MBB 7:30 pm Saturday ESPN3: Aggies @ Irvine for the Big West Championship According to ESPN, the Ags have a 29.6% chance of winning the game tonight and, of course, the chances of getting the #1 seed a certain berth in the NIT if they do not win the Big West Tournament. I am not sure how ESPN gets these probabilities, but assuming they are even remotely accurate, I figure that if they lose, their chances of getting the #2 seed are 1%, the #3 seed 18% and the #4 seed 48.6%. These percentages are based on gauchodan's analysis of what CSUF and UCSB need to do, plus a multiplication of ESPN's probabilities of their doing it.
The Aggies are 5-11 against the Anteaters in Irvine, but only 2-8 since joining the Big West.
Probabilities and history, however, do not tell the story. BlueGoldAg paints a scary, but accurate picture of UCI's prowess, but in games like this, it often comes down to heart and grit and I have never seen a team with more of both than this year's team, especially after Chima was suspended. I agree that this will be a war with both teams playing well lately. I hope the officiating is not a factor.