim Keane

That was from 2023, when he weighed 208lbs at day of test. He weighs 215 now according to roster

Laughable.
NAU is unlikely to be Davis’ first round opponent:There may only be four Big Sky teams. NAU in his projected outcomes would not have beat any playoff team, and would have an FCS record of 7-3. Their best win would be Sac who he forecasts to lose to MSU and Davis, leaving Sac with a losing record. Only losing to good teams means little unless you beat a good team and Sac wouldn’t look good in that scenario.

Why is Idaho 9-3 the fifth seed when their resume includes no wins against any team in the playoffs aside from NAU, which is questionable being in? Davis would be 9-3 with a win over Idaho. Beating Wyoming shouldn’t count that much considering they are 1-7. Albany and Abilene Christian now look not more impressive than Davis beating Southern Utah.

What I’d like to see is that Davis holds Northern Colorado to less than their average conference game points while scoring more than their average points. That ignores the fact that Davis has an above average defense while Northern Colorado has an average defense in terms of point scored against, so should be achievable. Montana just shut out N.C. Davis has a better defense than Montana, by six points a game in conference play. Davis is averaging 39.8 in conference games and Northern Colorado is averaging 11.3.

Semaj Verner has missed the last two games. I was surprised to see him listed as one of the top graded corners in FCS. He is a high level athlete who up to this year hadn’t had the opportunity to really show it at Boise or here. Anyone know his status?