As crazy as it sounds, the Ags could still host a semi final if they win and Montana State loses, right? Scott Marsh said yesterday was the last home game of the year. Plough would really love the turnout during winter break if that's the case
I don't see Montana State losing but it's a possibility.
Only scenario for another Davis home game is beating South Dakota then Montana State falling as well.
It's a playoff championship - the best teams throughout the year gain the advantage of home field, Aggies couldn't top the Bobcats to take their place - and the Yotes beat the Bison to end the year - they both earned their home quarterfinal games, and judging by the highlights of the game in Bozeman, I think it's Montana State's tournament to lose. You play like a champion, or you go home.
idaho has a much lower probability of beating Montana State than the Ags have of beating South Dakota.
If Idaho beats Montana State and Ags beat South Dakota, I am seriously thinking about flying out to see the potential Aggie playoff home game. I give the chance of both those outcomes occurring a probability of about 10%.
I was going through the team statistics, thought it might be worthwhile to post some stats for reference on here regarding the remaining teams. NCAA tracks through the Top 50 team then doesn't list those stats. Getting them here: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs
Turnover Margin
#1 North Dakota State at +19
#9 Incarnate Word at +13
#11 Mercer at +11
#18 South Dakota State at +9
#19 South Dakota at +8
#32 Montana State at +6
#40 UC Davis at +5
Not Listed Idaho
Total Offensive Scoring (Points/Game)
#1 Montana State at 41.3
#2 North Dakota State at 39.7
#4 South Dakota at 37.4
#6 South Dakota State at 36.5
#8 UC Davis at 35.8
#14 Incarnate Word at 35.2
#22 Mercer at 32.4
#42 Idaho at 28.5
Total Defense (Points Allowed per Game)
#1 South Dakota State at 12.85
#3 South Dakota at 16.25
#6 Montana State at 17.00
#12 North Dakota State at 18.31
#16 Mercer at 19.31
#22 Incarnate Word at 21.31
#29 UC Davis at 22.15
#34 Idaho at 22.92
Kickoff Return Yardage (yds/return)
#1 South Dakota at 29.38
#3 North Dakota State at 27.41
#9 Idaho at 25.50
#35 Incarnate Word at 21.50
#46 Mercer at 20.48
Not Listed Montana State
Not Listed South Dakota State
Not Listed UC Davis
Simmons Rating (and Simmons Strength of Schedule)
#1 North Dakota State with 117.4 (SoS No. 6)
#2 South Dakota State with 117.2 (SoS No. 10)
#3 Montana State with 116.5 (SoS No. 45)
#4 South Dakota with 112.3 (SoS No. 23)
#5 Idaho with 107.2 (SoS No. 5)
#6 UC Davis with 105.7 (SoS No. 57)
#7 Incarnate Word with 103.8 (SoS No. 59)
#8 Mercer with 102.7 (SoS No. 60)
MSU - SD
I like the cats in this one. I think Mellot with his running ability will add an element that the Ags didn’t have. And i think the cats match up better in the trenches. Weather looks to be good, at least on Montana standards, a high of 47. Darn, the Ags could have competed in that.
For what it's worth, the Honolulu newspaper did not have a single article or even a score on any of the FCS games. I don't know if that illustrates the relative importance of the FCS nationally or a provincial ignorance of the paper.
Our local paper, just 9 miles north of Davis, does not cover any UC Davis sports. I’ve written the editor several times without any luck. Sadly, they cover some of SLACs sports. Maybe they’re SLAC alumni.