We all know that Les puts a premium on defense first and foremost. I get it, defense travels and defense can keep you in a game when the shots aren't dropping. There will also certainly be games where players get lots of open shots and they just don't go down. However, you've got to be able to score too because you simply can't win on defense alone. I think the Aggies generally play pretty good defense and they often play great defense but they continue to struggle mightily on offense and they haven't been able to take advantage of the TO's they force on defense.

These offensive stats illustrate our offensive problems:

Average FG percentage: 40.67% which is 10th in the BW and 334th out of 355 teams in D1.
Average 3 point percentage: 31.23% which is 10th in the BW and 298th in the nation.
Assists /TO ratio: 10th in the BW and 345th in the nation.
Assists per game: 10.6 which is 9th in the BW and 342nd in the nation.

UC Davis FG percentage

24-25 - .407
23-24 - .442
22-23 - .445
21-22 - .440

The Pepper Effect?

he only shot 41.5% last year. Johnson was 44% last year. The secondary scorers like Niko, Ade, Francesco and Tamba all had very high percentages (48->57%).

Last year, Pepper .415, DeBruhl .415, Sevilla .414.

Tamba is still around 60%, but TY, Leo and Connor are all below 39%. Could be more pressure with Pepper. Could be more pressure cuz nobody respects the inside game.

We drive toward the hoop a lot - but no one seems interested in taking a mid-range jumper except TY. I'd like to see a shot chart.

that might be a size thing. seems like most of our opponents have length (if not height) so it can be challenging for DeBruhl or Sevilla to get off a shot near the key. Daughtery seems content to hang around the perimeter, and some of the others don't seem to confident away from the hoop.

It's an odd statistic that Pepper shot below the team average but that he was with the team during the three prior years when their shooting percentage was so much higher. This is especially surprising given that the guys who shot a better percentage them he did are around this year.
Could one possible answer be in the assists? Last year the three guards averaged 7.3 assists per game. This year it's 5.9.

I think there’s a correlation between assists and field goal percentage. When we move the ball around and get an open 3…..and miss, the lack of assist doesn’t indicate stagnant offense, just bad shooting.

There’s some kind of advanced analytics in the NBA like ‘expected assists’ that somehow assumes the shot goes in - it’s supposed to be a good metric of ball movement. I don’t think such metrics exist at our level

Oddsmakers have us as 4.5 point underdogs. We’ll have to shut them down from beyond the arc again to pull off the upset.

Two lines caught my eye.

Irvine +19.5 over Fullerton (that’s a HUGE line for a league game)
UCSD +14.5 over LBSU at LB. Another huge spread especially on the road. That’s the same LBSU that just beat us at home!

No one wants to be the team that Poly finally beats which breaks their eye-popping, 44 game, losing streak in the BW conference..

From the Big West Banter by Gauchodan:

The Aggies (9-8, 3-3) make the Central Coast trip this week in a horrible shooting slump. UC Davis is making just 33.5% of its shots from the field in its last 5 games vs. Division I opponents. The Aggies have made 24.8% of their 3-point shots during those same 5 matches. Overall, the Aggies are last in the conference and 21st-worst in the country in field goal percentage. A loss at home to Long Beach State puts extra pressure on the Aggies to get a road win this week.

The Mustangs (6-12, 0-6) have five losses of less than 5 points or in overtime this season after a gut-wrenching loss to UC Santa Barbara, a game they never led but tied up in the waning moments. Cal Poly has lost 8 of its last 9 games and has a 44-game Big West regular-season losing streak in progress. There was some talk last week of Grambling State having a 45-game SWAC streak about 11 years ago, but that losing skid was to all Division I opponents and was just 28 games long in the conference. D3 Caltech lost 310 straight Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference games from 1985 to 2011. My research continues.

https://bigwestbanter.substack.com/p/two-team-race-or-not?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3137908&post_id=154934402&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=31ratq&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Cooper starting in place of Rocak. Coach Les must have wanted to shake things up. Maybe get more offense into his starting lineup?

Shooting woes continue. Leo and TY have shot 2 of 13 after 15 minutes of play.

I’m unable to watch tonight but the score indicates poor shooting on both sides?

A poorly played game on both sides so far. Cal Poly has mishandled the ball several times, although some credit goes to the the Aggie defense for the 10 Mustang turnovers. Cal Poly is only in it because they are 6 of 12 from the 3 point line. UCD has done well on the offensive boards, but not that many second chance points.

Yes, Ags got lucky, Ty makes 2 3s, Cooper a flush to go up at halftime.

we went small vs poly the first time, I believe. Gave poly problems handling the ball

Yep, our poor shooting continues but Poly isn't much better either. Ags are shooting 33% and Poly 36%. Leo, TY and Daughtery are a combined 4-22.

I don’t even seen borra on the bench.

I don't know if he travels on the road games. I think DrMike said that he had a season ending injury before the season started.

he is out; he has traveled to most games.

Poly must be happy to be done with us. Our defense just shuts them down.

Take away Leo’s FGs numbers and our FG% was pretty good.

Big win

Ags win 65-54. The loss by Poly was their 45th conference loss in a row which tied an NCAA record.

I feel bad for Cal Poly because their next game against UCI means they will set a new record. On the other hand, it was good to see the Ags shooting improve in the second half and hope it bodes well for UCSB. They really held the Mustangs with their defense. I mean 20 turnovers! Koonce only got 6 points and I can't helkp but think that Coach Les must have told his guys to clamp down on him. I noticed how quick they were to switch on him and how even the guards kept him from getting good looks.

20 turnovers is 13 LESS than they had in the December game at Davis. They were so careless with the ball the first game; same thing tonight?

They loaded up with transfers this year and will lose a boatload of players. If that doesn’t lead to at least a few BWC wins, that’s another setback to their program.

At the halftime interview, the PBP man gave his Sean Hannity blathering 2 minute question. His color man also had an irritating voice.

They really held the Mustangs with their defense. I mean 20 turnovers! — Toke69

Poly was averaging 81.1 ppg so the Ags held them 27 points under their average. Les was really proud of the defense and said that it was a challenge to get getting ready for Poly because does some things that you don't see very often. TY and Les both praised the scout team in practice this week and TY said that, because of them, "we knew what Poly was going to do and we were ready for it defensively."

They were so careless with the ball the first game; same thing tonight? — DrMike

They were sloppy at times but a lot of the TO's were due to our defensive intensity. We had very active hands. TY had a critical steal when they were about to make a breakaway basket late in the 2nd half which would have got them within 6. A Poly assistant coach said the magic words to a ref and got T'ed up which resulted in Sevilla hitting both FT's and stretching the lead to 8.

It was good to see TY hit those 3s. Hope it puts him back in his groove.