I wasn’t aware they had turf. Thought it was still grass. That makes me feel better about the game. Was a little worried about a crappy muddy soaked field making things ugly.

In case you were wondering if it's just the FCS that makes weird ranking decisions, it's not!

Last week in the CFP rankings, Miami was 9 and Alabama was 10. BYU (6th) and Tennessee (7th) and lost so they dropped. Miami was on a bye while Alabama beat FCS Mercer 52-7. Apparently beating an FCS team is so impressive it warranted Alabama jumping Miami to 7 while Miami was 8.

Let's hope he runs with the ball away from his body again on Saturday. Just asking for the ball to be knocked out when you're that careless with it.

Projected playoff field based on projected results in the last week
https://herosports.com/fcs-football-2024-playoff-predictions-6-bzbz/



Still seems strange to have South Dakota dropping to 9 after losing to the No. 1 team but all I care about is that 4 next to UC Davis.

but to do that South Dakota State would have to underperform the expected score and/or Davis would need to score more than Massey would predict. — Riveraggie

That's potentially good for us then since Massey likes Sac and only has us winning by 6. So if we can put it on Sac, that would be a big boost to our rating.

It will be tight. I think the Stats poll would move us up to 4 but as Riveraggie posted, the committee doesn't use that anymore. In Massey we're 5 and SD is 4. That one has us closer to being the 4 than SD is to being the 3. However, Sagarin has SD in 4 but right behind Montana St. We're kind of in our own little area, far back of 4 but far ahead of 6.

But if the committee looks at who you beat, we've clearly got the better resume. We have 2 wins way better than anything SD has and our third best win (Southern Utah) is on par with their best win. Losses are fairly similar.

Might come across as a homer pick but if I was voting, I would say South Dakota has to win on Saturday to pass us. FWIW, I had Sac above us at the end of last year despite us winning H2H because I thought their resume was better, so I try not to be some blind homer.

I will say this is quite the welcome change from the past couple years. I much prefer talk of "will we get the 4 seed or the 5 seed if we beat Sac" as opposed to "are we going to even make the playoffs".

Likely nothing fishy. Lot of voters will overreact to a win or a loss regardless of how good/bad it is.

Week 8:
No. 4 South Dakota 1237 points
No. 5 UC Davis 1172 points

South Dakota loses by 3 in OT at No. 3 South Dakota State
UC Davis doesn't play

Week 9:
No. 4 UC Davis 1196 points
No. 5 South Dakota 1174 points

So that's a swing of 87 points in our direction (+24 for us, -63 for SD). This week we saw a 70 point swing in their direction after fairly similar circumstances. Beat Sac, have SD lose to NDSt and we should jump up to 4.

https://theanalyst.com/na/2024/11/stats-perform-fcs-top-25-poll-12

We're only 24 points behind SD in the poll but are 79 points ahead of UIW in 6 and 143 ahead of Idaho at 7. So win and we're 5 at the worst and being that close to SD is a good thing. We were 46 points ahead of them this week so that suggests that any loss by SD and a win by UCD should be enough to jump us to 4 in the poll.

Not much different than South Dakota losing by 3 in OT on the road to No.3 while we didn't play and we jumped South Dakota in the polls. Should sort itself out this week though, just like which team should be No. 1. As long as they keep the same logic if we beat Sac and SD loses, I'm fine with it.

Those are just last weeks rankings with the records updated.

Not to mention we're guaranteed another home game at this point so if you bring too much, you can just bring the leftovers to the next game.

We probably should. Our losses are equivalent to those of South Dakota (both lost to an FBS team and a top-3 FCS team by 3 or less, though their loss was on the road). But they haven’t beaten anyone. Best win is either a 7-2 Drake or a 5-6 North Dakota. We’ve got 2 wins much better than that and we won at Southern Utah who is 6-5.

We’ve done our job to prove we’re #4. They get their shot next week.

Man it would be really nice to get the 4 seed and get that QF game at home.

Won't be until after the selection show since we might have to win next week to secure a bye. We'll be at home but they're not going to sell tickets until they know when the game will be since if we don't get a bye, the second game (if we win the first) will be on the road. As opposed to MSU who will get a bye regardless of their result next week.

The bit I watched of the MSU coach interview, he seemed much more measured. Talked about his team not always doing what they needed to do but credited our team for taking advantage. I'd put much more stock in that than what a college student would say. In reality, it's both. They let us back in the game but we took advantage. Sure, they didn't move the ball as well on offense late to kill the game off. Okay, we had the one big play on the second 4th quarter TD drive and we recovered the onside kick (this one admittedly fluky), but we also went 9 plays 81 yards and 6 plays 51 yards for a pair of TDs. Like the coach said, they gave us the opening and we took full advantage of it.

Ok, I believe. We are good, boys. We are good.

If you had told me before the 2018 playoffs that UCD won the National Title, I would have laughed in your face and I wouldn't have believed you. Not to say that team wasn't good, but I think our peak that year was QF or maybe the SF (though I would have liked our chances hosting Maine had we pulled the EWU game out).

This year feels different. Obviously odds are we're not going to win the title or even make the title game because of how good the Dakota St's/Montana St are, but we're right there. Pulled out the Idaho game at home (backup QB I think but whatever). Demolished Poly then won at EWU (even MSU only won there by 14). Beat Montana on the road by 16 when Montana hasn't lost by 16 at home in decades outside of 2018 when we also did it. Then go toe to toe with MSU. Yes they were better but I think we showed we belonged. Would it be the craziest thing if pull the 4 seed, win the R16 game, beat South Dakota at home and we're in the semis? I don't think so. And if you're in the semis, you're right there.

Man I'm pumped. I don't want to look past this season because this is a lot of fun. But next year will be telling. If Plough can put together a playoff caliber team next year, even if it's a road game in the first round, having to replace the QB and star RB, we could have something special on our hands.

Doubt it. NDSt's only loss is by 5 on the road vs. an 8-2 Colorado team. If our game had ended 30-8, then maybe. But that's still the clear top 5. Maybe you swap 1 and 2, maybe you swap 4 and 5. SDST is locked at No. 3 for now.

We're all Bison fans this week though. If we beat Sac and NDST beats SD, I bet we jump back to 4. SD is at home so it's a bit different than when they lost to SDST by 3 on the road. Now, if we beat Sac by, say, less than 10 and SD loses a nailbiter, maybe they stay in front of us (and probably rightfully so in that case).

But this week...

No. 6 Incarnate Word beat a 6-4 team by 7 on the road. Not moving up.
No. 7 Mercer got crushed by Bama. Not moving up.
No. 8 Idaho beat 3-8 Weber by 7 at home. Not moving up.
No. 9 Villanova lost to a 5-6 Monmouth. Moving way down.
No. 10 Montana beat 2-8 Portland St by 11 at home. Moving up 1 maybe by default.

I'd say outside of winning today, the results went about as well as possible for us. Beat Sac by literally any margin and I bet we're the 5 at worst. Put it on Sac and we're probably the 4 unless South Dakota beats NDSt. Man it would be really cool to get 2 home games at a minimum (assuming we win the first one).

Re: the 2-point. It's simple math. And I honestly don't think there's a difference between losing 30-14 and 30-15. And once he passed on the 2-point to make it 30-15, you're correct that there isn't really a point in going for it to make it 30-23 vs 30-22.

Let's say for simplicity sake that we have a 50% chance of completing a 2-point and a 100% chance of making an extra point. Your scenarios where you tie the game are:

2P Make + XP Make + XP Make = 0.5 * 1.0 * 1.0 = 50% chance of tying.
2P Miss + 2P Make + 2P Make = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 12.5% chance of tying
So by going for it on the first one, you have roughly a 62.5% chance of tying the game if you manage to get 3 TDs.

XP Make + XP Make + 2P Make = 1.0 * 1.0 * 0.5 = 50% chance of tying.

Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe they go for it and miss, then miss one of the following 2 and lose anyway. But it's all about what increases your chances of winning the most.

Additionally, if we're talking about what increases the chances of winning the game, rather than just tying it, by kicking the XP and just trying for 2 at the end, if they get it, they only go to OT. If you get the 2-point to make it 30-16, get a TD + XP to make it 30-23 and get a TD to make it 30-29, Plough would have then have had the option to say hey, let's go for the win right here. And the stats will tell you (multiple NFL teams have done this and North Dakota actually just did it today) that when you're down 14 late in the 4th quarter, you actually increase your chances of winning the game if on the first TD, you go for 2 to try to make it a 6 point game. The thought being that if you get the 2-point and get another TD, you kick the XP and win the game outright. If you don't get the 2-point, you can still get the next one and go to OT.

EDIT: And to be clear, that's not an extra 12.5% chance of tying the game. That's an extra 12.5% chance of tying the game IF we score 3 TDs. So Plough not going for it on the 1st TD (to make it 30-15) didn't drop our overall chances of tying the game by 12.5%. The actual number is much lower than that since you have to account for all of the other scenarios (like only scoring 1 TD or only scoring 2 TDs).

Yep, he couldn't have hit that any better than he did.