Oddsmakers have us as 4.5 point underdogs. We’ll have to shut them down from beyond the arc again to pull off the upset.

Two lines caught my eye.

Irvine +19.5 over Fullerton (that’s a HUGE line for a league game)
UCSD +14.5 over LBSU at LB. Another huge spread especially on the road. That’s the same LBSU that just beat us at home!

I think there’s a correlation between assists and field goal percentage. When we move the ball around and get an open 3…..and miss, the lack of assist doesn’t indicate stagnant offense, just bad shooting.

There’s some kind of advanced analytics in the NBA like ‘expected assists’ that somehow assumes the shot goes in - it’s supposed to be a good metric of ball movement. I don’t think such metrics exist at our level

I don’t mean this as a insult to Sac but if the Pac12 is having to grab a FCS school to be fill out it’s football obligation, they are a bit desperate. Any FCS school.

that might be a size thing. seems like most of our opponents have length (if not height) so it can be challenging for DeBruhl or Sevilla to get off a shot near the key. Daughtery seems content to hang around the perimeter, and some of the others don't seem to confident away from the hoop.

he only shot 41.5% last year. Johnson was 44% last year. The secondary scorers like Niko, Ade, Francesco and Tamba all had very high percentages (48->57%).

Last year, Pepper .415, DeBruhl .415, Sevilla .414.

Tamba is still around 60%, but TY, Leo and Connor are all below 39%. Could be more pressure with Pepper. Could be more pressure cuz nobody respects the inside game.

he starts with the fact that UCLA already has one Bay Area rival…..somewhat ignoring that that rivalry is gone with conference breakup. Also kind of ignores Stanford as a possible rival!

Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe the tournament is an 8-team format? With this stretch of road games coming up, we might be putting ourselves on the outside of tournament eligibility unless we can right the ship soon

I only caught the last 10 minutes or so after we got home last night. I was much more impressed with Irvine than UCSD. Irvine seems more well rounded, whereas the Tritons lived (and died) by the 3.

I cant my believe Tillis is still playing for the Eaters. He’s my favorite opponent. Not exactly a chiseled physique, kind of a sleepy look. But that guy just makes plays. Irvine, as a team, doesn’t impress you with their athleticism (compared to day Long Beach) but they defend like crazy and don’t make mistakes. Having a seven foot weapon helps!!

the same UCLA that has played football on the national stage for 100 years, and whose football and basketball teams play in two of the most iconic facilities in college athletes?

If pigs can fly, there’s no reason that they couldn’t go supersonic!

Another recent MIA is Lose. 2 minutes Thursday, and one defensive possession before the half. He was an energy guy last year with an occasional electrifying dunk; very quiet this year.

Mani was dressed but he moved with zero energy during warmups.

Stood with grandkids post game to get high fives from the players. Very dejected looking group.

there was a ‘merc area’ yesterday on the court level next to the band never advertised and not very visible. I was only aware cuz my grandsons have a radar for souvenirs. No kid sizes for shorts which is disappointing.

Agree with the above mentioned upgrades, especially concessions. It would be nice to block off the open spaces upstairs (curtain, accordion wall) to make it feel more intimate. Might make it louder.

I’d also wish they could improve the car traffic in and out of the arena. That light cycles through, I believe, 5 lights (including bike crossing), so you can get stuck there for awhile trying to turn in. Leaving is similar - can’t they go to flashing lights and traffic cops for 15 minutes post game? A Pavillion specific entrance would be ideal but I can’t imagine how that could work.

I haven’t seen what other MWC arenas look like (beside SJSU which is not great), so not sure where the bar is set.

It never felt like we had more than 3 legit scoring threats on the floor at any time. Both Rocek and Tamba really look shellshocked when they get the ball inside, so defenses can extend hard up through the arc, collapse quick and either get a block or turnover.

One aspect of Askew’s game that might be overlooked was his defense. It looked like he focused on Sevilla and really shut him down.

They were feeling it from beyond the arc, nailed FT’s and made big shots when we would get to within 2 possessions. Rough day

this is a big matchup with all the road games looming.

The last Saturday BWC home matinee (albeit a little later start) was UCSB which was one of our really solid games.

I wonder if if a coincidence that this rash of BIG announcements are coming with the students on break? Seemed to be some pushback back in fall when they are taking new stadium/arena

I’m hoping we get off to a fast start tomorrow. It seems like we have several turnovers and rarely more than 2 points at the first media timeout. Let’s get out of the gate fast and don’t look back.

Shocked the world with announcement of renovations to start soon!

actually, Sevilla was 3-4 from beyond the arc in the first half, 1-5 in the second. That dagger was a long 2.

it’s just weird that those turnovers don’t seem to be resulting in easy fast break buckets! TY stripped guys 2 or 3 times last night up high and still had to contend with 1-2 defenders on the other end. Could be how opponent’s offenses stay out at the top of the arc?

I wonder if part of the second half woes are fatigue. We only played 8 last night (Lose was out there for only 2….sick?). Defenders are very physical with TY, and we tend to get some full court man pressure all night.

Both Leo and TY are really struggling from the outside. Heading into Bako, Leo was around 50% from 3; the last 3, 2-15. TY has been 1-11 in that stretch.

I was listening to Les in the post game driving home - he mentioned our lack of fast break points. Sometimes, a scorer needs an easy bucket to get things going. I can’t remember the last time TY picked off someone and got an open layup - everything seems contested for him.

Bring on the Beach. Interesting to see them since it looks like a nearly complete remake of the roster.

Feels like we should be up 30; stats back me up. Shooting better tonight. Good crowd