I think the only scenario where we aren’t confident about a top 4 seed is if USD beats NDSU and Montana beats MSU. That would leave NDSU, SDSU, USD, UCD, and MSU all with 1 FCS loss, mostly to each other. I’m hoping in that scenario Portland State’s whooping cough (which meant one less win for USD) makes USD the #5 seed.

I don’t love that the Big Sky’s representative on the committee (until 2028) is Sac State’s AD.

The one year we would benefit by beating Montana but the Grizz AD isn't there anymore.

So if we level slac, does Orr support us or screw us? I really don’t know anything about him.

I think the feeling is support. all the California schools get screwed by the Montana-centric BSC leadership so the thought is it will be better.

If we win and NDSU, I can’t imagine us NOT being 4. USD’s resume isn’t that good.

If Davis gets up to the 4 seed after tomorrow's matchup in Sac, the playoffs could look like this according to College Sports Journal:

Lehigh at No. 16 Villanova, winner plays No. 1 North Dakota State
Northern Arizona at No. 15 Tarleton State, winner plays No. 2 Montana State
Duquesne at No. 14 Southeast Missouri State, winner plays No. 3 South Dakota State
UT Martin at No. 13 Abilene Christian, winner plays No. 4 UC Davis
*No. 12 Illinois State at Drake, winner plays No. 5 South Dakota
Stony Brook at No. 11 Rhode Island, winner plays No. 6 Incarnate Word
Chattanooga at No. 10 Richmond, winner plays No. 7 Idaho
New Hampshire at No. 9 Montana, winner plays No. 8 Mercer

With South Dakota upsetting #1 NDSU today and the other 3 top 4 teams winning, here's how I think the final rankings will look if the Aggies beat Sac:

#1 Montana State
#2 North Dakota State
#3 South Dakota State
#4 South Dakota
#5 Aggies - if they beat Sac...

If they lose (lets hope not), Can they still get top 8?

I think so...but maybe not too since it would be a bad loss considering Sac's record...

Now we wait. That was not the statement game I expected. Let's see how the selection committee views it.

Selection show tomorrow 9:30 AM PST

Hoping for #4. I'm guessing #5.

Can't see us getting the 5 after that. The computer rankings are going to have SD above us but I think our resume is slightly better than theirs. Just glad we don't have to sweat out getting in or even getting a bye.

USD beating NDSU pretty much killed the dream for #4

It was done once USD won AND the AGs would have had to win by 3 or 4 scores at minimum.

A loss could have even had Idaho pass us (though we did win head to head). Idaho losing to #1 Oregon by 10 and beating Wyoming was big for them. Also Wyoming is tied with Boise at the half so if they manage to win, that looks good for them. Because the Ags won, they will stay ahead of Idaho though. Maybe I'll go to the Vandal game if it's not at the same time as the Ags.

Who would get the 5th seed if not us?

Incarnate Word or Mercer.

Aka the Sac Killers for UIW!

Wyoming is 2-8. Maybe this is their game to prove something like Sac

College Sports Madness has a projected bracket that has us as the #6 seed and would play the winner of the Illinois - Drake game. Here are their projected seeds:

#1 Montana State
#2 NDSU
#3 SDSU
#4 Mercer
#5 South Dakota
#6 Aggies
#7 Richmond
#8 Idaho

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

I thought Mercer was playing a game with us or Sac in the next few seasons but looking at their future schedules I must be thinking of someone else.

@DrMike said Mercer was to be the opening game next year in Mobile, AL. (“Neutral” field)

That bracket is dumb. Mercer lost to a 4-7 team by 20 points and doesn't have a single ranked win. They're 14th in Sagarin and 11th in Massey. In no universe do they deserve to be above us and South Dakota.

Mercer is trash….compared to Big Sky Teams. TBH.


Hoping NAU gets in.

We better be #5. But I'm not holding my breath.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-2024-playoff-predictions-final-bzbz

Let SUU and NAU in!

Sitting right next to Finn…..NAU in! Davis stays at #5. Mercer shouldn’t jump us. Big Sky a tougher conference.

:chin:

Here's another bracket projection that has the Ags as the #5 seed who would play the winner of the Villanova - Lehigh game:

https://theanalyst.com/2024/11/fcs-playoff-bracket-predictions-night-before-selection-sunday