Rd.2 PLAYOFFS Week 15: UC Davis vs. Illinois State The last time the top 4 seeds all made the semis was 2011. So history says one of them is going to lose.
Four times since then, 3 of the top-4 made it. However three of those instances were in the last 5 years (19, 20 and 22). So while history also says it's likely that at least 2 of the top-4 don't make the semis, we've bucked that trend recently.
Also, fun fact but in the last five seasons, 7 of the 20 top-4 seeds didn't make the semifinals. 3 of those 7 instances of a fop-4 getting upset early were Sac St in 19, 21 and 22.