I think the only scenario where we aren’t confident about a top 4 seed is if USD beats NDSU and Montana beats MSU. That would leave NDSU, SDSU, USD, UCD, and MSU all with 1 FCS loss, mostly to each other. I’m hoping in that scenario Portland State’s whooping cough (which meant one less win for USD) makes USD the #5 seed.
I don’t love that the Big Sky’s representative on the committee (until 2028) is Sac State’s AD.