The various picks basically comes down to the weight you put on blowouts. EWU certainly has games with large point differentials. The computer ranking systems like Sagarin rank them higher than UCD because they’re based on pure points. The systems that factor in wins like the commitee’s limit impact after 21 point differential and also factor in wins with a bonus for an FBS win and hence favor us. Human appraisals are influence by similar considerations, just more arbitrarily applied.

Another preview and prediction: Ags 31 EWU 24

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20181107120414203482004&ref=rec&tm=&src=FCS

Yup, agree. Was
Surprised that a national writer chose that angle around the UCD schedule when they have a top 5 FCS resume to date (eye test, stats, Massey, sagarin all back this up) and you could put a lot of holes in the EWU resume, which was ignored for the narrative.

Anyway I’ve gone too long about this - can anyone see I miss the write ups/analysis? Haha.

(Home w my sick 3 year old today so too much time on my hands)

Sad for your boy, but glad to have your opinions

Love your commentary!

http://aaronmangels.com/mangelscfb/team.php?UC_Davis

MangelsCFP has the Ags with an 11-point win in Cheney and 36-point blowout against J Street Tech.

How will the cold weather affect the game? Will the cold make throwing and catching the ball more difficult? Is a cold football hard as a rock and therefore more difficult to hang onto?

I'm in Spokane right now, and it's currently snowing. Game time is mostly sunny though with temperatures around 38F. I hate cold weather.

My view from Spokane

wow, snow was not in the forecast. Ive been checking it daily. Glad i packed a variety of warm coats.

I hope th Ags have the right shoes for slushy Turf

Wheels up!

From Twitter:

Well if it snows, their DBs will have a difficult time sticking with our receivers.

Here are the odds for clinching clear first in the Big Sky after tomorrow's games using Massey's game odds:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/games

Odds of UC Davis winning: 42%
Odds of Weber State losing: 10%

Odds of clinching clear first: .42 * .10 = 4.2% or about 1 in 24 chance

I love it. Once the Ags win it becomes conditional probability and the odds go up to .10

LETS GO AGGIES!

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/nov/09/showdown-in-cheney-fifth-ranked-eastern-washington/

The following may be part of their game plan:

“(UC Davis) has a pretty physical secondary,” Grady said. “They’re athletic, they have guys that can move and cover, but they’re definitely beatable. I’m hoping we take more shots over the top with (Barriere’s) arm, and they have a couple guys who are susceptible to getting beat over the top.”

So who was watching College Gameday at 7am sharp? Ags-Eagles made the show. IT’S DIVISION ONE FOOTBALL! IT’S THE BIG SKY!

https://bigskyconf.com/news/2014/11/14/FB_1114145749.aspx

2014 -TIE-BREAKER
When two or more Conference members are tied in the final Conference standings, the tie shall be broken for purposes of determining the NCAA FCS automatic bid only, and shall be determined on the following basis:
1. Head-to-head Competition
2.Record against common CONFERENCE opponents in descending order
3. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents
4. Sagarin Rating
5. Coin Flip

I don't know if newer tiebreaker rules exist.

It looks like if we lose the game today, we're not likely to get the auto bid. If we win today, then we'll likely win the auto bid. I guess that seems obvious, but it's good to see the rules behind it.

The Sagarin Rating as the fourth tiebreaker is a surprise to me.

how did we make the broadcast?

Good morning from Spokane. 27 degrees, overcast, visibility < 0.1 miles.. Everyone is talking about this game, from the rental car agent to the checker at the store. Had a nice visit last night with some of the players parents. Go Ags!

Pretty big game today. The Aggies are Coming!

Cannot. Wait. Go Ags!

Let's Goooooooooo! Woo

Caught some interviews on the local news channels last night with eagles players. They are a cocky bunch. The coach seems very complimentary of the Aggies.

I like it, they aren't scared and we got the goods to take this thing just the same. Gotta bring it to the Fire Turf hard, laser focused!

My fourth trip to see the Aggies in Cheney and the first time I'm making the trip with real hope. Looking forward to a great game. I'm also optimistic that we'll get some sunshine.