@cmt@Riveraggie
My best guess at this point is that Montana State, UCD, Montana, and Idaho get in. The Aggies have good chances of beating both Montana and Sac. Even if the Ags only beat UNC they are in. Even if Montana drops games against UCD and Montana State (don’t see them losing to Poly, or Portland State at home) they will be 8-4 and they’re in (we all know how selection committees bias towards Montana). I don’t see Idaho dropping more than 1 more game and in that scenario they are 8-4 and in.

Believe it or not, especially with Montana State playing such dominant ball, there is still a chance that the big sky title is open. If the Ags win out (yes a tall task) they are big sky champs. If Montana wins out they are big sky champs with the head to head with Montana State. I think the former scenario comcernkmf the Aggies is more likely than the latter with Montana - although both slim chances. No way is Montana State losing to Montana in Bozeman especially with Montana’s weaker defense this year unless Mellot goes down to injury and even then I wouldn’t bet on it.

I find myself in unfamiliar territory, but go Eagles! If they can win at home against the Bobcats that will help settle the dust, wink.

weird stuff can happen on that awful red turf. EWU will need Vesperas to be healthy to have any chance. He was injured in the Idaho game.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2024-10-31/2024-fcs-playoff-bracket-predictions-entering-final-month-season

FWIW. Has us finishing 9-3, beating Northern Colorado and Sac. Predicts us to get the #14 seed and hosting NAU in the first round. Winner would get #3 South Dakota St.

Getting South Dakota State and possibly South Dakota would be rough.
Also, at 9-3, we'd probably still be a top-5 team. Getting a #14, below Montana seems a little light.....

Its weird, people still think going up to Montana is an automatic L.
#6 Aggies pasted the Griz up there in 2018 ....49-21 and it wasn't that close (they weren't ranked, but people still weren't taking Davis seriously at Wa-Griz).
We don't need to talk about the '19 and '23 loses.....the point is, they can be beat up there.

Laughable.
NAU is unlikely to be Davis’ first round opponent:There may only be four Big Sky teams. NAU in his projected outcomes would not have beat any playoff team, and would have an FCS record of 7-3. Their best win would be Sac who he forecasts to lose to MSU and Davis, leaving Sac with a losing record. Only losing to good teams means little unless you beat a good team and Sac wouldn’t look good in that scenario.

Why is Idaho 9-3 the fifth seed when their resume includes no wins against any team in the playoffs aside from NAU, which is questionable being in? Davis would be 9-3 with a win over Idaho. Beating Wyoming shouldn’t count that much considering they are 1-7. Albany and Abilene Christian now look not more impressive than Davis beating Southern Utah.

We'd likely have to beat Montana and go 10-2 to be a top-5 team, or a scenario where we hammer Sac and UNC but lose tight games to the Montana's. But a 9-3 UCD is definitely behind NDSt, SDSt and Montana St. And I would argue you'd have to give a 9-3 Montana the edge on H2H, even if you consider them basically even. A 9-3 South Dakota would probably be above us (losses to Wisconsin, SDSt by 3 in OT and then NDSt). But I agree that 14 is probably too low.

I don't know enough about the bottom to speak on NAU, but Idaho being #5 vs. us at #14 definitely stood out to me. We'd both have an FBS loss and a loss to Montana State. They would have lost to us while we lost to Montana. I'm sure you could make an argument for them to be ahead of us, but not 9 spots.

Plough's stach is worth at least 2 spots.

10-2 gets us a bye and at least one home game?

That's essentially FIVE weeks without getting on a plane, or sleeping in a hotel bed. That's gotta be worth a LOT.

One distance road game in seven weeks?

I would have to believe 10-2 absolutely gets us a top-8 seed and a bye. Wins over a top-10 ranked 9-3 Idaho and on the road against a top-15ish 8-4 Montana (lets say they lose to MSU). Losses only to an FBS team and either a 0- or 1-loss Montana St.

#7 Tarleton St. is the only upset in the top 10. (And Utah Tech upsets #11 Central Arkansas.) On to Montana!

https://herosports.com/2024-week-10-top-25-fcs-scoreboard-bzbz/

Updated Massey predictions for the remainder of the season

@ Montana 33%
vs Montana State 34%
@ Sac State 54%

They have had the Ags as an underdog against the Hornets until after this last week. 9-3 would be an impressive first season from Plough, 10-2 would be amazing though I think that will be tough if I'm being honest. Sac State is struggling down the stretch here with injuries and coaching, but the Montanas are going to be tough sledding.

Montana - 31%
vs Montana State - 30%
@ Sac State - 46% — BlueGoldAg

Now we're at 33%, 34% and 54%. Not much of a bump after last night's blowout.

Sagarin now has the ratings for Montana State and Davis separated only by seven points, and Davis will be home.
Montana State hasn’t played their toughest opponents yet, Montana and Davis. Bobcats have looked good winning but no better than Davis the last few weeks. The thing that separates them is Montana State’s defense has been tough all year but Davis has the potential to be better than shown most of the season.

CBS moved UCD up to #4, ahead of South Dakota a week late, but I guess it is unlikely that the Ags will move past anyone unless they can beat Montana and somebody else loses. Question is, woudl a loss to Montana move them lower?

Can we stop quoting the crappy Massey ratings? Slightly above useless

I'm still probably going to post them if I'm being honest. I'm sorry that you don't care for it.

We'd likely move behind Montana, unless we lost a very close game by a FG or so. But how far depends on the margin of loss. Lose by 30 and we'll move down a few spots. Lose by 3 and maybe they jump Montana to 4 and move us to 5. As you pointed out, South Dakota didn't drop after they lost at South Dakota St by 3 in OT.

The Ags stay put at #4 in the Stats Perform FCS rankings for Week 10:



https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/stats-perform-fcs-top-25

The Aggies also stay at #4 in the FCS Coaches Poll for Week 10:



https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/afca-fcs-coaches-poll

The folks over on AGS place the Aggies at #4 also for Week 10:



https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?368571-AGS-Poll-Results-2024-Week-10