Here's what the Massey Ratings currently think of the Aggies chances of winning for each of their last 4 games:

vs UNC - 98% chance of winning
@ Montana - 31%
vs Montana State - 30%
@ Sac State - 46%

So Massey currently sees the Ags ending up at 8-4.

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?367849-2024-Week-9-Playoff-Prognostication

I'm curious how Massey has 3-5 Sac State favored over 7-1 UCD?

Same here.

Well to phrase it another way, Massey is predicting Sac to be 5-4 in FCS play slightly favored (by a FG) at home against what it predicts would be an 8-2 team in FCS play.

I personally think it's more likely that Davis wins based on recent form, comparing performance against EWU, etc, but I think the model is more just reflecting that a middling Big Sky team hosting the #2 Big Sky team is still anybody's game, which I kind of agree with

Beating Davis might be the only thing Slack has to play for by that time.

The probability of Davis losing all three games given those probabilities of losing each of those game is 25%. (.69 * .70 * .52)
So Massey is predicting there is a 75% likelihood Davis will be 9-3 or better.

Concentrate on this week’s game and get a decisive win. The Montana games will be tough. Missoula extended an 8:15 pm mt start. Is this Big Sky after dark? How nice of them. Ball control and top is important. Hopefully we can keep the offense on the field. The Montana State home game should be the featured game of the season. Where’s College Game Day? Go Ags!

Big boy football.

Just for fun, noteworthy stats.

NCAA FCS National Statistics - UC Davis

Total offense - #10
Total defense - #58

3rd down conversion - #20
Fewest penalties per game - #46

Passing offense - #2 (325 ypg)
Rushing offense - #91 (125 ypg)

Red zone offense - #33
Team sacks - #103 (1.25 pg)
Turnover margin - #35

Individual Statistics

All purpose Yds - Lan Larison #2
Completion % - Miles Hastings #14
Receptions pg - Lan Larison - #50

Field Goal % - Hunter Ridley #5

Passes defended - Kavir Bains - #20
Solo tackles - David Myer - #15
Total tackles - David Myer - #37

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs

Obviously the explosive BSC makes it tough on defenses. It's surprising that our offense has struggled to establish a running game, yet we're only playing two running backs. I'd give Fisher some touches early with the 1s, and hopefully play him and Perez in the 2nd half. Along with giving Toki some PT at goal line offense. Go Ags.

Yeah, I like Fischer. He’s so fast through the hole and allusive.

Everyone likes Fisher from the little we've seen of him. He actually had almost as much game experience as Perez coming into this season, so they don't have that as an excuse.

Since Magic isn't a RB now, puzzling why we only use 2 backs and we're really struggling in the running game. What happened to competition? We can say the O line is banged up, we made the wrong call, or the D was dominating, but sometimes players make plays. Perez did OK, but at least once I saw what appeared to be wide open field on the right side. Maybe Fisher would have broken that outside, even taken it to the house. We'll never know.

I'm no expert on probability, but if there is a 25% that the Ags lose all three, wouldn't they be 8-4? Plus wouldn't you'd have to factor in the probability of losing to UNC?

Assuming a win over Northern Colorado (not a sure thing!), yes, if we lose all three we'd be 8-4. According to the probabilities, that's a 25% chance of happening.

So the second part of his post is that if there's a 25% chance we lose all three, that means there's a 75% chance we win at least 1 of the 3 games, which means there's a 75% chance we finish with at least a 9-3 record. Again, assuming a win over Northern Colorado.

More likely than not that they’ll be 9-3.
They are said in the post by BlueGoldAg to have a 98% chance of winning against Northern Colorado, Since none of this is known to 2 significant figures we can ignore the probability of them losing that game.

They’ve run the ball more effectively the last two games, and Cal Poly had a statistically strong run defense.
I don’t think it would be a knock on either of the running backs we use to play Fisher enough to develop depth. The kid has a gift. He may have some deficiencies that aren’t apparent to us fans, but I’d hate to see him go elsewhere in search of playing time,

If they lose to Northern Colorado and lose out to the three tougher teams, I think it's highly questionable they get in. I think if they beat Northern Colorado, they make it in.

i remember hearing in the preseason that 8 wins was the 'magic number' for a bid. Of course, alot of that depends on how the other BSC teams finish out. if we were to be 5-3, and have Idaho, or NAU/Weber (they play this weekend) sneak ahead of us, i'm not sure that 5 teams from the conference would get in.

Idaho is favored in their remaining games, if they win those they’ll be 9-3
Montana favored in three of their four remaining game, if they win those they’ll be 9-3
Montana State is favored in all their remaining games, if they win those they’ll be 12-0
NAU played Lincoln this year, so they only have 3 division 1 wins, if they win out they’ll only have two conference losses, which would be better than the three losses we would have in league if we lost the last three games. That may not get them in over an 8-4 Davis as I don’t think conference record would outweigh being 7-4, when their best win would be Weber or Sac State. Weber’s already lost five games, so I think they are out of playoff contention. Same with Sac unless they win out including beating MSU and Davis, that might get them to a very impressive 7-5.
Davis might squeeze in at 8-4 as the last Big Sky team, but not a sure thing.

Committee has the Aggies ranked #5

Agreed 100%. I recall that when we inked Fisher it was considered a big signing. Plough wasn't here for that. Obviously we'll need to replace LL (and Magic) next year, so a LOT of PT opens up. But depth and development are also important. It also fired me up when Toki came in at FB! Reminds me of The Frig from Chicago days.

https://youtube.com/shorts/cu22lKUxjMg?si=YyCK7V-4rI1Fytx9

Agreed on NAU vs. UCD. For 8-4 NAU (7-4 vs. FCS or better like you said) to get in over an 8-4 UCD, I think we'd have to squeak by Northern Colorado and get hammered by the Montana's and Sac. NAU would also probably need Sac to win out to bolster the resume.

I say we go 3-1 and do away w squeeking into the playoffs. Beat NC, one of two vs the Montanas, trounce Sac, get a bye, and fire it up!

UC Davis

Kickoff returns - #32
Punt returns - #110 (3.85 average yards)

Did Fisher or anyone down the depth chart excel at punt returns in high school? #110 isn't very good, while South Dakota State is averaging almost 21 yards per punt return.

Use Tompkins. He was an excellent punt return guy when he was given the opportunity. I think they are holding Fisher back for the future.
Certainly the season is not over, but what may not be noticed enough now is that Plough has had to work with a team that is entirely of Hawkins making. Now, he got a lot of talent of course, but the team appears to have bonded very well with him. That is worth noting IMHO. Very impressed with the very young coaching so far.

There's an idea, though they may be protecting him bc of prior injuries. Coach Plough and staff have done an excellent job, but the teeth of the BS schedule is ahead.

Fisher, bio from the roster:

WESTVIEW HS '23: Attended Westview High School in Portland, Ore. … Named Metro League Player of the Year … Set a school record with 2,964 yards and 40 touchdowns his senior season … First high school player in the Beaverton School District in over a decade to break the 2,000-yard rushing mark … Averaged nearly nine yards per carry … Two-time all-league selection … Named Columbia Cup Championship Player of the Game … Ranked No. 1 in the state in rushing yards, touchdowns and total points scored … Metro League Offensive Player of the Year … Broke every rushing record in Westview history.

What a special young man. Fisher was given the game ball after rushing for 2,000 yards in HS, and in private he gave the ball to one of his lineman. His HS coach believed he was a P5 RB, and that he'll play in the NFL one day.

https://www.kptv.com/2022/11/11/westview-hs-football-star-runs-record-books/

Brandon Huffman of 247Sports: "...does he have that elite top-end speed? I think he does — all he does is run away from people."

Kickoff Return Yards Avg - 15.43 / Avg

Total Return Yards - 216 Yds

https://www.maxpreps.com/or/portland/westview-wildcats/athletes/jordan-fisher/football/21-22/stats/leader-rankings/?careerid=hn3g03kqcrvrb

These are mere probabilities based on static results (the past). As we all know, the season is dynamic, not static.

I’m not vouching for the accuracy of Massey probabilities. Just saying what they imply if accurate,.
As you say these forecasts are all based on the past, if for some reason a team has underperformed its talent, or not been motivated to win by unnecessary margins, or had injuries that affected score margins the past is not predictive. While I don’t know Massey’s algorithm I believe they just estimate point spreads, and correlate that point spread with the historical probability of a win.
Davis hasn’t played to win by the biggest margin possible and has also had some player availability issues that are mostly resolved. Davis has allowed a lot of late scores after the game is decided. I believe Davis is a better team than comparative scores indicate.

The Aggies are a solid #5 in the Gridiron Power Index:

https://www.college-sports-journal.com/gridiron-power-index-10-30-2024-little-change-in-top-10-while-northeast-adds-two-more-in-top-25/

They are also a projected #5 seed in the playoffs using their GPI score with a possible matchup with the winner of the Drake at #12 North Dakota game:

https://www.college-sports-journal.com/csj-gridiron-power-index-2024-ncaa-fcs-playoff-projection-10-30-2024/