Here's an update to the Massey rankings related to our schedule:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2018/ncaa-d1/ratings

Current - School - (Previous)

#33 Stanford (#30)
#86 UC Davis (#86)
#97 Eastern Washington (#97)
#123 Idaho State (#126)
#144 San Jose State (#137)
#145 Montana (#157)
#148 Idaho (#159)
#179 Cal Poly (#179)
#181 San Diego (#192) Up 1
#187 Northern Arizona (#184) Down 1
#201 Northern Colorado (#197)
#207 Sacramento State (#209)

It's been quite static this week. San Diego moves up one since they keep on winning against their weaker scheduled teams.

San Jose State, Montana, and Idaho appear to be similar quality of teams.

As CA Forever and CK2 have said above, UCD and Eastern Washington will be a good matchup.

Heh. I had the same thought too. I prefer ISU to win for SOS purposes since I consider Weber State and Eastern Washington as bigger threats for conference championships.

Interesting. Game tied 7-7 early in fourth.

North Dakota State ahead of Youngstown State 7-6 late in the third quarter.

I'm not sure why Ulonzo hasn't played since.

Did Ulonzo Gilliam play yet?

My guess for a sell out looks pretty bad right now.

Using Massey game odds:
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/games

Eastern Washington's chance of losing: 9%
Idaho State's chance of losing: 35%
Weber State's chance of losing: 2%
UC Davis's chance of winning: 95%

9% * 35% * 2% * 95% = 0.06% or about 1 in 1700

There's about a 1 in 1700 chance that UC Davis will clinch the Big Sky after Saturday's games.

https://m.herosports.com/fcs/football-mailbag-kennesaw-jsu-uc-davis-bzbz

Alex Bonser: Does UC Davis get seeded if they pick up a second loss, or do they have to run the table?

Brian: I think that depends on who they lose to, by how much, and what the other top teams are doing. Vague enough? Let me give you a scenario ... let's say UC Davis wins two and falls at Eastern Washington by 3 points in overtime ... I think UC Davis is likely still a 6 to 8 seed because frankly, it still doesn't have an FCS loss.

On the flip side, if UC Davis loses at home by 20 to Sacramento State in the season finale, that will be looked at differently than an overtime loss to EWU on the road. So those are the dynamics, I think.

Chase: This is an interesting question. On the one hand, UC Davis could definitely take a loss in Cheney and still have the resume of a playoff seed -- wins over Idaho State and Montana look nice, and the FBS win is better on paper than it is in reality. On the other hand, it does seem pretty unlikely that the Big Sky gets three playoff seeds.

If I'm an Aggies fan, I'm framing the Eastern Washington game as a seeding elimination game in my head, with the knowledge that Davis could probably still slip into a seeded position when it's all said and done.

Sam: It depends who the loss is to, really. If it happens against EWU and the Eagles don't suffer any losses from here on out, you'd think EWU would get a seed in front of UC Davis. And a lot would have to go wrong for Weber to drop out of the seeds. While it is possible, I don't see three Big Sky teams getting a seed.

Even with a loss to EWU, UC Davis could arguably still have a better overall resume than the Eagles. But it appears the committee really values head to head wins.

According to last game's box score, we were at capacity at 10849.

https://ucdavisaggies.com/boxscore.aspx?id=2745&path=football

I thought the James Madison thread discussing last year's thinking process below was interesting:

https://csnbbs.com/thread-861737.html

They also believe that if UC Davis and James Madison win out, then UCD will take the #2 seed over James Madison due to the strength of schedule.

Copied text below this line:

The first official rankings from the FCS Committee will be released this Thursday (11/2) at halftime of the ESPNU game. The second set will be released next Thursday (11/9) on ESPNU. The Selection Show will be on Sunday 11/19.

There have been a few other threads discussing hypotheticals and scenarios, but I want to share the following.

At-large teams shall be selected by the NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee, assisted by four regional
advisory committees that serve in an advisory capacity only.
The following principles shall apply when selecting at-large teams:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket. Per NCAA
Bylaw 31, the basic criteria used in the selection of at-large participants are (1) won-lost record,
(2) strength of schedule, and (3) eligibility and availability of student-athletes for the NCAA championship;
2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference;
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, fewer than
six Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents;
5. If a committee member’s institution is under consideration, that committee member will not be allowed in the room during
discussions involving his/her team and may not vote for his/her team during the voting process. Similarly, a committee
member from a conference office may not be present during discussions, nor vote for any team from his/her conference.

The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will use the NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) as a tool for
evaluating teams for selection into the 24-team championship.
The NCAA SRS is a ranking system used to gauge team quality. Within the NCAA SRS, the rating of a team will be calculated
largely by two components: a strength-of-schedule measure (SOS) and a win-loss differential (WL).
A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.
A team’s WL measure factors whether a game was won or lost; the location of the game (home/away/neutral site); and the
NCAA (sub)division of the opponent.
1. In a game between two FCS teams played at a neutral site, the winning team gets one point and the losing team loses
one point.
2. In a game between two FCS teams played at a non-neutral site, a home win counts 0.75 for the home team and -0.75 for
the losing team. A road team win counts 1.25 for the visiting team and -1.25 for the home team. In other words, there
is a bonus/penalty of +/- 0.25 for the home/away teams depending on the outcome.
3. An additional bonus/penalty of +/- 0.1 is added/deducted for games that FCS teams play against FBS/non-Division I
opponents. For instance, a home FCS win against a Division II opponent counts only as +0.65 points (0.75 for a home
win - 0.1 penalty for playing a Division II opponent). In addition, a road FCS win against an FBS opponent counts +1.35
points for the FCS team (1.25 points for a road win + 0.1 bonus for beating an FBS opponent).
4. The WL measure is then doubled to equalize the contributions of the WL factor and SOS factor toward a team’s NCAA
SRS rating.
5. Margin of victory will be factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating. This component is capped at 21 points.
The teams’ ratings are independent in that one team’s rating depends on its opponents’ ratings, which depend on their
opponents’ ratings, etc., based on the “network” of college football games played each week during the football season. The
NCAA SRS will also standardize the data in order to equalize the variance in total number of games played (i.e., 11 or 12
regular-season games).
Games against Division III or non-NCAA opponents are not factored into any team’s NCAA SRS rating.
The time of the season in which a game is played (early-season versus late-season games) is also not factored into a team’s
NCAA SRS rating.
The NCAA SRS will not “force select” any teams into the championship; rather, it is one of several resources that
the Division I Football Championship Committee will have at its disposal when debating the merits of teams under
consideration for championship selection.
The NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee will begin reviewing NCAA SRS data during the later portion of the
football season as it prepares for champion.

According to our last Idaho State home game, "...the third sellout crowd in Aggie Stadium history."

https://ucdavisaggies.com/news/2018/10/13/football-capacity-crowd-witnesses-homecoming-classic-14-uc-davis-wins-in-ot-44-37.aspx?path=football

So, yeah. It will sell out.

As a matter of fact, I just bought my tickets for the Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington games just now.

I'm guessing that the Aggie home game will sell out that day, but the Eastern Washington game will sell out before that game day.

Here's the fifth bracketology website update I've found this week:

USD/WSU winner at No. 4 UC Davis

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/fcs-playoffs-til-i-die-taking-a-week-off/

Cumulatively, I think that would be three #2, one #3, two #4, and one #5.

I guess you could say the median bracketology pick is #3.

i frankly would be surprised if it's not a sellout.

.

i think i remembered your Great West write ups back in the day, and I've always enjoyed reading them.

For some odd reason, your Southern Utah pick as the deep sleeper to win the Great West a long time ago stuck in my mind.

I'm hoping to see more write ups from you in the future.

Here's the fourth bracketology website update within the past 1.5 days:

https://m.herosports.com/fcs/football-playoff-predictions-sdsu-delaware-ndsu-bzbz

Two people picked us at #2 and one person picked us at #5.

Ha! I was thinking of going there too. Since I'm a fair weather guy, in a very literal sense, I'm not going if it's raining. My weather source says sunshine but 30% chance of showers the day beforehand. That's something I will monitor everyday.

A #2 seed playing the winner of Eastern Washington and San Diego:
http://www.nobowls.com/

If they don't post on BigSky TV soon, then I may be forced to attend the next two home games instead of my original conflicting plans. I don't want to be dependent on late BigSky TV replays in the future.