With the nail biter against the Vikings in the books, it's time to get ready for Homecoming and the Battle for the Golden Horseshoe as Cal Poly comes to town. It's no secret that the Mustangs have been... struggling... as they haven't had a winning season since 2016 and are a collective 18-56 to date since that season. Their season so far has been as following:

@ San Diego - L 21-27
@ Stanford - L 7-41
vs Western Oregon - W 31-14
@ Northern Colorado - W 28-7
vs Idaho State - L 38-41

The loss against San Diego stands out, but it appears that the Mustangs have found at least a little bit of identity in the last couple of games against Northern Colorado and Idaho State. I mean, Northern Colorado is REALLY bad, but you take wins when you can get them and maybe it was the spark they needed to get the ball rolling a little bit.

The Mustangs have not had consistency at QB playing time this season as they have failed to truly pick a guy in the fallout of Huard transferring out of the program. Bo Kelly has had the most passing snaps so far this season completing 65/103 (63.11%) for 712 yards with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. That being said, in the last 2 games Jaden Jones has been thrown into the mix completing 13/23 passing attempts (56.52%) for 237 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Jones has been able to add a different dimension to their offense with his legs as he's had 132 yards rushing on 8 attempts with a rushing TD. Richie Watts (transfer from Buffalo) has also gotten snaps, but has primarily been used to run the ball with 22 caries for 124 yards and 3 TDs.

Cal Poly's lead RB has been Aiden Ramos who has collected 245 yards and a TD on 64 attempts (3.7 avg), but have also gotten contributions from Zion Hall with 23 carries for 122 yards (5.3 avg). In terms of receiving, the Mustangs have been targeting 2 main WRs. Giancarlo Woods has 19 receptions for 259 yards and TD while Michael Briscoe has 11 receptions for 256 yards and 3 TDs. TE Jake Woods has also added 2 TDs on 9 receptions.

Defensively, the most dangerous guy on the field for the Mustangs is DL Elijah Ponder. He had double digit sacks last season and has been off to a good start this season with 4. If our offensive line does not key in on him, he is going to make things very difficult for Miles. They only have forced 2 interceptions on the season, but have notably forced 6 fumbles (recovered 4). In 2023, they were giving up over 400 yards per game, but so far this season have seen mild improvement giving up 380 per game.

All-in-all, I think this should be a game that the Aggies win, but we've been far from consistent despite our record and they seem to have found their offensive footing in the last couple of games. I mean, we've really played down to teams that we probably should have beaten by larger margins. Take into consideration that a lot of this goes out the window in a rivalry game and it could be the makings of a good game. If there's one game this season Cal Poly would love to win, it's this one. As I mentioned in the Big Sky thread, Cal Poly has a brutal remaining schedule with games against UC Davis, Idaho, Montana, Northern Arizona, Sac State, and Weber State. It is possible that they finish the season with 2 wins, but you never know what's going to happen in the Big Sky... including against us! Here's hoping for a HUGE crowd.

Updated Massey numbers give the Aggies a 92% chance of winning; Davis dropped 1 spot in their power rankings for a close win over PSU, while CP dropped 6 spots for their close loss to ISU. I'm kind of surprised to see them drop for that game. I don't think there is any way for an algorithm to take into consideration that it's a rivalry game.

GO AGS! BEAT THE MUSTANGS!