I still think it's going to take an upset for the Big Sky to not get 5. FWIW, this playoff prediction on AGS has the Big Sky easily getting 5.

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?285441-Week-9-Playoff-Prognostication

This one has 5 also:

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-2021-playoff-predictions-9-bzbz/

I posted in another thread that since the bracket expanded to 24 teams, no 8 win or better team from the Big Sky, CAA or MVFC had ever missed out on the playoffs. UCD and Mont St are already at 8. EW and Sac just have to beat Portland St to be at 8 and Montana just has to beat Idaho. The H2H games between the top-5 don't matter as far as getting to 8 wins unless there's an upset.

My best guess in the STATS poll is that we jump from 8 to either 7 or 6. We won't jump NDST and SDST will almost certainly jump us for beating NDST. I think we'll leap Southern Illinois and SE Louisiana. Eastern Washington is a maybe. If we go ahead of EW, we're 6 and if we don't, we're 7.

Could also be that he's more comfortable in the pocket now and is going through his progressions more so he doesn't feel the need to take off at the first sign of trouble.

I don't know if either thought is correct, just throwing out a potential alternative reason as to why the rushing numbers have declined.

Agreed on the ranking, though that will obviously be sorted out in the next two weeks. 2-0 and we’re a solid top-5 team regardless of the scores. 1-1 and we’re probably in the 8-13 range depending on the exact scores of the games. 0-2 and we drop to the 17-22 range, again depending on the scores.

Yep. I’m just going off the STATS poll for three actual rankings. I don’t even look at the Coaches Poll. EW might stay above us but the other two will definitely drop, even if it’s only a couple spots.

FWIW, we’ll jump up a couple spots in the polls. 5, 6 and 7 all lost today. South Dakota St will probably jump us after beating NDSt.

Not much different than ours in 2018. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don’t.

In 2019 they played the teams that finished 3, 4 and 6 in the rankings plus EWU.

Yeah, if you care about potentially winning the conference then you want EWU to win. Playoff seeding I’m not sure it matters all that much.

Just tuned in. Looks from the score and stats that were playing fairly well.

Says in Nevada that probation is not an option for a conviction on a charge of DUI causing death or DUI causing substantial bodily injury. Both carry a possible sentence of 2-20 years. His girlfriend had to go to the hospital with a severe arm injury so he could get a second charge for that. Plus there could be a weapons charge.

He absolutely deserves to go to jail and hopefully he doesn't get off without jail time.

I think we need another win to guarantee a spot. If we lose three close games maybe we squeak in but it's unlikely.

Which is weird because UNI lost to Iowa State, NDST and South Dakota (No. 23) and has beaten 3 ranked teams, two of which are in the top 10. Montana beat Washington, which is a good win, but haven't done much since. Resume wise, UNI should probably be ahead of both teams.

And it's also generally hard for teams to be dropped unless they lose. Sure, you might drop a spot if you barely beat a bad team and somebody behind you wins, but if teams in front of you lose, even if it's to another good team, you'll jump up.

Hell of a run for him. Very close to making the BCS title game in a couple season in the Mountain West and finished No. 2 in the 2010 season. Then they go to the Big 12 and in his third year they go 12-1, only lose on the road to Baylor by 3 and got screwed out of a playoff appearance because the Big 12 didn't have a championship game then (only 10 teams). So the conference declared co-champs and the committee punted and selected the other four conference champs. Thought they had a better resume than OSU (the 4 seed) that year. They were actually seeded 3rd by the committee that year going into the last week, beat Iowa State 55-3 and were jumped by 3 teams, one of which was Florida State who won by 2.

Fresh off a dominating performance against the bye week, the Ags move up in the polls!

Up a spot in the STATS poll as well.

This year is back to a 24 team playoff format. Last year being 16 teams was just for the weird spring season.

Depending on the results of course, but I think 5 teams is realistic. 6 is probably unlikely, though possible (the CAA got 6 teams in 2018 including a 6-4 Elon team and three 7-4 teams). Missouri Valley had 5 teams in 2014, 2015, 2017. Right now we've got (by the STATS poll):

No. 6 Montana St 7-1 (@ EWU, vs Ida, @ Mont)
No. 7 EWU 7-1 (vs MSU, @UCD, @PSU)
No. 9 UCD 7-1 (@ NAU, vs EWU, vs Sac)
No. 11 Montana 6-2 (@ NCU, @ NAU, vs MSU)
No. 15 Sac 6-2 (vs CP, vs PSU, @ UCD)
No. 23 Weber 4-4 (vs. PSU, @SUU, @NCU)

The only upset by one of the other 7 teams this year against one of the 6 ranked teams was Idaho St beating us. Put another way, the 6 ranked teams are a combined 24-6 in the league this year. Take out the H2H games and they're a combined 19-1. So let's assume that continues since there appears to be a clear divide between the top 6 and the bottom 7. That means without any upsets the worst case scenario for each team would be 8-3 MSU, 8-3 EWU, 8-3 UCD, 8-3 Montana, 8-3 Sac, 7-4 Weber. Obviously all the teams couldn't end up at that record since someone has to win each H2H game and there certainly could be an upset or two.

Since the bracket expanded to 24 teams in 2013, every single team that had 3 or fewer losses from the Big Sky, CAA and MVFC has made the playoffs. Some 7-4 teams have missed it but 8-3 = playoffs. So what I'm saying is there's probably going to need to be some upsets for only 4 Big Sky teams to make it.

Haha. I do enjoy running through various scenarios like this.

I think that's a bit pessimistic and I think there's some wiggle room in your predictions depending on exactly how the wins/losses shake out.

I agree on the winning out/losing out scenarios. If we win out, we're getting a bye. Winning out would mean we'd be 10-1, probably co-Big Sky champs (with Sac and/or Montana St) wins over an FBS team, and at least two playoff teams (I bet Weber gets in if they win out, which they probably will so that would be three playoff teams). I think the only way we lose out and get in is if all three are close losses. But even then we're 100% going on the road.

Winning 2 of 3, we're definitely in but we probably don't get a bye. The one scenario where we could get a bye would be a close loss to EWU/Sac. Eastern is probably a top-10 team when we play them unless they get blasted by Montana St. Sac's up to 15 in the STATS poll, won today and should win their next two. They're a top-10 team when we play them. That matters for optics. But I think we absolutely get a home game if we win two of three unless EWU or Sac just hammers us. But EWU hammered us in 2018 and we not only got a home game but a bye also. Let's say EWU hammers us. We'd be 9-2, wins over FBS/playoff Weber/playoff Sac. That's a top-16 team, which is what you need for a home game.

Winning only 1 of 3 and I think we still get in, though I doubt we get a home game. The only way we would get a home game is if we beat NAU and lose close to EWU/Sac. But realistically we're probably not hosting. But a 8-3 Big Sky team with an FBS win and at Weber is definitely getting in. Maybe if we get blasted by EWU/Sac and barely scrape by NAU we get left out. But even then, I think we still get in, though yes, we'd be a bottom seed and would probably face #9-12 in the first round.

He was quite fast though. — NCagalum

*checks who Rich Martini was drafted by and sees it was the Raiders*

Well, I think you provided us the reason he was drafted. I'm sure it wasn't the first time Al took a flier on someone because of speed and it certainly wasn't the last.

Was trying to find his UCD stats. Looked in our record book and he doesn't show up on any type of stats list. He's in there as he played, was drafted and got elected to the UCD HOF.

Kind of hilarious he actually got drafted by the NFL. Maybe some of our more seasoned posters can shed some light on that.