FWIW, only EWU and Northern Colorado have played all three of UCD, Mont St, Mont this year.

Mont St 42. EWU 28
Mont 52, EWU 49
UCD 48, EWU 38

Mont St 55, UNC 14
Mont 24, UNC 0
UCD 59, UNC 7

We'd likely move behind Montana, unless we lost a very close game by a FG or so. But how far depends on the margin of loss. Lose by 30 and we'll move down a few spots. Lose by 3 and maybe they jump Montana to 4 and move us to 5. As you pointed out, South Dakota didn't drop after they lost at South Dakota St by 3 in OT.

PSU up 51-31 on Sac with 7:12 left in the game.

Me watching Sac turn back into a pumpkin after Troy Taylor left:

I went to a Kings game on election night 2016. The last couple years the NBA hasn't scheduled a single game for election night though, and isn't having any games this year either.

Kind of cool that the last 3 weeks features a round robin between 3 of the best 4 teams in the Big Sky.

Looking forward to the next two weeks. Time to see what this team really has. The win over Idaho was a good one, but at Montana and home to Montana St are a step up (Montana specifically because it’s on the road).

This is the type of performance we wanted to see. No messing around. No “oh look it’s 14-13 at halftime” type of stuff. Just put it on a bad team.

Seems longer in person than when you’re watching at home on TV.

These extended commercial breaks are awful. Both teams are just standing around waiting for 60-90 seconds.

My daughter's soccer game got cancelled so we made the last minute decision to go to the game. So if they play well, I'm taking full credit. But if they lay an egg, I'll take the blame too.

I would have to believe 10-2 absolutely gets us a top-8 seed and a bye. Wins over a top-10 ranked 9-3 Idaho and on the road against a top-15ish 8-4 Montana (lets say they lose to MSU). Losses only to an FBS team and either a 0- or 1-loss Montana St.

We'd likely have to beat Montana and go 10-2 to be a top-5 team, or a scenario where we hammer Sac and UNC but lose tight games to the Montana's. But a 9-3 UCD is definitely behind NDSt, SDSt and Montana St. And I would argue you'd have to give a 9-3 Montana the edge on H2H, even if you consider them basically even. A 9-3 South Dakota would probably be above us (losses to Wisconsin, SDSt by 3 in OT and then NDSt). But I agree that 14 is probably too low.

I don't know enough about the bottom to speak on NAU, but Idaho being #5 vs. us at #14 definitely stood out to me. We'd both have an FBS loss and a loss to Montana State. They would have lost to us while we lost to Montana. I'm sure you could make an argument for them to be ahead of us, but not 9 spots.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2024-10-31/2024-fcs-playoff-bracket-predictions-entering-final-month-season

FWIW. Has us finishing 9-3, beating Northern Colorado and Sac. Predicts us to get the #14 seed and hosting NAU in the first round. Winner would get #3 South Dakota St.

Agreed on NAU vs. UCD. For 8-4 NAU (7-4 vs. FCS or better like you said) to get in over an 8-4 UCD, I think we'd have to squeak by Northern Colorado and get hammered by the Montana's and Sac. NAU would also probably need Sac to win out to bolster the resume.

Assuming a win over Northern Colorado (not a sure thing!), yes, if we lose all three we'd be 8-4. According to the probabilities, that's a 25% chance of happening.

So the second part of his post is that if there's a 25% chance we lose all three, that means there's a 75% chance we win at least 1 of the 3 games, which means there's a 75% chance we finish with at least a 9-3 record. Again, assuming a win over Northern Colorado.

Even though I don't think we're actually the 4th best team in the FCS, it's still cool as hell to be ranked that high.

Let's just hope they treat Northern Colorado the same way they treated Cal Poly and put this thing away quickly.

You'd probably need a scenario where two of the Dakota's win out, giving a couple losses to the others, and we would have to lose tight games to the Montana schools while handling Northern Colorado and Sac relatively easily.

NDSt only plays South Dakota and they have 3 ranked wins. Losing that one puts them at 10-2 so they'd be ahead of 9-3 UCD regardless.
Montana State would also likely be ahead of us since in that scenario they'd beat us and, at worst, have the same 9-3 record.
The other Dakota's come down to how the games go. You could have a scenario where SD beats NDSt but loses to ND and SDST. Then you'd have NDST with 2 losses, SD with 3 losses, the winner of SDST-ND would have 2 losses and the loser would have 3 losses. All four would probably be ahead of us.
If Montana beats Montana St and UCD, they'll likely win out, would be 10-2 and ahead of us. Even if they lose to MSU, a 9-3 Montana with a H2H win over a 9-3 UCD is probably ranked above UCD.

So realistically, we'd have to finish 10-2 to be in the top-3 or 4 unless some upsets happen.

I definitely do. Bad Beats is one of my favorite TV segments and it was awesome that Davis got on there, especially since we still won the game.

In a dream last night we beat Northern Colorado 52-49. I think that would count a let down game but at the same time, it's a win.