Bale will be long and athletic and they will probably want to get up and down the floor whenever they get a chance. The Ags need to control the pace a play solid D.

https://theathletic.com/college-basketball/boxscore/?id=36355

Bakersfield often had the Aggies' number in Division II. That was the one team UCD just couldn't beat when I was a student. I remember one game where the Aggies built a big lead, and it slipped away. Came down to the last play with the Aggies needing a 3 to tie. Brandon Laird's last second shot was blocked

Interesting to see that graphic changing. 61% / 39% right now.

Interesting that it changes with time. I guess it would though since it is primarily for people who do sports betting.

ESPN gives the Aggies only a 27.2% chance of winning. Does anyone know how they figure these odds? My guess (and it is a pure guess) is that they run computers simulations of the games, maybe thousands?

I suspect it's a model based on their Basketball Power Index, which has Bake considerably above the Aggies. Per ESPN (emphasis mine):

"The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections"

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/bpi

Bakersfield are 3 1/2 point favorites which is what I would have expected. We’ll need to shoot well and stay out of foul trouble. That’s been an issue of late

Coaches often say that defense is the key to winning come tournament time and Les builds his teams around defense first. We're not that big inside and that makes it tough for us to defend athletic bigs in the paint and rebound well. Anigwe, Koehler and Adebayo have been getting into foul trouble quickly in recent games. It's a dilemma for the Ags...

Kinda think that fouls will play a major factor on both sides. We need to keep our bigs out of trouble and we really need to get to the foul line as much as possible. Getting in the bonus early would certainly help us out

First impression of Bake...very tough defensively...nothing is going to come easy for the Ags today...

Smothering defense by Bake is causing a bunch of TO's by the Ags...

Ags come back after being down 21-11 to take a 32-29 lead into the half.

Great second half of the 1st half. Ags up by 32-29.

Good to see the guys keep their composure after making all those turnovers and getting down by 10. They really stepped up on both defense and handling the ball. Also it's worth noting that both teams have the same number of rebounds at the half and both shooting over 50% from the field. Aggies can win this thing.

The Runners physicality had the Ags off balance in the first 10 minutes of the game but then we settled down, turned up the defensive intensity and roared back. As usual, defense will probably be the key factor in having a chance to win this game.

Rebounds stat is surprising. Bake is so physical and athletic.

It's good to see BJ Shaw back in action for the Aggies too.

Shaw will make some awful pass, followed by a nice steal and an offensive rebound. He'll really contribute once he gets a little more experience.

Wish Ba was healthy.

I think both teams will settle down in the second half. 3-point shooting might make the difference: whichever team gets hot to win.

Bake is so long and quick in their perimeter defense that open 3's will be hard to come by. We seem to be having success driving and dishing but I'm sure Bake will adjust some at the half.

I don't know if it's a coincidence, but the Ags went on a 28-8 run after the Bake backboard dunk.

Blue collar basketball and the refs are letting them play...

So much for settling down...

Excellent Aggie defense...got to keep it up...

Adebayo really playing good defense

What an ending.

Wow!!!!!

Manjon ~~~~

He’s pretty good, isn’t he?