2024 Week 12: #2 Montana State (10-0) @ #4 UC Davis (9-1) Re: the 2-point. It's simple math. And I honestly don't think there's a difference between losing 30-14 and 30-15. And once he passed on the 2-point to make it 30-15, you're correct that there isn't really a point in going for it to make it 30-23 vs 30-22.
Let's say for simplicity sake that we have a 50% chance of completing a 2-point and a 100% chance of making an extra point. Your scenarios where you tie the game are:
2P Make + XP Make + XP Make = 0.5 * 1.0 * 1.0 = 50% chance of tying.
2P Miss + 2P Make + 2P Make = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 12.5% chance of tying
So by going for it on the first one, you have roughly a 62.5% chance of tying the game if you manage to get 3 TDs.
XP Make + XP Make + 2P Make = 1.0 * 1.0 * 0.5 = 50% chance of tying.
Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe they go for it and miss, then miss one of the following 2 and lose anyway. But it's all about what increases your chances of winning the most.
Additionally, if we're talking about what increases the chances of winning the game, rather than just tying it, by kicking the XP and just trying for 2 at the end, if they get it, they only go to OT. If you get the 2-point to make it 30-16, get a TD + XP to make it 30-23 and get a TD to make it 30-29, Plough would have then have had the option to say hey, let's go for the win right here. And the stats will tell you (multiple NFL teams have done this and North Dakota actually just did it today) that when you're down 14 late in the 4th quarter, you actually increase your chances of winning the game if on the first TD, you go for 2 to try to make it a 6 point game. The thought being that if you get the 2-point and get another TD, you kick the XP and win the game outright. If you don't get the 2-point, you can still get the next one and go to OT.
EDIT: And to be clear, that's not an extra 12.5% chance of tying the game. That's an extra 12.5% chance of tying the game IF we score 3 TDs. So Plough not going for it on the 1st TD (to make it 30-15) didn't drop our overall chances of tying the game by 12.5%. The actual number is much lower than that since you have to account for all of the other scenarios (like only scoring 1 TD or only scoring 2 TDs).