NCAA: 2024 FCS playoffs automatic bid tracker and scenarios

Big Sky
The winner of the Montana State at UC Davis game in Week 12 will win the Big Sky's auto bid.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2024-11-10/2024-fcs-playoffs-automatic-bid-tracker-and-scenarios

The stakes couldn't be any higher for Davis at this point of the year.

So, Big Sky has 4 teams in the Top 11, the Missouri Valley has 3 teams in the Top 5 and 5 in the Top 16.

Herder’s bracket if we lose on Saturday.

I'd take that draw. Villanova would be a tough opponent.

Pretty much anything is better than playing prime EWU on the red field in quarters -- hosting Nova than Mercer will be tough but a much more doable path to the semis than the 2018 run

not the mention there is often an edge for the home team when the opponent is from the Eastern or Pacific Time Zone and it won't be like the Montana schools where local away fans show up. Nova has fans but nothing like those from the Sky.

Nice work! If we win would we simply trade places with MSU?

Are they projecting South Dakota to lose their last 2? Because I would think there's no way South Dakota is 9 when they're currently 5th in the rankings and if they l lose to NDST, their 3 losses would be to Wisconsin (by 14) and 2 of the top 3 FCS teams (one of which was a 3-point OT road loss).

At least flip USD and Richmond on that version of the bracket, yeah? Maybe even USD and Mercer?

Bobcat fans are going on Davis social media posts saying we are going to lose by a ton.

I REALLY hope we pull that upset off…

Those are the kinds of people who make noise at games.

Richmond definitely. 8-2 but only 1 win over a team that would be ranked (Delaware is ineligible). There are 3 other ranked teams in their conference and Richmond doesn’t play any. Loss is at home to a 5-5 Wofford. South Dakota has soft wins also but they wouldn’t have a bad loss either.

Plus just last year, Idaho and Mont St were both 8-3 and got byes so it’s not like the third loss is a disqualifier.

We all want to beat Montana St. this weekend, but if we lose, I think how we lose could be the difference between the 4 and 5 seed. If the game is close and we lose by 7, I can't see any other team taking the 4 spot. But, If we get blown out then???? Of course, if USD beats NDSU that changes the whole scenario. I can't see us losing to sac given the trajectory of both teams. 2 guaranteed home games vs. 1 is a huge difference. The only other teams that could jump us? Mercer, USD (if they lose a tight one to NDSU). I can't see Idaho, UIW or Richmond getting the 4 spot. The selection process is all about optics and we don't want to be in the wrong side of that.

The selection process is very opaque. They don’t look at polls officially although they are no doubt aware of them. They look at Massey ratings, and ESPN result and predictive metrics that aren’t published, then make subjective judgements from won loss record, strength of schedule, key injuries, head to head, common opponents etc. It makes me very uncomfortable. It is so undefined as to make it entirely plausible that we could end up 10-2 and not in the top 8. For example Idaho, we beat head to head, we would have a better record than, but they could say they were missing their QB in many games, and seed them above Davis. Loosey Goosey selection system.

Do the Ags make money on playoff games or does it go toward staffing and the NCAA?

“ Do the Ags make money on playoff games or does it go toward staffing and the NCAA?”
Good question. And to add one more, does the ncaa pay the travel expenses for playoff teams on the road?

somebody is getting paid for sure because of course season ticket holders would have repurchase their seats. And in the D2 days I believe students had to pay. As I recall, in our previous D1 home playoff game I believe a benefactor stepped up to sponsor student tickets.

SFO to Dallas Airport, $270 RT. Direct flight. Just sayin.

We have extra costs that are not paid for by the NCAA and the TV contract goes to the NCAA. The NCAA does pay for some of the travel costs for the traveling team, but even at the FCS level this will NOT cover the cost of the travel party to the game. In the past the NCAA has taken some of the gate and I am not sure what the 2024 arrangement is. At play-off games UCD students will have to pay to attend while in the regular season they have free admission.
One way UCD could make money is from local radio and TV ads, but this has NOT happened in the past. There has not been the interest in the department has not found a way to make this happen,
For our school to think about moving up a great game day experience with a sell-out will go a long way in showing support to move to the FBS level. We have a large budget and home championship games are great for the department and good for the school.

It makes me very uncomfortable. It is so undefined as to make it entirely plausible that we could end up 10-2 and not in the top 8. — Riveraggie

The uncomfortableness is totally understandable after last year.

However, I refuse to believe that a 10-2 UC Davis team doesn't get a top-8 seed. I guess maybe if we got absolutely demolished (like by 50 or something). And even then we might still get top-8. Just last year Montana State went 8-3, lost to Montana 37-7 to end the year and still got a 6 seed. Losses to teams seeded 1, 2 and 4, best (and only) ranked win was over a 7-4 Sac St. So we'd have 1 less loss, comparable losses, 1 better win (Idaho) and a second equal win (us vs Mont, Mont St vs. Sac).

Heck, our 2018 team went 9-2, best wins over FBS San Jose St (who went 1-11) and a 6-5 Montana or 6-5 Idaho State, lost to Eastern Washington 59-20 in our second to last game and still got a 6 seed.

Looking at resumes:

No. 6 Incarnate Word will likely be 10-2 with a loss to South Dakota St and by 7 at a 3-7 Southern Illinois. Best win by 24 over No. 25 Northern Arizona.
No. 7 Mercer will end up at 10-2 with a loss to Alabama and a currently 3-6 Samford by 20. Best win over No. 19 Chattanooga.
No. 8 Idaho, best win over No. 14 Abilene Christian and FBS Wyoming. Losses to Oregon, us, Montana St. You could make an argument they could jump us but we'd probably have to get pounded by Mont St since Idaho lost to them by 31.
No. 9 Villanova could end up at 10-2 (though maybe 9-3). Best wins at 10-2 would be over No. 16 Stony Brook and what would be a 9-2 Delaware. Lost to Maryland and by 28 to a 5-5 Maine.
No. 10 Montana would stay behind us unless they beat Montana St.
No. 11 Richmond would be 10-2. Losses to Virginia and 5-5 Wofford. Beat Delaware but avoided the other three ranked teams in the conference.
No. 12 SE Missouri St would be 10-2, losses to New Mexico St and 5-6 Lindenwood. Only ranked win is over No. 18 UT Martin.

A 10-2 UC Davis has a better resume than every single one of those teams except maybe Idaho. Put NDST, SDST, SD, and MSU in front of us and throw Idaho in there too. That means three of those teams listed above would have to be picked before us for us to be 9th.

Like you said, we've been burned by the committee in the past but our resume is also better this year. We played the other 3 top teams in the conference, winning two of them. No bad losses (like last year losing to EWU and NAU). If we beat Sac (not a sure thing of course!), I'd be shocked if we aren't in the top-8.

At play-off games UCD students will have to pay to attend while in the regular season they have free admission. — Jackbacker2

12/1/18 First D1 playoff game (vs. Northern Iowa).... 8,306 in attendance. Our students aren't going to pay to see a football game, we can barely get them to show up for free.

Didn't Hawkins pull some strings to make that game free for students (or am I misremembering?)

I remember we had a festive and fun tailgate! UNI played us hard

“ Didn't Hawkins pull some strings to make that game free for students (or am I misremembering?)”
I think you’re correct. I have the same recollection.

I think ASUCD or some other institutional sponsor bought some amount of student tickets, I found a press release saying students were able to manually pick up tickets with their IDs.

I would hope a deal is being worked on with ASUCD, UC Davis Health, or like UCU/Pepsi/WestVillage to subsidize again (and hopefully digital tickets).

There's no way we are not a top 8 seed at 10-2.
I think the 4 seed is a real possibility even if we lose to Montana State. As CMT outlined, our 10-2 record should still be better than everyone else's record that is currently ranked below us (if it's a close, competitive game). If we get boat raced by Montana State the committee might see things differently and give us the 5 or 6 seed.
The difference between the 4 and 5 seed is huge. With the 4 seed we are guaranteed to be at home in the quarter finals vs. flying across the country or playing a snow game in the Midwest. That was my point. The wildcard is the South Dakota/NDSU game.

Idaho lost by ten to the FBS #1(!!!!!) team. That says a lot.

Hypothetically if we’re able to pull off the MSU upset and the Causeway classic, would we secure a top 2 seed and guarantee home field advantage throughout playoffs? Or would we land behind the Dakotas

In that first play-off game at Aggie stadium, I believe that the UCD athletic department purchased 2,500 or so student tickets to pass on to the students. The tickets were first come, first served and given out to current UCD students with a valid student ID. The thoughts being that a full stadium helped the team and the students do support athletics through collected fees.

I do hope that the department does this for any and all home games this year. A rocking student section is good for all!

one of our donors bought the student tickets. NCAA prohibits free student tickets for playoffs. Not sure when Thanksgiving was that year, but that’s why a bye is critical; else, we’d play the holiday weekend

If we're a top 4 seed, is it possible we get a bye and two home games?

So we could have a bye and 4 playoff games.