Athlon Sports has released their 2023 FCS Preseason Football Poll and they have the Aggies at #14.
1. South Dakota State
2. North Dakota State 3. Montana State
4. William & Mary
5. Holy Cross
6. Furman 7. Idaho
8. New Hampshire
9. Southeast Missouri State 10. Montana
11. Southeastern Louisiana
12. Incarnate Word
13. Samford 14. UC Davis 15. Sacramento State
16. North Dakota
17. Mercer
18. Rhode Island 19. Weber State
20. Southern Illinois
21. Richmond
22. Central Arkansas
23. Tennessee Martin
24. North Carolina Central
25. Delaware
25. Rhode Island
T23. Youngstown State
T23. Richmond
22. Gardner-Webb
21. Eastern Kentucky
20. Jackson State
19. Mercer 18. UC Davis
17. North Dakota
16. Montana
15. Southeastern Louisiana University
14. New Hampshire
13. North Carolina Central
T11. Weber State
T11. SEMO
10. Sacramento State
9. Incarnate Word
8. Samford
7. William & Mary
T5. Idaho
T5. Furman
4. Holy Cross
3. Montana State
2. North Dakota State
1. South Dakota State
I think they got them all wrong. They also give no mention of why UCD is ahead of Mercer that I see. Perhaps the Bears have s secret weapon we don't know about, seeing as how it is secret.
Idaho had a good season under a new head coach, made the playoffs, and have a young QB that was clearly a standout this last season but I'm with you in that I'm not sure they are top 5... yet.
The point I was attempting there (no football pun intended) was how arbitrary it all is. When you get past the top 10 in any ranking of teams you're pretty deep into participation trophy land. High schools typically rank students in graduating classes-what title does the 11th best GPA kid get-the irreleventorian ? Top 25 is irrelevant. UCD baseball beat a team in the top 25 this year and proceeded to lose their last 11 games-all against unranked teams not going to the playoffs. So what makes a team 18th as opposed to 19th ? UCD lost 1 fewer game than it won in football-why is it ranked at all ? Close losses to top teams are still losses. It's arbitrary.
Davis dominated Idaho and were one win away from the playoffs, QB returns. That's why they're in the top-20. As far as rankings go, top-25 isn't irrelevant because wins against other such teams matter. What's the difference between a top 18 and top 19 team? Points in the poll. We're not going back to just a top-10 ranking.
1. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
2. NORTH DAKOTA STATE 3. MONTANA STATE
4. WILLIAM & MARY
5. INCARNATE WORD 6. SACRAMENTO STATE 7. WEBER STATE
8. HOLY CROSS
9. SE MISSOURI 10. MONTANA
11. SAMFORD 12. IDAHO
13. FURMAN
14. NEW HAMPSHIRE
15. SE LOUISIANA
16. RICHMOND
17. CENTRAL ARKANSAS 18. UC DAVIS
19. N. CAROLINA CENTRAL
20. DELAWARE
21. EASTERN KENTUCKY
22. GARDNER-WEBB
23. MERCER
24. CHATTANOOGA
25. JACKSON STATE
Looking at some of these teams web sites and press about their spring sessions highlights again that Davis sports information is really deficient.
Davis still doesn’t have the 2022 season in the player profiles.
They don't have the players class listed on the basis of eligibility. They list all of last years freshmen as sophomores for example. Few of those guys played more than 4 games.
I think Davis is a better team than New Hampshire for example, but given that there is no press coverage, no spring media coverage, and a poorly updated web site, I'm not surprised people have forgotten that Davis was the sixth highest rated team in FCS using Sagarin’s methodology. ( I’m not saying Davis was the 6th best team but it’s a good guide to what a betting line would be) New Hampshire by contrast wasn't top 25, and if we had a game with them at end of last season we would have been favored by two touchdowns.
Why 25? My theory for the FBS polls is that it limited the number of teams that the national media needed to focus their coverage on. Hard to cover over a hundred teams. At the FCA level, it makes a bit more sense considering that the playoffs involve 24 teams, no?
They lost to Washington State by 7.
Its easy to look at a team Davis has defeated four in a row and not think they’re any good. But there they are ranked in all these polls.
What I meant was that in comparison to the reason for a top 25 in the FBS, the FCS poll covers the top 25 teams which is just one more than the total qualifying for the playoffs. I would be surprised to see many of the top 25 in the polls not make the playoffs.
Massey 2023 Pre-Season Projections for the FCS Playoffs with Season Win/Loss Predictions
I found this over on the AGS Forum and took a screen shot of his top 8 teams. You can see his rankings for every FCS team on that thread. I can't seem to find the original Massey link. Here's the link from the AGS Forum:
No way this predicts seeds. It may try to predict the eight best teams, but the seedings are still influenced by a great record. Example, Delaware is ranked #20, with a 10-1 record and the only loss to an FBS team. 10-1 Delaware would be seeded above a 7-4 UC Davis that was fifth in the Big Sky.
You're right about that. I saw that someone on the AGS Forum had posted a bracket based on the Massey rankings so I thought Massey was also projecting seeds. I edited my original post regarding that.
They've been bringing in some massive talent the last two or three seasons, last December, however, UIW had to announce a new Head Coach as highly successful HC and offensive guru G.J. Kinne took the HC job with relatively new BCS members, the Texas State Bobcats of the Sun Belt Conference.
I looked at this poll also and I think it is outdated even though it says it has been updated. I think this poll is for last season. I don't think the Coaches Poll has come out yet for the new season.
That's messed up. What is accurate is the opening dates and opponents for the ranked schools, but you're right. What they have posted is the final poll for last season. Here is the Athlon poll that is for 2023: https://athlonsports.com/college-football/athlon-sports-preseason-fcs-top-25-2023
Ags ranked #14, just ahead of Sac State.