I think the Big Sky gets 5 in barring someone losing a game they shouldn't. The CAA appears to not be as good this year which helps on the at-large bid front. JMU and Villanova are locks. William and Mary and Rhode Island could both get to 8-3, but W&M still plays James Madison so they're probably going 7-4. Rhode Island could get to 8-3 but they haven't beaten a single good team this year. They just beat FBS UMass but UMass probably wouldn't make the FCS playoffs (in Sagarin, they're ranked 9 spots below Idaho St and two spots above Northern Colorado. William and Mary beat Villanova but that's it. So they could only be a 3-bid league which helps.

Northern Iowa could definitely still get in. If they went 7-4, they seem to have the resume to get in.

NDSt and SDSt are almost certainly in. Southern Illinois I would think would be in also since they should finish 8-3. If Northern Iowa wins out, that would mean beating Missouri State, who would then also finish 7-4. Missouri St would only end up with 1 win against a team probably ranked at the end of the year. Northern Iowa would not only have the H2H win over Missouri St but wins over SDSt, Southern Illinois and Sac St. South Dakota (6-3) is also in the mix but they end the year with SDSt and NDSt, so decent chance they end up 6-5. They did beat Northern Iowa, but that's their only win over a team that would be ranked. So barring upsets, I wouldn't be surprised if Northern Iowa gets in. They played every good team in that conference plus added Sac St.

Totally understandable. We’re going to find out a lot about this team the next two weeks. Going 2-0 would probably be the most surprising result but it’s not like either Sac or EW is peak NDSt where if you lose by 15 it’s a good result. No set of results the next two weeks will truly surprise me.

If we get outplayed in both but win both by a single point, we’re basically guaranteed a bye. EW will be a top 10 team this week and wouldn’t drop much with a close road loss. Then they’ll probably beat PSU so they’d probably end the year at worst in the 10-12 range. Sac could be a top-10 team by the time we play them (don’t know the other results in front of them this week plus who knows what happens next week) so they’d probably end up in the same 10-14 range. So we’d have an FBS win plus two wins over playoff teams who will probably host games in that scenario.

Yeah, only way we’re #4 is if we win twice.

Blown out twice I bet we’re still in but would 100% be on the road.

I still think it's going to take an upset for the Big Sky to not get 5. FWIW, this playoff prediction on AGS has the Big Sky easily getting 5.

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?285441-Week-9-Playoff-Prognostication

This one has 5 also:

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-2021-playoff-predictions-9-bzbz/

I posted in another thread that since the bracket expanded to 24 teams, no 8 win or better team from the Big Sky, CAA or MVFC had ever missed out on the playoffs. UCD and Mont St are already at 8. EW and Sac just have to beat Portland St to be at 8 and Montana just has to beat Idaho. The H2H games between the top-5 don't matter as far as getting to 8 wins unless there's an upset.

My best guess in the STATS poll is that we jump from 8 to either 7 or 6. We won't jump NDST and SDST will almost certainly jump us for beating NDST. I think we'll leap Southern Illinois and SE Louisiana. Eastern Washington is a maybe. If we go ahead of EW, we're 6 and if we don't, we're 7.

Could also be that he's more comfortable in the pocket now and is going through his progressions more so he doesn't feel the need to take off at the first sign of trouble.

I don't know if either thought is correct, just throwing out a potential alternative reason as to why the rushing numbers have declined.

Agreed on the ranking, though that will obviously be sorted out in the next two weeks. 2-0 and we’re a solid top-5 team regardless of the scores. 1-1 and we’re probably in the 8-13 range depending on the exact scores of the games. 0-2 and we drop to the 17-22 range, again depending on the scores.

Yep. I’m just going off the STATS poll for three actual rankings. I don’t even look at the Coaches Poll. EW might stay above us but the other two will definitely drop, even if it’s only a couple spots.

FWIW, we’ll jump up a couple spots in the polls. 5, 6 and 7 all lost today. South Dakota St will probably jump us after beating NDSt.

Not much different than ours in 2018. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don’t.

In 2019 they played the teams that finished 3, 4 and 6 in the rankings plus EWU.

Yeah, if you care about potentially winning the conference then you want EWU to win. Playoff seeding I’m not sure it matters all that much.

Just tuned in. Looks from the score and stats that were playing fairly well.

Says in Nevada that probation is not an option for a conviction on a charge of DUI causing death or DUI causing substantial bodily injury. Both carry a possible sentence of 2-20 years. His girlfriend had to go to the hospital with a severe arm injury so he could get a second charge for that. Plus there could be a weapons charge.

He absolutely deserves to go to jail and hopefully he doesn't get off without jail time.

I think we need another win to guarantee a spot. If we lose three close games maybe we squeak in but it's unlikely.

Which is weird because UNI lost to Iowa State, NDST and South Dakota (No. 23) and has beaten 3 ranked teams, two of which are in the top 10. Montana beat Washington, which is a good win, but haven't done much since. Resume wise, UNI should probably be ahead of both teams.

And it's also generally hard for teams to be dropped unless they lose. Sure, you might drop a spot if you barely beat a bad team and somebody behind you wins, but if teams in front of you lose, even if it's to another good team, you'll jump up.

Hell of a run for him. Very close to making the BCS title game in a couple season in the Mountain West and finished No. 2 in the 2010 season. Then they go to the Big 12 and in his third year they go 12-1, only lose on the road to Baylor by 3 and got screwed out of a playoff appearance because the Big 12 didn't have a championship game then (only 10 teams). So the conference declared co-champs and the committee punted and selected the other four conference champs. Thought they had a better resume than OSU (the 4 seed) that year. They were actually seeded 3rd by the committee that year going into the last week, beat Iowa State 55-3 and were jumped by 3 teams, one of which was Florida State who won by 2.

Fresh off a dominating performance against the bye week, the Ags move up in the polls!

Up a spot in the STATS poll as well.