Week 11: UC Davis (5-4) @ Idaho (6-3) To piggyback off of movie's response a bit.
If we beat Sac, we're in for sure. I would bet literally anything in the world on that. Additionally - and we'll get a better idea this week when the polls come out - if we beat Sac I think we get a home game in the first round (though no bye). All you have to be is top-16 and you get a home game. Take it FWIW, but Sagarin has us as the 6th best FCS team. Massey has us 13th. Bill Connelly's SP+ has us 11th. If we beat a top-3 (by the computers and polls) team regardless of how ugly it is, we're moving up.
Live movie said, we're in a top-2 conference, we've hammered every bad team we've played, we just beat a ranked team on the road fairly easily and our only losses were to FBS, #1, #3, #7. Plus we'd be riding a 6 game win streak capped off by beating an undefeated team.
A loss and I think it depends in part on how we lose. If we get blown out it becomes tougher. But a close loss and our only bad loss was by 17 to Montana State which isn't even that bad of a loss. We were within a TD with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Northern Iowa got in at 6-5 last year. They had one bad loss to a 4-7 team in OT but otherwise only lost to playoff teams. However, they had three wins over playoff teams including 2 on the road. 2018 Northern Iowa probably had a worse resume than we would this year with two losses to sub-.500 teams though they did beat South Dakota St by 15.
So to summarize, win and we're in for sure, maybe with a home game. Lose and we sweat it out.