The Dakota and Montana teams benefit from no higher level football in their states. Governors go to their games. They are the biggest fish in a small pond, so that gives them a base of support. In most states the sport coverage focuses on higher levels.
While that makes sense, it makes one wonder why Hawai`i doesn't do better under similar circumstances but with a ton of home grown talent (see DeForest Buckner, Tua Tagovailoa, etc.).
I'd have to agree with you that the Pacific Ocean is a pretty big pond. It impacts football here negatively, though. It makes recruiting to Hawai`i difficult and the lure of the Power Four conferences makes it hard to keep the local talent local.
I would think that the lure of getting to go to school in such a beautiful place as Hawai'i would be a recruiting advantage. Santa Barbara is another school that seems to have a geographic advantage. Both places have beautiful beaches, the ocean and sun and SB has some of the most ideal weather in the USA.
It's never had the kind of attraction for major college athletes that the natural beauty of the islands might be expected to have. Now with NIL, etc. even less so. Not many big money sponsors here.
You'd probably need a scenario where two of the Dakota's win out, giving a couple losses to the others, and we would have to lose tight games to the Montana schools while handling Northern Colorado and Sac relatively easily.
NDSt only plays South Dakota and they have 3 ranked wins. Losing that one puts them at 10-2 so they'd be ahead of 9-3 UCD regardless.
Montana State would also likely be ahead of us since in that scenario they'd beat us and, at worst, have the same 9-3 record.
The other Dakota's come down to how the games go. You could have a scenario where SD beats NDSt but loses to ND and SDST. Then you'd have NDST with 2 losses, SD with 3 losses, the winner of SDST-ND would have 2 losses and the loser would have 3 losses. All four would probably be ahead of us.
If Montana beats Montana St and UCD, they'll likely win out, would be 10-2 and ahead of us. Even if they lose to MSU, a 9-3 Montana with a H2H win over a 9-3 UCD is probably ranked above UCD.
So realistically, we'd have to finish 10-2 to be in the top-3 or 4 unless some upsets happen.
This weekend will be exciting. The only guaranteed loss in the top 10 is one of the South Dakota teams. According to Massey, the Tarleton/Austin Peay game is a tossup. But it's very likely that 8 of the top 10 teams will add a W. There is a chance we move down a spot or two in the standings in a bye week if SEMO and ND both win. Unless SDSU blows out USD, I could see them both staying at 3 and 4. All of it doesn't matter. Just gotta keep winning our games!
I'm still holding out for a 10-2 season. And if we blow out UNC, and beat Montana, I'm putting money on our Aggies against Montana St. I think it's possible, if all of the stars align, to have an amazing upset for the last home game of the regular season. The EWU/MSU game next weekend should tell us a lot. If MSU blows out EWU 75-9, we're in trouble.
I don’t know if this would help us? Wouldn’t it be to our benefit for MSU to be ranked as high as possible entering our game with them? If we lose we won’t drop too far and if we win we move up and have a top 3 win for the playoff committee’s consideration. Winning a share of the title with MSU where they have the H2H doesn’t seem as important as our playoff seeding.
Eastern knocking of Montana State would be a good thing because Eastern isn’t going to be competitive as far as a playoff spot is concerned. A loss for MSU in that game enhances the possibility that Davis wins the conference title.
But you don’t want Sac or Montana, two teams whose seasons are going to be compared with Davis for playoff bids or seedings to beat MSU if Davis doesn’t.
I was hoping for my coworker who went to SDSU that his Jacks would stomp USD, making it more possible for Davis to move up a spot. But it is a tight game, tied at 14.
So only two upsets in the top 25. #7 UND falls to the Penguins of YSU and #16 William and Mary falls to Stony Brook. Probably no change in the top 5. We better thump Northern CO and make a statement going in to back to back Montana schools.
This is surprising on two counts: The Ags did not win a game to move up and USD moved down despite losing a close game to a higher ranked team. What might a W over Montana State do? (I know, one game at a time.)
I don't know how you all feel, but "not losing" games is not the same as "winning" games. I think we are peaking at the right time, but #4 is just a bubble.
Also, of note again, that these polls have no impact on seeding. From David Collins:
Also, a reminder about the FCS Top 10 reveal on Wednesday: The Division I Football Championship Committee will release their FCS Top 10 Wednesday, October 30. The ranking will be unveiled during the College Football Live broadcast at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN2. This will serve as a snapshot as to where the committee has teams ranked heading into the final four weeks of the regular season.
This year in selecting at-large teams, the FCS championship committee will consider each team’s won-lost record, their strength of schedule and their rankings in the KPI, Massey Ratings and ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The 2024 championship field will consist of 10 automatic qualifiers and 14 at-large selections. The FCS Selection Show will air November 24 at 12:30 ET on ESPNU.
I think that as of 2023, both the STATS poll and coaches poll are actually official criteria that are taken into consideration by the selection committee:
EDIT: This was just 2023. Sam Herder reported today that the committee will no longer consider the two polls in seeding and at-large berth determinations.