Haha. I do enjoy running through various scenarios like this.

I think that's a bit pessimistic and I think there's some wiggle room in your predictions depending on exactly how the wins/losses shake out.

I agree on the winning out/losing out scenarios. If we win out, we're getting a bye. Winning out would mean we'd be 10-1, probably co-Big Sky champs (with Sac and/or Montana St) wins over an FBS team, and at least two playoff teams (I bet Weber gets in if they win out, which they probably will so that would be three playoff teams). I think the only way we lose out and get in is if all three are close losses. But even then we're 100% going on the road.

Winning 2 of 3, we're definitely in but we probably don't get a bye. The one scenario where we could get a bye would be a close loss to EWU/Sac. Eastern is probably a top-10 team when we play them unless they get blasted by Montana St. Sac's up to 15 in the STATS poll, won today and should win their next two. They're a top-10 team when we play them. That matters for optics. But I think we absolutely get a home game if we win two of three unless EWU or Sac just hammers us. But EWU hammered us in 2018 and we not only got a home game but a bye also. Let's say EWU hammers us. We'd be 9-2, wins over FBS/playoff Weber/playoff Sac. That's a top-16 team, which is what you need for a home game.

Winning only 1 of 3 and I think we still get in, though I doubt we get a home game. The only way we would get a home game is if we beat NAU and lose close to EWU/Sac. But realistically we're probably not hosting. But a 8-3 Big Sky team with an FBS win and at Weber is definitely getting in. Maybe if we get blasted by EWU/Sac and barely scrape by NAU we get left out. But even then, I think we still get in, though yes, we'd be a bottom seed and would probably face #9-12 in the first round.

He was quite fast though. — NCagalum

*checks who Rich Martini was drafted by and sees it was the Raiders*

Well, I think you provided us the reason he was drafted. I'm sure it wasn't the first time Al took a flier on someone because of speed and it certainly wasn't the last.

Was trying to find his UCD stats. Looked in our record book and he doesn't show up on any type of stats list. He's in there as he played, was drafted and got elected to the UCD HOF.

Kind of hilarious he actually got drafted by the NFL. Maybe some of our more seasoned posters can shed some light on that.

Only played 1 year in FCS with Marshall (second year they moved up to FBS) but Randy Moss is absolutely a transcendent FCS athlete.

78 rec, 1709 yds (21.9 yds per rec) and 28 TDs in 15 games. They went 15-0, won every game by at least 14 points and beat Montana by 20 in the title game.

Marshall moved up to FBS the next year and he was actually better: 13 games, 96 rec, 1820 yds, 26 TDs. There was a reason he was originally signed by Notre Dame before going to Florida State.

I'm not sure he was transcendent, but Ramses Barden was absurd for Poly.

Last two years combined at Poly, he had 124 rec for 2724 yds (yes, that's 22.0 yards per reception) and 36 TD in 22 games for a team that ran the triple option (i.e. QB wasn't the best at passing). He reminded me of the FCS version of Calvin Johnson (played at Georgia Tech when they ran the triple option). Barden was 6'-6" and couldn't be covered.

In the 2007 game, their QB was 10-15 for 264 yds and 4 TDs. He caught 5 of those passes for 173 yards and 3 TDs.

Ended up getting picked in the 3rd round by the Giants. Imagine that kind of an athlete with a QB who could actually throw.

And then on the other end of the spectrum is Portland State which is awful.

Yeah, it would be a fun matchup. I feel like the game would hinge on if the 2018 team could grab a lead. If 2018 goes up 10-14 points, it's over. The 2021 team isn't winning a shootout and is going to have a tough time coming back. They need a slower, lower scoring game where they could grind out like a 27-24 win.

I'm referring to the 2018 team. You said you'd give the nod to 2021 because of 4th quarter play and defense.

The 2018 team was frequently up 25-30 so they didn't need big time 4th quarter play all the time. But since you like 4th quarter play, the 2018 team did this:

-trailed San Diego 21-20 with 4 minutes left in the third quarter but scored 5 straight TDs to end the game and outscored San Diego 27-0 in the 4th quarter.
-trailed Idaho State 37-22 with 13 minutes left, got 2 TDs in 3 drives to tie the game before winning in OT (got lucky that Idaho missed a short FG at the end of regulation).
-Montana trailed 21-3 at half and 21-13 going into the 4th quarter. Scored 5 straight TDs and outscored Montana 36-0 in the 4th quarter (and 46-0 in the second half).

Based on what each team has done so far (so I'm basing 13 games vs 8), the 2018 is clearly better to me. The 2021 team could end up better if they beat one of Sac/EW, finishes 9-2 and at least wins a playoff game. The 2018 team also handled San Diego, who made the playoffs.

Can't just look at wins. You have you look at losses also. The 2018 team lost to a 9-4 FBS team and twice to the team that made the FCS title game. No losing to a team that, at best, will end up at 3-8. The 2018 team hammered bad teams. We played two close Big Sky games that we won, against two 6-5 teams in Montana (down 21-13 entering the 4th though won by 28) and Idaho St (44-37 in OT).

FWIW, Sagarin has this team at 56.34 at 2018 at 61.86.

Don't need to worry about 4th quarter play when you're up 25-30 going into the 4th quarter week in and week out.

Similar to us in 2018 missing Weber and Montana St. Just the luck of the draw in a huge conference.

2019 they drew EW, Weber, both Montana’s and us.

Decent chance Montana State drops one of @Montana and @EW. Even if Sac loses to us, winning the other three would mean co champs at worst if Montana State drops one.

Yeah, the last two weeks could be rough.

Cal Davis a zero. — movielover

Is the Cal Davis logo actually a thing and if so, where? Honestly curious. I've seen us referred to as Cal Davis on some of the national sites before but didn't know if the university was using it at all.

I know I'm not the only one who hates when UCD is referred to as Cal Davis and it appears you do as well.

Guessing this one won't last long.

Agreed. It would be one thing if they were just hammering everyone they played and you don't want to drop the defending champs until they lose. But Eastern has better wins and has generally been hammering the bad teams.

The coaches poll not even having Sac in there even after they win in Montana is hilariously bad also. And it's not even close either. Coaches have them 34th.

Should move up a couple spots in the polls. We're 13 in the STATS poll and No. 10 East Tennessee and No. 12 Rhode Island both lost. Could jump No.5 Montana since they lost at home to Sac. Their resume isn't all that great. Beat a bad Washington team, 1-6 Western Illinois, 1-5 Cal Poly and 0-5 Dixie St by 17 (we beat them by 33). Their losses are better than ours though. So who knows.

I bet we'll be ahead of them as a lot of voters will dock them for losing to an unranked team (though Sac might be ranked after this) and will give us the nod because we've got a better record.

I’m terrified of their game against us. Fewest points they’ve scored in a game is 34 against Montana. Also put up 35 against UNLV though that took 2 OTs. Only had 20 in regulation. Other 5 they’ve put up at least 50 including 60+ 4 times.

Why do you seem so hell bent on defending terrible people like Jon Gruden?

Like when you say the following...

I believe having an opinion on non-players as coaches / refs (women), and kneeling at games, falls more into strategy and political beliefs. — movielover

it's clear you just don't get it.

Did you even read the article I posted? I'd recommend you do. It will explain things much better than I can.