ESPN gives UC Davis only a 16% chance of winning. At the same time, it gives the Beach a 71% of beating UCSB. If I remember my probability calculation correctly, this means the odds of the Ags securing the second seed tonight are 4.6% (assuming ESPN's analytics are also correct).

I guess I would have calculated 30%. We don’t clinch only if we lose and Beach win which is 59.6%. Correct?

You're right. Nothing wrong with my math, just my logic. Only one event has to happen, so it's either we win or the Beach loses then we clinch, which makes it a 59.6% chance of our not clinching, so a 40% of clinching.

I think the 4.6% is for both events to occur- we win and beach beats ucsb. But you guys are younger than me, lol. I took stats in 1977 i think. 50% chance it was 1978.

my logic was right; my subtraction was wrong! 40% it is

Good start! Aggie's D is really tough.

43-33 Ags at the half. Tritons were making a run at the end. Ags looking good, but watch out in the second. They took over in the second half last time at our house.

We'll need to weather the storm that SD will bring in the second half. A 10 point lead against a team as good as the Tritons can evaporate in just a few minutes. We need to do a better job of stopping their dribble penetration before they get to the basket. They don't miss very often within within 6 feet of the basket.

Down by 15, the Tritons started getting into the paint, but they didn't close the gap by much. I look for them to do more of that and to get Bryce Pope more shots. He was only 3 of 6 for the fist half and leads UCSD with 9 points, but we know all know how prolific he can be. I liked the way the Ags matchup zone confused San Diego, so I hope we see that more often or, if Pope starts to go off a box and one.

They didn’t double Pepper. What will they do in the second?

Santa Barbara is leading Long Beach 52-41 with 12:26 to go.

The fouls are piling up on the Aggies: Johnson with 4 and Milling with 3.

Does anyone else find the commentators as annoying as I do? They are showing more bias than most and the play by play guy really likes to milk the drama.

I thought these announcers were ok in the first half. They’re pissing me off in the second.

Toke, i think we had the same thought at the same time.

What a shot by DeBruhl!

Great win!!!

70-63 Ags, final!

Ags clinch the #2 seed! Great TEAM win!

Really good defense all night long. Coach has to be happy with the effort

That DeBruhl miracle shot was the key. It was slipping away and that gave us some life, and caused a bit of desperation with them.

Les coached his ass off to get us to the finish line with all the fouls. Starting and playing Tamba over Niko seemed to pay dividends. They pounded it inside, shooting way fewer 3’s than at Davis.

A gritty stand by the Ags after coming out for the second half making only one shot until Ade scored with 12:07 left. Pepper was clutch from the foul line. I think the shot by DeBruhl was huge, not only for the points but for the momentum. It took the air out of the Tritons sails and gave the Ags a lift. UCSD never got closer than 4 after that.

I loved how DeBruhl, Losé and Tamba contributed tonight especially after Johnson and Milling picked up their 4th fouls. Tamba had 9 boards and DeBruhl had 5.

Milling was on fire in the first half. His 3 ball is has NBA form. It would be great to him keep rolling right into the tournament.

Les stayed with a small lineup for nearly the entire game. I'm wondering if Rocak was not 100%?

Rocek looked fine when he was in. He and Borra totaled less than 10 minutes. I think it was a strategy to combat their 3 shooting.

This was especially sweet to me cuz I thought the Tritons had WAY too much fun at our expense at Davis. Pope played 35 minutes in a 33 point win, and had at least 15 points well after we gave up the ghost. 3 starters with 33 plus minutes, and firing 3’s just about every time down the court early in the shot clock. Nice payback win.

That was only their second home loss; other was a 2 pointer to SDSU.

I agree, it was a very satisfying win for us after their coach really did allow his starters to play late into the game and run up the margin of victory over us in the first game. He's done a great job building a formidable team quickly at UCSD but I lost some respect for him when he ran up the score on us. It wasn't necessary at all.