What I’d like to see is that Davis holds Northern Colorado to less than their average conference game points while scoring more than their average points. That ignores the fact that Davis has an above average defense while Northern Colorado has an average defense in terms of point scored against, so should be achievable. Montana just shut out N.C. Davis has a better defense than Montana, by six points a game in conference play. Davis is averaging 39.8 in conference games and Northern Colorado is averaging 11.3.

Semaj Verner has missed the last two games. I was surprised to see him listed as one of the top graded corners in FCS. He is a high level athlete who up to this year hadn’t had the opportunity to really show it at Boise or here. Anyone know his status?

I’m not vouching for the accuracy of Massey probabilities. Just saying what they imply if accurate,.
As you say these forecasts are all based on the past, if for some reason a team has underperformed its talent, or not been motivated to win by unnecessary margins, or had injuries that affected score margins the past is not predictive. While I don’t know Massey’s algorithm I believe they just estimate point spreads, and correlate that point spread with the historical probability of a win.
Davis hasn’t played to win by the biggest margin possible and has also had some player availability issues that are mostly resolved. Davis has allowed a lot of late scores after the game is decided. I believe Davis is a better team than comparative scores indicate.

Idaho is favored in their remaining games, if they win those they’ll be 9-3
Montana favored in three of their four remaining game, if they win those they’ll be 9-3
Montana State is favored in all their remaining games, if they win those they’ll be 12-0
NAU played Lincoln this year, so they only have 3 division 1 wins, if they win out they’ll only have two conference losses, which would be better than the three losses we would have in league if we lost the last three games. That may not get them in over an 8-4 Davis as I don’t think conference record would outweigh being 7-4, when their best win would be Weber or Sac State. Weber’s already lost five games, so I think they are out of playoff contention. Same with Sac unless they win out including beating MSU and Davis, that might get them to a very impressive 7-5.
Davis might squeeze in at 8-4 as the last Big Sky team, but not a sure thing.

They’ve run the ball more effectively the last two games, and Cal Poly had a statistically strong run defense.
I don’t think it would be a knock on either of the running backs we use to play Fisher enough to develop depth. The kid has a gift. He may have some deficiencies that aren’t apparent to us fans, but I’d hate to see him go elsewhere in search of playing time,

More likely than not that they’ll be 9-3.
They are said in the post by BlueGoldAg to have a 98% chance of winning against Northern Colorado, Since none of this is known to 2 significant figures we can ignore the probability of them losing that game.

Everyone likes Fisher from the little we've seen of him. He actually had almost as much game experience as Perez coming into this season, so they don't have that as an excuse.

The probability of Davis losing all three games given those probabilities of losing each of those game is 25%. (.69 * .70 * .52)
So Massey is predicting there is a 75% likelihood Davis will be 9-3 or better.

Eastern knocking of Montana State would be a good thing because Eastern isn’t going to be competitive as far as a playoff spot is concerned. A loss for MSU in that game enhances the possibility that Davis wins the conference title.
But you don’t want Sac or Montana, two teams whose seasons are going to be compared with Davis for playoff bids or seedings to beat MSU if Davis doesn’t.

Montana State faces Eastern Washington on Nov. 2nd.

Hawaii is in a bigger pond, both geographically and in football level.

The Dakota and Montana teams benefit from no higher level football in their states. Governors go to their games. They are the biggest fish in a small pond, so that gives them a base of support. In most states the sport coverage focuses on higher levels.

Who would have guessed that the bottom 3 Big Sky defenses for points per game allowed in conference games at this point would be Sacramento (39.0), Montana (41.3) and Eastern Washington (42.7)?
Davis is giving up 25, third best, but the conference teams they’ve played with the exception of Eastern Washington are in the lower half of the conference in scoring.

The most common coach perspective is that everything that happens is under the control of his team and they only build up the opponent before the game.

My favorite play was CJ Hutton’s 40 yard run, where he just ran squarely into a safety 15 yards down field , bounced off him and then continued another 25 yards for a touchdown. Hutton runs like a running back.

I think so. As a freshman Toki was listed as an offensive lineman, and he’s played on field goals as a lineman but I don’t believe he was ever in the backfield. Chubba did that last year.

Who started at corner in place of Alexander?
Live stats link is broke.

Just going by guys who haven’t played, recently the team has been without backup defensive ends Carrillo and Carrade, linebacker Garretson , cornerbacks Verner and McWilliams.
They played Antzoulatos, Sarac, and Cloyd st Garreton’s spot so they appear ok there.
They got some good play from Newman and Masui as reserve defensive ends, but those guys are a fall off as far as pass rush from Carrillo and Carrade.
Alexander, last years starter at cornerback played Verner and McWilliams position.

What if anything have you heard about the status of Verner or McWilliams?

Seems impractical with all different helmets. If Davis does it they should mention what the sticker signifies, great game, games played, games started or what. Maybe someone here knows.

The 105 scholarship limit is an attempt by the top conferences to restrict competition.There was a temporary need to increase the scholarships because of the extra year of eligibility, that need is about expired.
The top FBS teams will have sitting on their bench unused talent that used to be in conferences like the Mountain West. The top conference’s level of play will very marginally increase while lower level conferences talent and FCS will significantly decline, and not be as competitive for TV contracts.