And what is your current time frame?

I'd say a move somewhere between the 2028 and 2030 season sounds plausible and lines up with the Plough extension and renovation plans.

Sac is playing checkers and UCD is playing chess. I'm very confident in 10 years we'll be looking back and glad we took a more methodical approach. Luke Wood will be an assistant AD at Colorado in 3 years while Sac State athletics is left with a very expensive smoldering pile of rubble.

yeah that isn't happening. Davis isn't close to moving up before 2030 at the earliest if at all. Why?

1. Stadium is not ready for an FBS invite (this will take years to complete. Funding, construction, etc.)
2. TV deals are set for 2029. The FBS as we know it will change from how we know it. Nobody knows what happens to the current FCS teams or the lower FBS teams in the new TV deals.
3. Economic benefit: Cost of moving to FBS has to show a positive net income vs an added expenditure. What is the point of moving up to FBS if it costs the university $5M in expenditures?

If you want an honest timeline, look more for a 2030-2040 timeframe.

1. The plan under the current renovation is to be complete within 5 years. Adding addition seating to that plan to increase capacity doesnt seem impossible.
2. I think this whole changing this is possible, but its all guessing at the moment. I still think positioning ourselves in that lower FBS bracket instead of FCS before those hypothetical changes happen is a good idea. NDSU moved to the MW after the media deal was completed.
3. I think the third one is more complicated, but I think joining the conference that all our other sports are in, continuing to compete in a regional conference like the MW, and increased exposure make it worth it, especially considering the MW schools we have close by.

I see us in the Big Sky for the foreseeable future. Which I love, as long as we are having consistent success at the level of the Montanas/Dakotas on the field and in the stands. It is time for the program to start dominating, as things are set up pretty well for that.

At this point if we aren't able to dominate at the level we are at, we have deeper issues.

legitimately….how do we increase attendance among non-alumni/employee fans when our competition in the region is at a higher level and is more local to the population, especially when we spend far less on marketing and our product is stale?

I agree with the sentiment, but the thing is, the MAC isn't a "higher level" and you know what's "stale" - relegating your football program down to D2 in order to avoid cutting it completely.. Putting a product on the field worth watching (winning) makes way more sense than chasing exposure for the sake of exposure. I think Luke Wood has a tenuous grasp on sports economics let alone basic finance. Winning cures all. That's what UCD should be focused on. Seemingly, they are. Also, nothing scares away donors faster than the possibility the program will be defunct in a few years.

This!!

I'm gonna be a bit harsh but it needs to be said:

1. The plan under the current renovation is to be complete within 5 years. Adding addition seating to that plan to increase capacity doesn't seem impossible. - Have you ever managed a construction project? Do you know the costs associated with building, especially in California? The zoning and environmental impacts that have to be done? Project overruns? Labor shortages? etc. Let's pretend the goal is for 2028, you think the stadium can do all this in 24 months? Not happening.


2. I think this whole changing this is possible, but its all guessing at the moment. I still think positioning ourselves in that lower FBS bracket instead of FCS before those hypothetical changes happen is a good idea. NDSU moved to the MW after the media deal was completed.

What is the benefit of paying millions dollars to join a conference you are not even sure will exist in 2030? What economic benefit does being grouped with the Ball ST, Reno, etc. have prior to the next TV deals? There is none. Whether this happens in 2029 or 2039 there is no incentive to rush playing FBS football. NDSU is a 10 time national champion with a national reputation and a state support, Davis is not even close to that. To compare NDSU to UC Davis is like comparing apples to oranges. NDSU is now on the hook for some serious $$$. That bill isn't going away, they will have to pay a lot of money.

You need to show how UC Davis can make more money moving to FBS vs just adding expenses.

3. I think the third one is more complicated, but I think joining the conference that all our other sports are in, continuing to compete in a regional conference like the MW, and increased exposure make it worth it, especially considering the MW schools we have close by.

I get it. You want to UC Davis on ESPN and playing bigger schools for the pure entertainment of it, but that is not how life works. Davis is not a big time sports school. It never was and it will never be. Davis at its core is a research university. Athletics are a byproduct of the university. That is it.

I want you to go to campus and go stand on our old field by Hickey Gym. Go look at that area. That was the site of UC Davis football for decades. I can't tell you the amount of time my butt was numb from sitting in those metal bleaches. The current stadium didn't come about till 2007. That means in 20 years we have gone form a DII school to people wanting Davis to join the MWC. That is a pretty big move already and you want us to move even faster? For what?

Here is what you have to understand. Everything costs money. A lot of money. I want you to start putting a price tag on ever wish you want to happen for UC Davis.

Example: "I want to move to the MWC by 2028." Breakdown how much that will cost and where you are going to get the money do make it happen. This will help you better understand the effort needed to move to the FBS.

And N. Illinois is now a football only member of the MW. So that's an indictor that 1 MAC school felt the change would be a step up.

I agree that Sac State sees the MAC as a stepping stone. But they have to sign a grant of rights to join a conference. So for the duration of the next media deal the MAC will be making for 2028 and beyond, Sac has a buyout - another chunk of money out the door.

And to be a desirable addition to another conference, Sac will need to be successful on the field and court. That's never a guaranteed outcome.

I think Plough signing the extension is very much like Polasek signing his. It keeps a crucial asset in place to make the move up. That's not a move I would want to make without a coach of my choice running the program.

And, "...Allow the university to plan for that move once they have moved all other sports into the conference later this year."

Actually playing in the MW for other sports for a year. experiencing that environment and seeing how we do in football next year or maybe 2, will be a better time for a definitive announcement? From an AD perspective.

legitimately….how do we increase attendance among non-alumni/employee fans when our competition in the region is at a higher level and is more local to the population, especially when we spend far less on marketing and our product is stale? — RollOnYouAgs

I doubt Akron, Toledo, and for that matter Sac State will not be seen as a higher level of competition than Cal Poly or Montana in our region to the casual Sac metro / Yolo / Solano resident.

To answer your question... facilities improvements, conference titles and deeper playoff runs in the coming seasons should increase attendance / demand for Aggie football.

If facilities improvements and winning don't improve attendance / demand for Aggie Football.....well, that falls under the "we have other problems" category I mentioned (mainly, Davis alums/students and community just don't like or care about football enough).

Time will tell!

This is a well written post and I agree with much of what you say. Actually, I think most of your points line-up with my opinions about the future of the Davis football team and our position within the athletics world. I understand Davis is not a huge sports school. I also know that talking to people on campus regularly, the current classification of being an FCS school but also being D1 but also not really the top of D1 and also being in the Big Sky but actually the Big West is confusing, makes it harder to understand what you are playing for.

I think we have a very good chance to go deep or even win an FCS championship in the next few years, FBS move in the future or not. I look forward to it.

I see no world in which renovations would be complete by 2028 for the stadium, especially considering an addition grandstand or something of the matter on top of the suites being built. I do think you can get the suites built by the end of 2028.

Its a benefit to move to the MW for football because it positions us to not get further relegated if those conferences change in the future. Heck, the worry of having us end up being in a 3rd tier of d1 (if the top of the FBS splits and we have D1, D1AA and D1AAA or something) is worrying. I also think that our move to the MW would be less costly than NDSU considering we will already be a member of the MW for all other sports. I think the rush is simply to position us in the best possible spot for this coming huge college football shakeup you talk about.

I want you to go to campus and go stand on our old field by Hickey Gym. Go look at that area. That was the site of UC Davis football for decades. I can't tell you the amount of time my butt was numb from sitting in those metal bleaches. The current stadium didn't come about till 2007. That means in 20 years we have gone form a DII school to people wanting Davis to join the MWC. That is a pretty big move already and you want us to move even faster? For what?

I think your history of watching UC Davis games is super cool. Hearing about the environment over at Toomey makes for some really fun stories. I also think the reason it took so long for the stadium to be built had a ton of external and internal factors that made it take a long time to get done. I also think in the past 10 years or so we have seen projects get completed faster on campus (and in our Sac campus areas). I think moving from fcs to fbs in 20-25 years is not unprecedented in the slightest either.

I don't just "want to UC Davis on ESPN and playing bigger schools for the pure entertainment of it", I think if we are going to invest in sports like the plan suggests in Aggie Ascent, moving our football team to match the conference we are in makes sense. I have heard you in the past refer to athletics as the front porch of the university, and I think our football team playing in the MW fits that better than the current status of the FCS where we are an outlier in student body size, endowment, research output, location, media market, etc.

Now to the money bit, which again, is all a bit of hearsay from all of us cause we have no idea what the actual books would look like with an FBS move or exactly what they are now (in relation to facilities and program funding) but Aggie Stadium was designed to be expanded to 30k or whatever the exact number was. I don't think we have any reason for an expansion that big, something like 18-20k seems realistic. The stadium already needs these renovations IMO because the gameday experience needs improvement through concessions, seating options, etc. I also think playing schools in the MW gives us a similar if not slightly smaller travel footprint for the program for a lot of the games. While yes, a FBS team is more expensive, moving to the current MW is not like joining the Big10 or even new Pac12.

Again, I think the money, partnerships and readiness of our program for the FBS is not at the place it needs to be in the moment nor will it be in the next few years, I just simply think giving people a more realistic idea of what our plans may be would drum up way more support. Our move to the Mountain West 100% puts us up against more recognizable brands with better fanbases than much of the Big Sky not even counting most of the FCS. I don't think adding Northern Colorado, much less Utah Tech and Southern Utah to the Big Sky was a smart idea after losing a member, while I feel the MW is strengthening itself how it can after losing members.

Positioning ourselves to have a plan in place to be in a conference that our other sports are aligned with, expanding the stadium with realistic amounts of additional seating, limited premium seating/improved gameday concessions, and preparing ourselves to be in a position with other similarly sized, flagship universities when future realignment comes is what I see as a smart move.

I would never want to just force our way instantly into a conference, spend a ton of money on temporary upgrades to facilities and then leave said facilities for new ones, increase travel costs tenfold to play faraway directional universities just to say we are FBS, but I think the MW aligns well with the future of Davis football. Waiting until 2028-2030 to make our push makes sense, waiting until 2040 seems long imo.

So, think for a second what level we are as it relates to CFB in Sacramento - we are between junior college and FBS. How do you excite people to come out to games that aren’t Aggies? How do you get Aggies to spend on the program without a defined and planned goal?

We can keep winning in FCS all we want but we have to maintain our revenue. That will be harder when the perception is we are D2 among non-Aggies in the region and truth be told that is reality, especially with corporate dollars. If you are advertising, are you putting your dollar with the higher or lower visibility product? The realty is UCD is the lower visibility program now. Sac WILL get more corporate money (enough…remains to be seen) and that will siphon off any potential for us. Sac is much more marketable at this time.

Can we survive as the little program in this region? I’m skeptical we can stay the course successfully. While we will always be better than Sac St we may not have the resources to compete with them the more we give them a head start.

As is being discussed here, this is an economics issue to move up or not. But what lacks in the dialogue are:
- consideration of our lost revenue (realized current or future) due to Sac’s gain through corporate or casual fan development
- future increase in cost to move up
- sustainability in FCS if our revenues drop relative to increased cost of an FCS program
- cost of a large segment of the Aggie fan base being pretty letdown by not just Sac, but NDSU jumping us without any apparent serious attempt to fundraise amongst us with an actual plan.

All of us here despite our disagreements our frankly diehards, and probably amount the most informed and engaged Aggies. A whopping 20 of us or so? I have 20 or so friends and fellow Aggies who are not here who asking WTF are we doing? The vagueness of our course is not helping increase donations or interest. We aren’t interested in funding something (Aggie Ascent) just to stay where we are, and the ambiguous statements and lack of vision is not building confidence.

The point is, what are we doing to gain NEW donors and create new corporate sponsorships? To be honest, Rocko and the ICA sound lost and without a clue what’s next for us in their generic forward looking statements. If they had a plan, we’d know. I think what we are all demanding, those of us here and not here, is some solid and tangible planning instead of concepts that could happen.

According to The big mountain podcast, UCD is expected to move around 2028-2029. I recommend their channel for news regarding conference news.

https://youtube.com/@thebigmountainpodcast?si=IdeuIGKUFCJgD5Ar

Thats what most people online seem to think.