Drake upsets Tarleton?

I have no idea what Sagarin’s eigenvector analysis is, and he ain’t sayin, but that method comes up with SEMO favored while his regular analysis has Illinois State favored. So perhaps it will be a competitive game.
I don’t have much confidence the SEMO will win but that is entirely because I watched the first third of their last game, in which they looked horrible. They came back to make a respectable score though.

I like the match-up between NAU and ACU. Interested to see how Texas/OK talent stacks against CA/AZ talent.

Illinois State is starting to roll that run game. They have a decent offensive line and three separate, yet different weapons at RB. The running game is big in the playoffs, the winter months, if you can't consistently grind it for 4-5 yards, it's tough to control the game.

Well, to be fair, NAU does have 11 players from FL/TX/OK, as well as talent from Colorado, IL, PA, OH, a Virginian, a Nigerian and a German. They are definitely stocked with Arizona guys and California guys for the most part however.

ACU is certainly loaded with Texas talent, but they too, recruit from many different states, seeing CA, MN, LA, FL, AL, IA, OH and Germany on their roster as well.

I thought last year they brought in something like 20-25 transfer portal guys.

That's a crazy amount of new guys to corral in camp!

I'll take a stab at this week's games
Tennessee Martin @ #16 New Hampshire: UT Martin 23 - New Hampshire 17
Lehigh @ #9 Richmond: Richmond: Richmond 40 - Lehigh 20
#12 Illinois State @ SE Missouri State: Illinois State 33 - SEMO 31
Drake @ #13 Tarleton State: Tarleton State 34 - Drake 13
Northern Arizona @ #15 Abilene Christian: ACU 24 - NAU 27
Central Connecticut State @ #10 Rhode Island: CCSU 31 - URI 30
Eastern Kentucky @ #11 Villanova: EKU 17 - Nova 38
Tennessee State @ #14 Montana: TSU 10 - Griz 38

Crediting Montana’s home field with 18 points?

pretty good picks but I think Rhode Island wins.

I think URI is a little overrated, had to shake up the First Round somehow.

I looked at Tennessee State's overall results - and am making a jump prediction, that they will fold. The matchup is incredibly favorable for Montana by the way.

NAU, in fact, did not compete against ACU.

All 4 Coastal Athletic teams that got into the playoffs played today, #9 seed Richmond, their best, got beat by Lehigh, their worst, New Hampshire, got blown out at home by UT Martin, Rhode Island was played tough by CCSU and Nova held on to beat Eastern Kentucky. Not feeling the CAA right now.

If Montana doesn't win soundly tonight - you'd have to say that the mid-tier of the Big Sky doesn't look all that hot either.

NAU 29 yards rushing on 24 attempts. They looked absolutely terrible. Selection committee picked the wrong last team in it seems. Add to the fact that ACUs QB1 was out.

Who should have replaced them? Not convinced SUU was all that great.

SUU actually played Abilene Christian earlier in the year and lost 25-28

SUU came on at the end of the year and they have Lambson who seems to always deliver.

SUU would've been a mature pick by the committee. Me personally, I like it when the best players get a chance in the big dance...the Top FCS rusher is in the playoffs with a chance to redeem the loss earlier in the season. Thunderbirds played a murderous schedule, and were competitive in most every game --- that loss to Idaho State did them in.

They played 4 FCS Playoff teams --- beating EKU 42-21, losing to UC Davis, Abilene Christian and Tarleton State by a combined 7 points in 3 games... got crushed by Utah and beat UTEP. Clearly, consistency is a huge determining factor for the committee. If they beat the Bengals earlier in the year, they would've been in.