I will try to condense a lot of previous posts to summarize the prospects of the 2017 Aggie baseball team. It's really not possible at this time to forecast a win-loss record since the schedule information isn't completely available. Last year I predicted they would win 18 games with Zach Stone and Spencer Henderson in the rotation, and they won 17 without both of them for the majority of the season. So, in a way, they over-achieved.

This year's team should show a lot of improvement. Whether or not they'll post a winning record has yet to be seen, but an 8-10 game improvement seems very possible at least. One benefit of the utter calamity that was the 2016 season was that the injuries (Stone, Razo, Henderson, Anderson, Cardinalli, and Thomas were the major ones) forced them to evaluate a lot of players who likely would've been Maytag repairmen otherwise. Now they at least should have a better idea of players' strengths and weaknesses whereas last season was more like 3 1/2 months of auditions.

They can't help but have a better rotation. Having Stone and Razo (sounds like Stone was starting again in the fall as he has done every year, and I saw Razo start) definitely strengthens the weekend rotation. Garcia made the most out of his opportunity to start in 2016. He pitched better than his record would indicate. He had 2-3 starts where wins were stolen from him (Hawaii anyone ?) by shoddy fielding and bullpen work. So far the only weekend series where they need 4 starters is the Oregon trip. Mullins may well be the weekday starter. He appeared in relief during the fall ball game I saw, but he definitely seemed to take a big step forward as a starter the second half of the season. This seems to be his job to lose unless one of the younger pitchers with starting backgrounds (Hannah, Brown) steps up.

The bullpen is a bit of a concern. They added needed depth with junior college pitchers like Barraza and Loar, but there isn't a clear closer in the group. Failure to close things out resulted in a sweep at ASU. Unfortunately UCD oftens employs the HS strategy with the rotation and bullpen. You put your best pitchers in the rotation, and the closer is either the best pitcher not to make the rotation or a position player who pitches on the side. The latter hasn't really been employed by UCD since 1998 (Curtis Fields), but the former was employed to some degree last year (Garcia). I know Peters had a great summer season as a closer, but I'm a bit wary of him reprising that role in 2017. He really should be pitching as a starter or long relief. Often it's a redshirt freshman who claims this role, but the redshirt freshmen from 2016 are gone, with the exception of Razo.

Choosing the right catcher is extremely important to the pitching staff's success. Denholm wasn't a full-time catcher in HS, and it showed in his defense. The team desperately needs him to step up his defense, since his offense will likely keep him in the lineup. Diaz was billed as a great defensive catcher, but I didn't see much improvement over Denholm in games. The team really needs to have someone other than Diaz claim this job for continuity's sake because he's a senior. They don't want to make a bunch of progress with the pitching staff and then have to start all over again with a new starting catcher in 2018. Roberts must still be dealing with injuries. Ontiveros may be the best defensively of the bunch, but he's in the same boat as Diaz. Also he doesn't make enought contact at the plate to unseat Denholm. Best case scenario he could be the main back-up catcher.

The infield at the very least has a lot of capable options. How they fit together in one lineup I have no idea. I'm not sure that they're even looking at Anderson at third base any longer. Pluschkell is very capable defensively wherever he winds up. Briggs and Van Blake both showed they can hit at this level, but likely only one of them winds up starting (To be fair, Van Blake's average was pretty pedestrian, but keep in mind he had a HORRENDOUS first 20 or so at bats). Langer and Allen can both field at third base. Allen put together a nice little hitting display when he was given a chance late in the season, but that was mostly when the team was also playing well during that 5 game stretch. I don't know that either would provide the power you want from that position, but you learn to improvise in college baseball, especially at UCD. Olson should be mainly at DH, but he'll play some first base too.

There are plenty of options for the corner outfield positions. Somehow you need to find a spot for the team's top hitter for average last year-Cardinalli. Trouble is he's not a center fielder, and the corner outfield competition is pretty fierce. You also have Alex Aguiar, who eventually turned into a decent left fielder and played some right. He has speed, something that is kind of scarce in 2017. It wasn't that great in 2016 and got worse with Bily's graduation. There's Ryan Hooper, who has some real power and can run a bit. There's Guillermo Salazar, who has demonstrated extra-base power, but I don't see a natural path to him getting consistent playing time. Center Field remains a big question mark. I saw both of the incoming freshmen-Smith and Evans-play in the fall game. Both appeared capable in CF and had an idea of what they were doing at the plate (both also had hits). I didn't see Kelly, but he's probably in the mix too. The competition for CF is also probably a competition for who bats ninth given the way the rest of the lineup probably shakes out. Hopefully the 9th spot will be more productive offensively.

What this program really needs to take a step forward is consistency. Every time the team approaches or achieves a winning season they wind up going back to the drawing board the next year because the major offense or pitching contributors are seniors or they're drafted. They need to find starters who are going to stick around another year, and when a senior graduates, don't automatically hand his job to a little-used bench player or a freshman. UCD has found some really decent players at the junior college level. While the JC pitching recruits usually wind up being bullpen pieces, the position players often do make a big impact. Does Steven Patterson ring a bell ? You have to have a plan and not just play for one season. That's a big reason why UCD is constantly in re-building mode.

And we may bemoan the lack of velocity of our pitching recruits, but the truth is the real hard-throwers out of HS are going to get drafted, wind up at a big-time school, or maybe a junior college if they don't have the grades. Look across the Causeway. Coach Christiansen often gives a bit of a scouting report on his incoming players. What are the pitchers throwing ? Mid-high 80's, same as we get. That team has 5 straight winning seasons with those kinds of pitchers. Why ? Coaching and defense. We know our coach can get through to the pitchers. Credit him for helping to develop two of UCD's three major league pitchers, and the decision not to develop Daniel Descalso as a pitcher. UCD's defense however is shaky year after year. When I see Sac State their infielders definitely have chemistry on the field. When one guy gets a ball hit to him, the target of his throw knows where to be. They don't have to have a discussion on the field. With UCD I see so often where a shortstop or a third baseman (mainly third basemen) is throwing the ball to where they think it should go without any regard for whether the intended target is in a good position to field it. It's almost like the ball is a hot potato and they're just trying to avoid burning their hands.

One of the hallmarks of the UCD basketball teams of the D-II era was solid fundamental, full-effort, smart gameplay despite having less athleticism and height than their opponents. I don't see that so much with the baseball team. When I say this team will win more, it's counting on that defensive effort improving.