• CA Forever
    822
    It's time to win some hardware... or should I say keep some hardware as the Aggies are going for their 9th straight victory over the Mustangs. Cal Poly comes into this matchup with a record of 3-2 with wins over San Diego, Western Oregon (D2), and Sacramento State and losses to Utah (FBS) and Stephen F. Austin. The records of their opponents to date are as following: San Diego (3-2), Western Oregon (2-2), Sacramento State (2-3), Utah (4-1), and Stephen F. Austin (3-2). So far this season Cal Poly is scoring 31 points per game while giving up 29.2 points per game. They are currently rushing for 117.2 and passing for 272 yards per game while allowing 180 and 218.8 respectively.

    Due to injuries I believe the Mustangs have fielded several QBs so far this season. They started the season with Pitt transfer Ty Dieffenbach who completed 67.4% of his passes for 579 yards with a 5:1 TD to INT ratio. He has additionally gained over 100 rushing yards on the season. We are familiar with Bo Kelly, but he led Cal Poly in their surprise victory over Sac State. So far this season he's completed 56.4% of his passes for 267 yards with a 3:1 TD to INT ratio. They've also fielded Nevada transfer Anthony Grigsby Jr who has completed 54.6% of his passes for 282 yards with a 2:1 TD to INT ratio as well as Jackson Akins who has completed 47.6% of his passes for 232 yards with a 1:4 TD to INT ratio. Their QB health will be a big question coming into this game. Per the SLO Tribune, Kelly is their 4th option at QB and that Grigsby practiced leading up to the game against Sac, but wasn't quite ready. I personally think Dieffenbach is in a tier of his own in terms of their quality at QB, but clearly they have a couple of capable options considering they took down Sac with their 4th stringer.

    Cal Poly has 3 main targets in the receiving game with one of them being what I would call a significant threat to our pass defense. Their star receiver is Michael Briscoe who has nearly 500 yards on 24 catches and has already snagged 7 TDs. He's 6'2 and weighs over 200 lbs. He's going to be a lot for our DBs to handle especially if Rex isn't ready to go. Their other main targets include Jordan Garrison who has 239 yards on 15 catches with 2 TDs and Kian Salehi who has 213 yards on 15 catches with 1 TD. Keeping Briscoe in check is absolutely one of the major keys to getting a win over Poly.

    The Mustang rushing attack so far this season has not appeared to be deadly by any means, but that doesn't mean that they are incapable of doing damage. Especially, if any of the QBs are playing other than Kelly then they will demonstrate mobility at the position. As far as their RBs go, they have 2 main guys taking snaps. Temple transfer Tyrei Washington has a net 179 yards on 44 attempts (4.1 ypc) with 2 TDs and Trey Wilson with a net of 97 yards on 18 attempts (5.4 ypc) with 1 TD on the season. Additionally, they have Zion Hall who has a net of 48 yards on 12 attempts (4 ypc), but has not had snaps since their season opener against San Diego.

    Cal Poly's defense has been stout so far this season and is being led statistically by Saddleback Community College transfer LB Mikey D'amato who has 56 total tackles on the season with 4 sacks. The Mustangs are additionally getting plenty of contribution from LB Kenny Olson who has 45 total tackles and 2 sacks on the season. Going into the game against Sacramento State the Poly defense had only forced 3 total turnover, but doubled their total as they forced 3 INTs.

    In terms of their kicking they have only missed 1 FG attempt on the season and have a long FG made of 51 yards. Their punter is averaging 42.7 yards per punt.

    To Cal Poly's credit, they look stronger coming into this game than they have in nearly a decade at this point. As previously mentioned, their defense is stout and will test our young QB, that is if he is ready to go as he took some hits against the WIldcats. I'm assuming he will be fine considering he re-entered the game. I have different levels of confidence going against the Mustangs based on the health of Dieffenbach at QB. I believe he is notably more dangerous than their other guys at QB and is the kind of player who can turn losses to wins. If he's out and we don't throw 3 INTs like Sac did then I still like our chances. Massey is giving the Aggies a 77% chance of winning.

    GO AGS! BEAT THE MUSTANGS!
  • AggieFinn
    685
    What's the health status of everyone?
  • CA Forever
    822
    SacBee saying it's a knee injury for Rex and that per Plough "it might be a couple of days before we know more". I know this was a conversation in the Weber thread. By no means do I think Plough is a bad coach, quite the opposite actually, but making an offensive goal line package for your most important player on defense should have never been brought to the table. Monumentally dumb to put a star player at increased risk just as a kuddos to him.
  • Zander
    200
    I’m all for creative packages and putting in backups, defensive guys, linemen etc in as fun wrinkles, but the risk/reward of using Rex seems excessive from the outside looking in.

    That said, i guess i can have some reservations because maybe Rex was showing Jalen Hurts level physicality and tenaciousness in practice and in the weight room before this, and I know that replacing LL and TT for short yardage plays was a tall order.

    Good news, this week might be the one game where Rex could conceivably rest and we’d still be favorites
  • agalum
    411

    Great write up as usual. Thank you!
  • DrMike
    947
    As one of the 10000 whooping it up when I saw Rex in the wildcat, I’m not gonna second guess it now.

    Seriously, how many times have you seen an injury from a power run like that? Hopefully it’s not as serious as we fear. Hopefully his brother’s trip to the tent isn’t serious
  • CA Forever
    822
    No problem! I think we're in for a good game. This has not been a competitive rivalry lately, but I think Cal Poly is bringing a lot more juice this year especially if they are healthy at QB
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.4k
    I cringed when Rex got stood up at the LOS and then got about a 1000 pounds of "tush push" from several of our O linemen...legs can get bent in unnatural ways in a mass of bodies like that.

    Nick Bosa walked off the field with a knee injury last week that didn't initially look all that serious but turned out to be a season ending torn ACL. Rex just might be the #1 DB in the nation at the FCS level. I sure hope his injury is not serious. I'm hoping for the best..fingers crossed.
  • DrMike
    947
    Wulff was here for a short time as a 'volunteer assistant' after that crew got dismissed at Sac State and I heard nothing but raves about him from a couple of our coaches (Sam Young, the Obi Wan of football coaching, told me he learned a ton from Wulff during that season!). Extremely knowledge, and very likable guy. I'm not surprised that they are improving - he didn't inherent a great situation, but he seems to be bringing in quality players.
  • DavisAggie
    65
    Dieffenbach is injured, and Kelly was their starter against Davis last year, before being pulled for Richie Watts, now a linebacker
  • CA Forever
    822
    Correct, I just don't know HOW injured Dieffenbach is. I haven't been able to find anything that says he's done for the season or anything, just that he left the game against SFA. Grigsby is ahead of Kelly on the depth chart and he practiced this last week coming off of a toe injury. Dieffenbach reportedly did not practice at all this last week leading up to Sac State. If Dieffenbach can't go then do we see Grigsby because he was higher on the depth chart or do we see Kelly coming off of a big win?
  • movielover
    598
    Maybe a stout D lineman in the Toki FB role is safer for the playoffs / big games?
  • BaseballAtDobbins
    118
    With CP in a losing streak against the Ags, I'm always afraid of them. Knowing much they want to beat the Ags. We are their #1 rival.
  • DrMike
    947
    and there were some REALLY lopsided losses in that streak. They certainly didn't shy from the challenge last saturday!
  • Pacifico2
    13
    Poly went hard in the portal to save the HC's job. He's a good guy and an accomplished coach; it is really hard to win there though. Their schemes haven't changed from last year when we shredded their D. Big question will be their QB. If Kelly is the guy they're not as good as when the Pitt kid is in there. That WR is a dude. BIGGER question is our health up the middle of the defense: Rex, Porter, and Nate. Fortunately, this is not a power run team we're facing and it will come down to our pass rush (STRENGTH) and secondary (also a strength). Poly played well for the first half vs. Sac when turnovers generated scores and great starting field position; will we get the kickoff team fixed? I like the Ags by a similar score to the Weber game, maybe 38-21/24 or so.
  • FindingJoy
    13
    Hopefully the backups can hold up enough in run so the pass rush can really affect the game as much as we know they can
  • Riveraggie
    334
    Sagarin has three prediction algorithms, and two of the three predict Cal Poly wins. All have narrow point spreads. Sagarin uses a home field advantage of 5.14 points this year.
  • Davis supreme
    3
    God forbid rex or any of our other injured players are out for the season for that matter. Would the mercer game be a blessing in disguise and allow players who haven't Already used their medical redshirt to use it this season if that's the case since they haven't played more than 4 games? If so would be a positive spin on some negative news
  • davisguy52
    20
    Was thinking the same thing this weekend. If the "game never happened" statistically, then it shouldn't count against eligibility
  • FindingJoy
    13
    Rex and Porter would be able to medical redshirt if they choose to come back as it’s still the first half of the year, same thing with Winston
  • Aggienation818
    23
    Yes they can medical redshirt but not a chance in hell Rex passes up on money again to stay..
  • DrMike
    947
    it seems like the Sagarin algorithm don't give us much respect, probably due to opponents records. San Diego + Sac > SUU + Weber + Utah Tech?
  • SochorField
    367
    Was just going to say this. Also, these guys have been in college for a loooong time. Another year would be a 6th.
  • Aggienation818
    23
    Not to be negative but speaking of players leaving. This feels like 1 and done years for both Vargas and Cofield. They are playing lights out football and I believe an FBS will send the bank at both..
  • Riveraggie
    334

    The simple rating is the comparing the ratings of the two teams and factoring in the standard 5.12 home field advantage which makes davis about a five point favorite
    The second uses customized home and away values.Maybe Cal Poly has outperformed at home, and Davis underperformed on road explains part of it. Davis didn’t cover the huge point spread at Utah Tech and got blown out at Washington so appears a weak road team.
    Third method is a mystery.
  • FindingJoy
    13
    ya never know! While not as much as FBS schools can give, Davis does have NIL money that is probably going to Rex and I’m somewhat sure the amount they can spend increases next year.
  • Aggienation818
    23
    Very true! I think we usually have enough money to go all in on one returner, hopefully we can make it two lol Plough seems convincing
  • movielover
    598
    Guys transfer all the time and don't thrive. Look at Jayden Ott. Like Coach Gould said, if you're good, they find you.
  • MTBAggie
    174
    I know polls don't mean all that much, but... Ags are 7 in both the coaches and stats polls and 6 in the Massey rating. The consistency makes me optimistic. Fingers crossed for another W this weekend!
  • CA Forever
    822
    I'm not too worried about them transferring right now. Davis historically has had VERY few pre-graduation transfers and I think that is a testimony to the "Davis guy" mantra. Cofield turned down a lot of significant FBS offers to play at Davis and Vargas has the size and explosiveness to be an Aggie great if he wants to be. From what I gather, Plough is a true player's coach and the guys love playing for him.
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