I think instead of New Mexico and UNLV, you might see Cal and Stanford instead. Those are traditional FBS schools but they geographically stunted and if the next deal gets reduced, I’d expect the ACC to push them out because the ROI will not be good enough. If that happens where does Cal and Stanford go?

I thought there was a lot of interesting information in this link:

Can UW Sports Compete In Division I As Lower Divisions Offer More NIL Money?

Here are some snippets:

Montana and Montana State, who compete in a tier below Wyoming, each spend $2.2 million on NIL, while Wyoming spends $1.4 million. "That's embarrassing," one Wyoming booster said. "Schools that don't sit on the wealth of money we do are outspending us."

UW Athletic Director Tom Burman offered a pointed rebuttal to those suggesting Wyoming consider the FCS route.

"The better question is, why are Montana, Montana State begging to get into the Mountain West?" Burman told Cowboy State Daily. "I can tell you that the top tier of the FCS is willing to pay money to join the Mountain West."

"Maybe the Big Sky doesn't want us,” Ortiz said. "Maybe we're in a league with Chadron State. From an enrollment standpoint, there's a lot of Division II and Division III schools that have the same enrollment as Laramie does.”

Cal and Stanford will wind up back aligned with UCLA, Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Oregon State, and Washington State for football. The real interesting thing will be the next rung down, the Fresno/Boise/SDSU types, and whether the Montana’s and Dakota’s level up to that world.