MBB: Cal Poly (5-4) at UC Davis (3-4) Thursday, Dec. 5 at 6:00 pm

Toke69

Cal Poly, as you probably know, gave the Big West one of their biggest upsets of the preseason by outscoring Stanford 97-90. Guard Owen Koonce (6’5”) hit 75% of his field goal attempts en route to a 30 point night, aided by Isaac Jessup’s 21. Neither of them averaged more than 15 ppg previously and neither of them had been their leading scorer. That honor had gone to returning point guard Jared Hyder. New head coach Mike DeGeorge went 13 deep which is not unusual for him. The odd thing is that he seems to have a five guard starting lineup, at least the five who started against Stanford were all guards, 6’5” or under. They do have some height, notably in returning sophomore forward Aaron Price (6’8”) but he’s only averaging 10 mpg. And 6’9“ Paul Bizimana who plays even less. Whatever he’s doing it is working as the Mustangs are 5-4 after starting last season 4-8. Prior to their upset of the Cardinal, Cal Poly had not beaten a team with winning record, so it’s very hard to say how good they really are, but UC Davis had better be prepared for a tough opening Big West game. The game will be on ESPN+.

BlueGoldAg

Remarkable turnaround for Poly this year. They're the real deal. The Aggies have been slumping in the last couple of games. Teams have figured out that the best way to beat the Ags is play TY very physical and sag into the middle to make it very difficult for him to drive to the basket. Until we can figure out a way to get some balanced scoring help from our "bigs," we are going to struggle on offense. That makes us have to rely heavily on keeping the game within reach with our defense game in and game out.

We've seen this pattern quite often in the Les era where the team is highly dependent on guard play. Gauchodan, who closely follows and writes about Big West basketball, recently had this to say in his Substack column:

In the years since Davis won the Big West back in 2018, their biggest deficiency has been the frontcourt, wasting years of some of the best guard play the Big West has had. Last year was not much different in that the Aggies were one of the worst rebounding teams in the conference and the bulk of offensive production was from the 1-3 positions.

https://bigwestbanter.substack.com/p/big-west-countdown-5-uc-davis

abridge

Our guard play hasn't been good in the past few games. TY seems to have been reading his press clippings. It's true that he's also been heavily defended, but it's also true that he's been picked clean multiple times because he was dribbling instead of passing the ball. The Ags have moved the ball well, sometimes, but they've often missed the open shooter.

And in the forecourt, we're out gunned. We're also missing many chances in the short-mid range that simply cannot be missed if we're to be competitive.

Toke69

I agree we're usually outgunned in the front court, but that's how Coach Les seems to like it. Pablo Tamba has been provided some front court offense, averaging 12.3 ppg. I notice how Rocak will often feint a shot, but he hardly ever takes a shot from more than 5 feet from the hoop. Chappell has potential, but you can't expect a lot fro a freshman. I think a major problem is the lack of ball movement, as the Ags are averaging less than 10 assists per game.

DrMike

↪Toke69

in Les’ defense, two bigs we were counting on (Borra and Mani) are MIA. Mani was supposed to provide scoring, Francisco defense and rebounding. That hurts

agalum

I’m not so sure TY is 100%. In our last home game, he went down really hard, face down. It was clear he was in a lot of pain. He did return in the second half, but wasn’t very effective. If i hit the floor like that, I’d probably be in a wheel chair, lol.

DrMike

↪agalum

good point. It seems like what’s hampering him most is the defense’s ability to clog the lane and take away any path to the hoop. That, and the very physical defense he’s been getting away from the hoop - similar to what Pepper saw often last season, especially from deep teams that could throw more bodies at him.

BlueGoldAg

in Les’ defense, two bigs we were counting on (Borra and Mani) are MIA. Mani was supposed to provide scoring, Francisco defense and rebounding. That hurts — DrMike

That's true, Mike, I hear what you're saying. Having Mani and Borra out hurts.

Les is well known for developing guards. Bob Williams has said he feels like Les does as good a job with guards as any coach on the west coast and it seems like he builds his teams with guards along with defensive minded players first and foremost. I think if we are going to be able to compete at the top of the conference every year and grow the program, we have to have better offensive production and rebounding from the 4 and 5 positions. Otherwise, we pretty much have to have exceptional 3 point shooters to offset our lack of interior scoring and to overcome getting beat on the boards.

Irvine has built a very strong program and they generally have some very good bigs. This year they are a very balanced and disciplined team and currently ranked as the #1 mid-major. Santa Barbara often has talented size as well and Pasternack often recruits 4 star high school players and transfers from major programs. I think we have to do the same here in order to keep pace.

movielover

↪BlueGoldAg

It's tough for one big man to compete w two or three bigs. Coach Les prefers guards.

Toke69

I just noticed that the Big West has scheduled opening conference play this coming week, but does not resume until January. Does anyone know why?

Oldbanduhalum

↪Toke69

my understanding is that with byes and the number of teams in the conference and when the BW tournament has to start by, the regular season would have started the week before new years, when no students would be around. Instead, they schedule those two games before winter break so more people could attend.

Toke69

↪Oldbanduhalum

Thanks, that makes sense.

DrMike

Last year, we opened against same two teams (different order) on 12/28 and 12/30. Oddly, we drew 1700 for 12/28 vs UCSB.

Toke69

ESPN lists UC Davis as only a 1.5 point favorite over Cal Poly.

BlueGoldAg

↪Toke69

I'm not surprised. Poly has been playing very well and is coming off the upset over Stanford whereas the Ags have not been playing well lately and are coming off a blowout loss at Oregon State...two teams going in different directions at the moment. I do expect that the Ags are going to come out very hungry for this one though.

movielover

I saw Cal Poly play Cal, if I recall limited size but physical and mature.

DrMike

↪BlueGoldAg

I'm actually surprised we are favored, even by just a bit. we were something like 8 point favorites vs Norfolk and that didn't end well. Hopefully we get a decent turnout tonight.

BlueGoldAg

↪DrMike

I'm surprised that we are favored as well. Honestly, based on how these two teams have been playing for the most part this season, I think we're the underdog tonight.

abridge

Our mighty band cannot make a showing.

abridge

A couple of epic hooking fouls by Poly.

BlueGoldAg

Les shook up the starting lineup in a big way tonight. Ags have forced 12 TO’s already but can’t make a basket. We’re 2-15…!!

DrMike

Thank god for the turnovers else it would be even worse

BlueGoldAg

We forced 20 TO’s but had 11 of our own. Crazy game…

abridge

Ugly game.

agalum

Signing into this party late, but TY looks much better.

agalum

And how about Sevilla! He’s really upped his game this year.

Toke69

I tuned in an hour late but sped my way through the first half in disbelief at both the poor shooting by the Ags and the rate of turnovers by Cal Poly. It was almost a comedy through the first 14 minutes. I don't know how they did it, but they really flipped the switch especially in the second half. Sevilla is impressive.

Toke69

This kid Unuakhalu has spring! He and Rocak both get up there quickly.

agalum

Good win. Maybe not clean, but a win against a tough opponent. What was the deal between TY and a poly guy during the hand shake?

Toke69

Good to see the Ags play better defense (18 steals) and moving the ball around better on offense (18 assists) in comparison to their previous three games. Good thing to have in league play, even though it took nearly a half for them to find it.

I have tended to disagree that TY has been held down only by the tough defense they've been throwing at him. While it may have been a factor, I think it has been just as critical that he seemed to have lost some confidence after the Grand Canyon game. His performance tonight, after an egregious start suggests that he might have gotten his mojo back. It certainly helps that he had a lot more offensive support from Sevilla, Tamba, Daughtery and DeBruhl.

abridge

TY works on defense. He has an amazing sense of when the ball is vulnerable and how to exploit it. The choice by the officials to not call the little stuff came to our favor. There was a lot of hands-on defense and grabbing for the ball - which we really need to do. There are officiating teams that don't allow much of it and it hurts us.

MBB: Cal Poly (5-4) at UC Davis (3-4) Thursday, Dec. 5 at 6:00 pm

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