Back to 6 at-large bids. MEAC is out

So you're telling me there's a chance. :)

I'm not sure we would accept a bid if we got one. It seems that we're done until the fall.

So you're telling me there's not a chance.

It ain't over, ask Bluto.

https://youtu.be/tG25f13s2JA

So you're telling me there's a chance.

no chance; we shuttered operations after EWU.

I actually think this is a good decision. Playing this spring served it's purpose for us in that the coaching staff got to see a lot of players in action and they got to see what our strengths and weaknesses are currently. It also gave the the coaching staff an opportunity to work together in real game situations and iron out the wrinkles in game time communication. All of these things will pay big dividends for the fall season.

We seemed to have gotten through the spring without a lot of major injuries and stopping now gives the players a chance to heal up before traveling to Tulsa in August. Participating in the playoffs would probably result in some injuries, some of which, could be serious. We'll be healthier this fall by not playing in the playoffs this spring.

all good points plus the fact that there would have been a two week layoff HAD we have been a playoff team. I frankly think the playoffs are a bad idea. Play into May and back in camp first of August?

Liking what you got is a key to happiness.

On the other hand, if, perchance, we had qualified, isn’t winning a championship a goal? We have no guarantee of making the playoffs in the fall; indeed the odds are against it. If we had made the playoffs it would have been a net positive.

I believe we're still rebuilding from Maier & Doss.

Rebuilding from Maier definitely, But not from Doss. How many years do we want to be missing a wide receiver who was a undrafted free agent. Every team we play losses players of that caliber frequently, it’s not something to dwell on two years later.

Sure, winning a championship is the goal and, the publicity we would get would be very positive although I think it would be a championship with an asterisk beside it noting that it was a "modified championship." Not worth the risk and the bounce the program might get IMO.

The Big Sky is certainly one of the toughest, if not THE toughest football conference and I think Hawk is building a legitimate, annual contender for the crown. We've shown we're competitive with everyone. Now we need to build up to being a consistent top dog and, eventually, win the FCS Championship.

if we were competitive with everyone we would have beat some of them when the playoffs were on the line. We’re 0-8 against Eastern and what is it, maybe losing the last five to Weber? Weber’s coach says their freshmen class this year is the best they’ve ever had. We will have a struggle to make the playoffs this fall.

Well the Aggies looked strong on the road in Moscow, like rock steady solid when it mattered, managed a comeback against a talented Idaho State team, and whooped the holy hell out of Poly, went toe-to-toe with Weber and the Eagles obviously have the best player in the Big Sky at QB...have to figure out a way to win against the physicality in Ogden, and the playmakers of EWU.

That’s not a movie about a guy saying we're happy to miss the medal round.

I think it's a good point that we *shouldn't* be rebuilding from losing Doss by now, but honestly to my untrained eye we still are trying to find a way without the Maier->Doss connection.

Those two seemed exceptionally suited to hide the recurring weaknesses of this team: Predictable runs on first and second down that got nowhere? Doesn't matter, easy 9-yarder to Doss for 1st down anyway. Defense figures out exactly where the ball is going? No problem, Keelan makes the catch in triple coverage. Bad clock management? Less of an issue when the team can score in 40 seconds on 4 plays. Stupid penalty makes it first and 20? At least one of the next few plays is a completed pass to #3 to get half or more of that back.

2019 was an opportunity for basically the entire offense minus Doss (and TT) to demonstrate that it could execute the same system without him, and I'd call the result inconsistent at best. 2021 had some more new faces in the mix but pretty much exactly the same inconsistency, except defense and special teams made up for some of it IMO.

We had severe depth issues during 2019 at running back and wide receiver. Remember Niko Harris having to play running back and then he got injured? We lost Kraft and Crawford to season ending injuries by mid season.
On the other side of the ball we had a freshman all American become academically ineligible, lost most the veteran linebackers to graduation or injury, and filled in with JC transfers. Lots of reasons besides losing Doss for 2019’s falloff.

Astute points. I watched most of the games this year, though not every play. The fly sweep seemed to work, and we had some dynamite additions in Hutton, Larison, TT & Castles. On the defensive side, Buchanan & Maae.

Rodriguez & TT are very mobile, and we seemed to throw ocassionally 10 yards deeper than Maier routes. But not deep strikes, and few trick plays beyond Wildcat. Run production way up, passing game 20-30% off. Clock mgmt issues, didn't see the uptempo pace that shocked the Spartans. We haven't learned how to win big games. Unsure why Eaton less of a factor. 5 picks, 8 fumbles.

Maybe we attack the Big Sky w 2-3 QBs. Getting Erron Duncan and Josiah Suani back would be huge.

passing game was actually more efficient this year (more yards per pass)

Good point. I'm referring to passing yards per game, off 26% or 38% (withdraw SLO blowout #s). No Montanas next fall, but still a tough league.

All excellent points. It does seem like we cleaned up some of the "dumb" 5-yd penalties (off sides, false start, delay) from last year, but still got nailed with 15 yarders when it really counted. Third down conversion and red zone/score ratio not great, fourth down conversion downright bad. Serious question, do we have a team statistician giving input on critical play calls? This is a thing in the NFL and seems like a very Davis thing to do to go enlist a math nerd.

OK this will fix it: “Golden Grasshopper on 4: No, check that:” Golden Butterfly on me” then: hand off to UG right up the middle. We will go with our strengths this fall. We have many. UG the best!

Serious question, do we have a team statistician giving input on critical play calls? This is a thing in the NFL and seems like a very Davis thing to do to go enlist a math nerd.

This is a really good question. I remember under Sochor the data was looked at which influenced play calling in real time. I’ve never heard anything about that analysis since. It might still be happening, but i personally haven't heard about it.

I believe that’s the job of the Quality Control coaches. They do much of the game plan prep for coordinators and do self-scouting of our game film.

So are they providing in game probabilities, such as with a given score do we kick a field goal or go for 2?

I think the type of stats you’re looking for are taken from the set of all college teams, and as such would be unlikely to apply to one team. Whether to kick an extra point would depend on a lot of variables specific to the two teams. How the average teams do in that situation would be of little relevance. Those generic stats would be productive reading for future decisions but using them for game time decisions would be giving them more weight than they deserve.

I hear ya. But I know that at least Sochor used those type of metrics. Maybe it’s old school.

It depends what the stats are. If they are like Eastern Washington gives up 4 yards on average run plays on third down and less than 3. Maybe that’s useful. but if so the coach has probably sensed that from watching film.

It might be a coach-by-coach basis how seriously they take aggregate stats; I remember a broadcaster saying that the Army coach has/had a glorified spreadsheet that determined what to do and when in terms of going for it, punting, etc. Then again, Army is built to perform exactly the same vs every team, unlike most squads.