Good start! Aggie's D is really tough.

You're right. Nothing wrong with my math, just my logic. Only one event has to happen, so it's either we win or the Beach loses then we clinch, which makes it a 59.6% chance of our not clinching, so a 40% of clinching.

ESPN gives UC Davis only a 16% chance of winning. At the same time, it gives the Beach a 71% of beating UCSB. If I remember my probability calculation correctly, this means the odds of the Ags securing the second seed tonight are 4.6% (assuming ESPN's analytics are also correct).

Thanks

I can't remember if the Big West Tournament is only on ESPN+ or will be televised on something like ESPNU. Anybody know?

Poly will have lost 38 consecutive Big West games. I wonder what the Division 1 record is for any school in any conference in that regard? I couldn't find it on the internet, only that Towson State has the longest overall losing streak: 41.

Unfortunately, one Beach win and one UCD loss could happen at the same time. Meanwhile, CSULB plays a still struggling UCSB at home while the Ags have to travel to both San Diego and Long Beach. If I were a betting man, I'd say the odds are long on us getting the 2 seed. On the other hand, if the Ags bring their A game I wouldn't be surprised to see a SoCal sweep.

So we need to root for the Anteaters on Saturday then hope that the Aggies can at least split their last two road games (or that the Beach loses to both UCI and UCSB). If Pepper is back on track, I'm optimistic.

It looks like the Ags have clinched at least a 3 seed.

Did I hear Scott Marsh say that Long Beach had two key players out tonight?

Great to see Pepper break out on Senior night! Does this clinch at least a four seed?

Pepper is still struggling from outside, but he still got 10. He and TY are the difference in the game, but Ade now has the energy that had been missing recently. In fact, the whole team has energy, which shows on the boards. They have 4 offensive rebounds to Hawai`i's 0. Only 2 turnovers to Hawai`i's 7.

Great start! Smart of Jim Les to set up a play for Eli to get a wide open mid-range shot to get him going. Hope it works.

The Honoluly paper had some nice quotations from Coach Les and underscored the importance of the game for both teams, noting that Hawai`i i has--as of pre-game--a mathematical shot at the two seed.

Hawai`i has swept UCD at least 4 times since both teams joined the Big West. When the Rainbow Warriors first joined, I thought they would dominate since it was a step down from them from the Mountain West and teams like Utah and Brigham Young, but they've never done well on the road and that has been their Achilles heel. Hope that continues tonight.

Given what Eli Pepper has invested in staying at Davis, he must be terribly frustrated at how his recent shooting slump has been much of the problem in their last three games, two losses and a close win at CSUN. I wonder if he's putting too much pressure on himself. I don't think it's due to anything special that defenses are doing, after all, it's not like his abilities are new to the other coaches. I hope he can shake it off down the stretch. The Ags have enough talent to win the tournament if they do't beat themselves.

True and this season, Hawai`i has not gotten a W against a Big West team with a winning record. They're 3-5 with their three wins coming over UCR, Poly and Fullerton. I hope that trend continues.

Good news: Hawai`i beats the Beach so Ags still have the second seed.

Bad news: Hawai`i comes to Davis next week.

The stats tell much of the story. Ags got out-rebounded 39-27 and on the offensive boards 16-7. CSUB had 8 more assists and twice as many steals and blocks as UCD. Ags made only 25% of their 3s while the Runners gunned for 39%. The question is why? How does a team lose that much focus and energy from not that long ago?

I second what everyone else has written. This is both mystifying and sad. Tonight had to be the worst game of the season considering the opponent. I mean losing by nearly 20 to a team that will not likely qualify for the playoffs does not bode well for the Aggies as we head down the stretch against Hawai`i, UCSD and the Beach. Even fourth place is starting to look shaky now.