Week 6: UC Davis @ Idaho State I think those teams all had better resume's than a 9-2 UCD team would this year. Us losing to Idaho State is way worse than any loss those teams had. Of the 12 combined losses, 6 were to FBS teams, 5 were to each other and the last was to North Dakota, a 7-5 playoff team. But your general point is correct that when you're in a good conference, like the Big Sky/CAA/MVFC, you get the benefit of the doubt. A 7-5 team in those conferences is still a pretty solid team. Look at the 2019 Aggies, who went 5-7, which looks bad. However, we lost to Cal, NDST (National Champs), Montana (6 seed, QF), North Dakota (playoffs, 1st round), Weber (3 seed, SF), Montana State (5 seed, SF) and Sac St (4 seed, R16) and the only team we really got hammered by was Montana. Weber you could argue since we down 22 in the 4th but we were also only down 5 mid 3rd. That team was good, only losing to playoff teams, and still went 5-7.
.500 Big Sky teams are nothing to scoff at, which is why the conference gets the benefit of the doubt, ditto for the CAA and MVFC. In the 8 years since it's moved to 24 teams, those three conferences have had 27 of the 32 semifinalists, and Sam Houston St. made up 4 of those remaining 5.