Exactly. Would take a legit FCS upset or FBS win for the 2nd place team to be considered, coupled with a 9-1 record with their only loss to an undefeated champion. Only way any of them makes it unless they have someone on the committee
This is a game from earlier in the year, but this Tarleton State team is the real deal, they can score like nobody's business. Upset win @ Army after destroying the Vikings in Hillsboro, they've been basically scoring 50+ every game since.
#3 Tarleton State
@ Portland State, W 42-0
@ Army, W 30-27 (2OT)
vs. Mississippi Valley State, W 59-3
@ Central Arkansas, W 56-10
vs. Chattanooga, W 52-24
vs. Southern Utah, W 52-42
@ Utah Tech, W 41-23
One thing you notice with SDSU and NDSU is how sound they are defensively - how consistent and physical they are, main reason they continue to win the FCS Natty.
Preview of the Mountain West (what's left of it that's staying) - a couple of the best, UNLV and Air Force were head-to-head last Saturday - how would the Aggies match up?
I honestly think the new (remaining) mountain west is pretty decent and will end up being a good FBS spot for Davis. Decent teams that often go to bowl games and occasionally stack up 10 win seasons but are not constantly CFB playoff level teams. Also geographically it’s pretty great with sjsu and Nevada so close and the rest of the school almost in the same travel footprint as the Big Sky.
UNLV is going to be the standard in that conference. Facilities are unbelievable and there is a lot of money behind them. Mullen is an outstanding coach and a very likeable guy. Air Force is consistently competitive and a nightmare to prepare for so they'll always be in the mix. Their NIL pitch is that every player gets paid anyway, and walks into an $80k job the day he graduates so that is attractive. Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame last year and is mostly good in my lifetime. Those three will be the top tier. In the middle, SJSU is very well run and Kenny has experience getting a lot out of very little. Wyoming was good not too long ago and has great facilities and a wind that never stops blowing. The bottom tier is Nevada, New Mexico, UTEP, and for now, Wyoming, with the Cowboys are probably the closest to getting into that middle-tier of the conference and going to a bowl.
Hawaii has the right guy steering the ship (alum QB Timmy Chang), he'll never leave, and he will get guys. When Hawaii stays in it's lane and isn't traveling to the Eastern Time Zone and gets to play seven or eight home games every year with Wyoming and/or New Mexico being their worst trips, they will compete. Nobody really runs their Offense anymore (Run & Shoot) and you don't need 4-star players to execute; you need football players that understand defensive coverages who learn to adjust routes. EVERY route is a sight adjust. They will pick-up some stud transfer WR/TE types because of their location and will be a royal pain to defend. They're comfortable shooting it out with opponents but will naturally have some of the better Front 7 personnel in the conference. Their definition of success isn't predicated on NIL money; it's more like ohana and Island Pride with some renegades and undervalued receivers mixed in.
Bottom half of the MWC. Ags can compete with any of those programs on a one game basis but playing all of them consecutively would be the issue. Not to mention the non-conference slate upgrading. One thing to consider is that we're currently in the 63 equivalency scholarship-bracket compared to 105. If we're projecting to be approximately middle of the pack with 63, imagine what we look like as we grown towards 105, pretty exciting!