While we can all agree that this season has been frustrating and disappointing, with nine games to go the Ags can still secure a fourth seed and hope to make a good run in the Big West Tourney.
On the negative side is first the defensive inconsistency. The Ags did so well against UCI and so poorly against CSUN. Second is their turnovers. UC Davis is averaging 13 per game and it is not so much the numbers but the fact that a lot of them come from poor passing, i.e. unforced errors. Both of these problems can be fixed if the guys stay focused and disciplined. The next one can’t be fixed: the Aggies’ remaining schedule is very unfavorable. After this weekend, five of the remaining games are away and one of the two home games is against Hawai’i. The team is 2-3 on the road so far.
On the positive side is that the Aggies are capable of playing good defense and defense travels. The Aggies are also a very good three point shooting team. Six of their players with double digit minutes of playing time have 3-point percentages of over 30. As a team, they’re second in the conference. This means that they are capable of winning any game. Third, some of the bench players are starting to contribute. Carl Daughtery has stepped up his game in the last few week and Jane Stokes showed some good things down in Bakersfield.
Some wild cards: Nils Cooper has not played up to his standards of late and did not start against CS Bakersfield. He needs to get his mojo back. Although defenses travels, three point shooting does not. For example, the Ags hit 41% vs. UCSB but only 21% at Hawai`i.
With six teams in the Big West tied or only one game behind UC Davis, I think nothing less than 6-3 finish will keep them in the running for the 4 seed. They definitely do not control their own destiny, however, and any one team that gets on a roll can get ahead of the Ags.
Good synopsis. I agree with the frustrating. There have been at least 3 losses that stick out (including Portland along with the 2 Big West), but 3 impressive wins (including Reno). The teams that really concern me heading into the 2nd half are Northridge and Poly -> they both seem to be hitting their stride. Poly looked like they would be fighting to stay in the tournament, and now they look like they are going to be a tough game every night. I can easily see CSUN in the top 4 by the end of the year.