If Sagarin ratings are good for anything, they are predictive of point spreads. Any of the bottom six are closer to Cal Poly than they are to any one of the top six, and the top six are all within 8 points of each other. There is no team in the conference in the neighborhood of the mean rating for the conference, that what I meant by saying there is no middle. The sixth place team isn’t close to the seventh place team, there is a two touchdown difference.

There is no middle in the Big Sky right now. Huge drop off from Montana to Portland State, although they both have three loses in conference. Davis isn’t in the middle yet, but will fall into that with another two losses.

The Big Sky is an unusually tiered league this season. Six winning teams, all rated by Sagarin in the 60s, no teams rated in the fifties, six in the thirties and forties. The out of conference schedule was an FBS team, an FCS national power and a San Diego team not having a great year. Davis has pulled no upsets, nor been upset. In every game they’ve been an underdog or a heavy favorite.

He was upstairs recovering from a heart issue. Sounds like his meds need adjustment.

I suspect he won’t be coaching there either.

This is our fourth of five ranked opponents. If Idaho isn’t ranked by some they should be.
According to Sagarin Idaho is 102, Davis is 104, sandwiched around Army.
Not much separates these teams statistically. Both have similar stats passing, Davis runs the ball a little better, but Idaho has better run defense. Should be a close game, a must win for Davis,

Hastings has had unusual success with end of half drives.

Looks like Idaho State has a good run defense and we’re not going to give up on the run because we’ve got so many receivers out.

Hayden Hatten has four touchdown receptions in the first half against Eastern Wahington,

In high school track Chukwudobe ran a 100m just under 11 seconds and was also the league champion in the 200m. He has added a significant amount of weight in college though.
A few years back in 2020 they had a profile of him during winter practice before the pandemic, and they had his speed wrong by about a second in the 100.
He’s got enough size and speed to be in the mix at running back if he can make good cuts like he did in his big run.

https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndField/SchoolRecords.aspx?SchoolID=1643

There are two separate but overlapping laws in California, driving under the influence, and driving with a blood alcohol limit over the limit. They commonly charge you with both and you can be guilty found guilty of none one or both. The blood alcohol ticket requires a test with a breath device. The driving under the influence ticket means you couldn’t follow the physical procedures like standing on one foot etc to the satisfaction of the police officer. In any case there is no waiting around for a few weeks to get charged.

This must be some Idaho procedure. Here they do a breath test and then haul you off to the station and do it again on a better machine. I only know this cause I was on a jury fortunately.

Ok, the consensus is that I’m wrong. However I’d still rather tie Sac State for third than be behind them in fourth.

If we lose another game we’re likely out of it. If we finish tied for third or better in the big sky we’re in for sure and seeded. Best hope win out and Sac loses another game. Unlikely but there is a chance, mostly in our control if Weber can beat Sac.

If we win out we beat Idaho and Sac. (by definition)
If Sac loses an additional game besides to us then Davis, Sac, Idaho will all have 2 losses. Two teams have the potential of better records, Montana State undefeated and Weber with only 1 loss.
So we could be tied for third.
Montana already has 3 losses. They are only in the picture if we lose again.

The best loss would be Sac State because if we win out we’d be at worst tied for third with Sac and Idaho who we would have defeated.

Yeah, I had to go back and watch the kickoff returns. Frazier made an outstanding tackle on the kickoff towards the end of the second quarter. He also had another tackle on a kickoff, when Kraut was in wearing #0.
Frazier is an outstanding player.

The box score doesn’t list the starters for Davis. In the game one of the #13 had to change his number to 0 as both were on a kick coverage team. They have Logan Kraut with two solo tackles on kickoff returns and DeVon Frazier not listed.

Montana’s announcers are doing a road game, That’s not the usual pattern on the ESPN+ games. They’re homers on an away game.

Sagarin ratings are pure points, no stats. UCD rated highly due to game scores and our opponents scores against their opponents, But the stats support the ranking. They’ve played good teams close and lost and they’ve played bad teams and run up big margins. What we haven’t seen yet is beating a good team.