• Toke69
    496
    This is a hard team to figure out. Two time Big West coach of the year Eric Olen is gone but new coach Clint Allard seemed to have the team rolling as they won 10 of their first 11 games. The only loss was to a very good Nevada team in Reno and it is worth noting that UC Davis beat the Wolfpack in Reno. UCSD’s wins came over good teams such as Temple, Tulane and Bradley. Since then, oddly, they’ve gone on a one win, wone loss, one win, one loss pattern to go 4-4 with half of those in Big West play. Even more oddly, one of the victories was the only loss Hawai`i had until the Rainbows lost to UCSB and two of the losses were to 3-4 teams Cal Poly and Fullerton.

    I wondered if the inconsistency was due to injuries, but the Tritons have kept the same starting lineup all season, at least until the game against CSUN which UCSD lost. In that game Alex Chaikin replaced Aidan Burke. Chaikin scored 22 vs. CSUN then 14 against Bakersfield. Burke had been scoring 11 ppg in their early run but less than 5 ppg since then. He’s a junior guard who has been in San Diego his whole career and played in every game last season, which is probably why he initially started. It’s hard to put the blame on one player, but it looked like coach Allard had seen something and made the change. Maybe Chaikin’s team leading 42.6% from the 3 point line is a factor. In the Big West, that rate trails only Conner Sevilla and UCI’s Jurian Dixon. We’ll see who starts against the Ags on Thursday. Chaikin is a transfer from Lafayette who had a very good freshman year there. The other two guards are Tom Beattie, transfer from Hawai`i where he started last year, and Emanuel Prospere II, a graduate student transfer from Missouri- St. Louis. They score 10.9 and 8.6 ppg respectively and both average 3.4 assists per game, meaning the Tritons effectively have two point guards.

    The front court consists of leading scorer #8 Leo Beath, who is a 6’ 8” junior transfer from Florida Atlantic. He averages 15.5 ppg., good for 5th in the conference, and 4.2 rpg. The other forward is Bol Dengdit, a transfer Australia after two years at Portland. He contributes 10 points per game and over 5 rebounds with his 6’11” height, but the team leader is the 6’ 5” guard, Beattie with 5.4 rpg.

    As a team, UCSD scores 80.3 ppg while allowing 71.4. They have the best assist/turnover ratio in the league at 1.46. UC Davis is 4th at 1.23. UC Davis seems to be on a roll and we’ve won 3 of 4 at home, so there’s a good chance to be 6-3 at the end of this long home stand. Note, however, that UCSD has been a good road team, 5-2, albeit only about a third of their games have been away.
  • DrMike
    1.1k
    my very non-expert opinion is that nobody in the Big West is overly talented or deep, so style matchups can lead to these head scratching results. That and the guard-heavy, 3 point dominate offenses - an off night is a disaster because most teams don’t have any inside threats.
  • Toke69
    496
    I would have disagreed with you before this past weekend. I still think Irvine and Hawai`i are clear co-favorites, but let's see how things play out.
  • DrMike
    1.1k
    agree - but I think the winning team will have more losses than in past years. I thought, again based on limited viewing, Hawaii has the most weapons but Irvine defends better.
  • DrMike
    1.1k
    Oddsmakers have them as 2.5 point favorites. This week’s games are big. We close the season on the road and have both UCI and UCSD on the road in the second half. If we have a hope of getting into the coveted top 4 spots, two wins are needed. We faded down the stretch last year with a similar late season schedule.
  • Toke69
    496
    I see that the spread opened at 2.5 but is now 1.5. If I were a gambler, I'd have taken the Ags at 2.5. I believe the consensus was that last season the Aggies lack of depth caused them to run out of gas the latter part of the season. They lost seven in a row as if we need to be reminded.
  • Toke69
    496
    No stats available, but it's evident that neither team has found the range yet. Low scoring first half so far at 18-13 UCSD. Both Sevilla and Chapelle are scoreless for the Ags and Chaikin has not hit a 3 for the Tritons.
  • Toke69
    496
    Sevilla hurt, but the Ags are getting some shots to fall to take a 30-25 lead. Hope they can keep it going.
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.6k
    30-25 Ags at the half in a tough, blue collar, defensive battle.
  • Toke69
    496
    ESPN finally has stats up. What is striking is that San Diego has big advantage in rebounds: 33-22. Ags have a slight advantage in turnovers: 15-10. Score is tied at 45.
  • Toke69
    496
    So much for the Tahoe Blue Unis bringing good luck.
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.6k
    Our defense went missing in the second half and the Tritons hung 55 points on us after we held them to only 25 in the first half. Needless to say, Les was not happy in the brief, post-game, radio interview. He said that SD was more aggressive and played harder. He went on to say that "if this is how we are going to play then I have to start thinking about a different rotation."
  • Toke69
    496
    Yes, it was clear that the D broke down in the second half. Disappointing after that great effort against UCI. But the offense was also inconsistent, shooting only 36% and with Cooper and Sevilla, the Ags two leading scorers, combining for only 15 points.
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.6k
    From Bob Dunning's Substack column:

    Asked what he told his team afterward, Aggie head coach Jim Les said bluntly, “I told them the truth. Our defense in the second half was a joke. Right from the get-go, we were one step behind.”

    “There’s not another coach or team in this league that I have more respect for than Jim Les and UC Davis,” said Allard, a longtime assistant at UCSD who was also a four-year starter for the Tritons during his undergraduate days.

    “We knew this would be a hard game, but things opened up a bit in the second half and we got more aggressive and played well enough down the stretch to pull away.”

    https://www.thewaryone.com/p/aggies-fade-in-the-second-half-in?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed1731cd-0772-4db2-957d-0525ba4e9113_4654x3723.jpeg&open=false
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