It looks like UCD has won. I'm busy doing something else. Can anyone confirm?

Uhh. ... My livestats say UCD is slightly winning in OT. No one is commenting? Or is everyone paying attention to the Causeway?

Since the UC Davis Health Stadium snuck up on practically all of us, when do you think phase 3 will start? I shall define phase 3 as significantly expanding the number of seats in the stadium.

This might help increase the chance of the game being played on Saturday! :)

https://www.sfgate.com/california-wildfires/article/uc-davis-rocks-camp-fire-wildfires-facebook-13392272.php

Edit: I think it's working! The air quality index just dropped from 151 to 114! :)
Edit2: Holy crap! Auburn is at 824 right now! Is this the side effect of the rock throwing?

... heh.

I'm quite sure they don't factor fire containment in the equation just as much as I'm quite sure Sagarin and Massey don't factor key injuries in their equation.

Edit: The forecast is way off for today anyway since it forecasted air quality of 6 to 21.

There's interesting detailed air quality data for Davis over here:

http://aqicn.org/city/california/yolo/davis-ucd-campus/#s:308

Apparently the range for the past 48 hours is anywhere from 25 to 236. As of this typing, it's at 200.
If I'm reading this correctly, then the forecast is that it will get progressively worse up to Thursday. It doesn't seem to predict more than 2.5 days ahead.

I decided to look at the worst air quality in the world.

The top four I can find are:

Elazig, Turkey: 895
Turpan, China: 714
A water treatment plant at Delhi, India: 685
Schivenoglia, Italy: 622

I guess it can be significantly worse. :/

Apparently the 49ers are playing when the air quality is below 200. According to one site:

"At 10 a.m. the Air Quality Index for Santa Clara was at 164 — well below the maximum limit of 200 set by the league."

Perhaps if the Causeway game is below 200, then we should be fine?

It's really interesting how often the real time air quality has changed at Davis. It's currently the second worst in California at 229 or "very unhealthy." Sacramento is the third worst at 226. I'm quite sure it will change significantly within two hours. Chico is the worst at 331 or "hazardous."

I'm quite sure the game will be cancelled at the current level.

I use this site to monitor California's real time air quality. I saw Davis went from "unhealthy for sensitive groups" to "unhealthy" this morning.

https://aqicn.org/map/california/#@g/37.7194/-121.6516/8z

Does the field look wet to you?

It's very thick and cloudy from my Spokane location. It's supposed to be mostly sunny. Is it sunny from your location? I want sun!

https://bigskyconf.com/news/2014/11/14/FB_1114145749.aspx

2014 -TIE-BREAKER
When two or more Conference members are tied in the final Conference standings, the tie shall be broken for purposes of determining the NCAA FCS automatic bid only, and shall be determined on the following basis:
1. Head-to-head Competition
2.Record against common CONFERENCE opponents in descending order
3. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents
4. Sagarin Rating
5. Coin Flip

I don't know if newer tiebreaker rules exist.

It looks like if we lose the game today, we're not likely to get the auto bid. If we win today, then we'll likely win the auto bid. I guess that seems obvious, but it's good to see the rules behind it.

The Sagarin Rating as the fourth tiebreaker is a surprise to me.

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/nov/09/showdown-in-cheney-fifth-ranked-eastern-washington/

The following may be part of their game plan:

“(UC Davis) has a pretty physical secondary,” Grady said. “They’re athletic, they have guys that can move and cover, but they’re definitely beatable. I’m hoping we take more shots over the top with (Barriere’s) arm, and they have a couple guys who are susceptible to getting beat over the top.”

Here are the odds for clinching clear first in the Big Sky after tomorrow's games using Massey's game odds:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/games

Odds of UC Davis winning: 42%
Odds of Weber State losing: 10%

Odds of clinching clear first: .42 * .10 = 4.2% or about 1 in 24 chance

My view from Spokane

I'm in Spokane right now, and it's currently snowing. Game time is mostly sunny though with temperatures around 38F. I hate cold weather.

I haven't studied the Bears.

Also, as a comparison, we're now ranked higher than UCLA. :)

California is projected to beat us 30 to 23.This is a preview for next year. :)