I think if they lose they would be an away team. I'd be shocked if they were out unless it was like 30+ blowout against Sac, but part of the argument for Sac's seeding should they win rests on beating UM and us.

I still think we could get a home game; not all the schools put in a bid to host. We’ve hosted in the past. Our attendance is probably higher than some of the schools we’d be competing with (except Montana)

At this point, will be happy to play @ Sam Houston State...

got the itch to get embarrassed 3 games in a row? :rofl:

Well, we won't get Sam Houston State in the first round since they'll have a bye. Thank God!

Yeah, we’ll have to win a road game to play one of the seeded teams.

I hope I'm wrong but I think there's a good chance that we will not be in the playoffs now. We have lost big to both EWU and Sac and we have the awful loss to Idaho State also. Since the selection committee has never taken 5 teams from the Big Sky and we are in 5th place, I think we may not get selected.

what might get us in is that the CAA only had two teams with less than 4 losses, same with MVFC.

Hold on. Since 2013 when the field expanded to 24 teams, no 8-win team from one of the Big-3 conferences has ever been denied. Selecting 5+ teams from the same conference has happened 4 of 7 seven years since the expansion. The CAA got in 6 teams in 2018. Relax, guys

Yeah, but sorry guys but we are not a playoff team. Lick the wounds and correct the problems.

Tomorrow morning when we're selected, we'll be a playoff team.

I'd like to clarify the 8-win part to start with. It's no team with 3 or fewer losses rather than 8+ wins. There have been two 8-4 teams that have been left out.

2014 Idaho State went 8-4, best wins over two 7-5 teams, lost two FBS games and to two playoff teams by 3 and 5 points. However, they beat two DII wins so they only had 6 FCS wins. Guessing they got dinged for that.
2013 Youngstown State went 8-4, best win at 7-5 team by 1, lost FBS game, by 18 to No. 1 NDST, by 29 to 8-4 SDST and by 2 to 7-5 Northern Iowa. There were only three 8-win teams in the conference that year and most of the teams played 12 games.

Here's another stat. Since the playoffs expanded in 2013, the Big 3 conferences have gotten at least 11 spots each year but 2013 (got 9 that year) and at least 12 each year from 2014-2018. In 2019 they only got 11. We're ignoring 2020 since it was a smaller bracket.

So if you give the MVFC 5 and the CAA 2, the Big Sky could get 5 and that would still only be 12. The third best team in the CAA is either 6-5 Elon (lost to JMU by 24, Nova by 35 and a 1-10 Wofford team at home by 2) or 7-4 Rhode Island (didn't play JMU, lost to Nova by 44 and other three losses were to two 6-5 teams and a 4-7 team).

There are two conference champs who get autobids that are unranked. However, it doesn't appear the Ivy participates so that takes out No. 20 Dartmouth and No. 24 Princeton. The SWAC plays its own conference championship game so that takes out No. 19 Jackson State.

Mercer is ranked 21 in the STATS poll. They just lost at No. 8 by 3 so they'll probably remain there. Finished the year 7-3 but one of those was an NAIA win. Best team they beat went 6-5.
Stephen F Austin (8-3) is ranked 22 in the STATS poll and won 42-6 this week over a 2-9 team. They lost to Sam Houston by 1. but also lost to a 5-6 team. One win over Lincoln (CA) that I can't even find info on. Beat a 7-4 team as best win.

Others receiving votes last week. You could sell me on 6-5 Northern Iowa (26) as being better than us with a better resume. 27 is Monmouth (7-4) who lost 49-17 to the only good team in their league and by 30 to Holy Cross (28), with their best win being over a 6-5 team. Holy Cross (28) beat Monmouth and UConn, which is a FBS win in name only. VMI (29) just lost again. Chattanooga (30) also just lost again. It doesn't get any better either if you keep going.

TL;DR: I know we're down on the team because of how we finished but once you get into the 20's in the rankings, the quality of team drops significantly and we're better than those teams.

Well you guys are obviously are much more informed about this than me. I'll feel better going to bed tonight tonight knowing that, barring something egregious, we'll get selected. Now, the cherry on top, would be getting a first round home game... :pray:

For the players sake, especially the seniors, I hope the committee agrees we are a playoff team.

From NCAA.com:

The writer has us in as the 7th at large bid, but with a caution that we may not be around very long. He ruled out two teams (VMI, William & Mary) who finished on three loss streaks.

Autobids:

CONFERENCE, TEAM

AQ7 - Sam Houston
Big Sky - Sacramento State
Big South - Kennesaw State
CAA - Villanova
MVFC - North Dakota State
NEC - Sacred Heart
OVC - UT Martin
Patriot - Holy Cross
Pioneer - Davidson
SoCon - ETSU
Southland - UIW

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-11-07/fcs-football-playoffs-tracking-automatic-bids-2021-fcs-playoffs?utm_campaign=inline-article


PREDICTED at large bids:

STAN BECTON | NCAA.COM | NOVEMBER 21, 2021
Predicting every at-large selection to the 2021 FCS playoffs
It's almost time for the 2021 FCS playoffs, with the selection show tomorrow, Nov. 21 at 12:30 p.m. With all of the automatic qualifying bids decided, the 13 at-large selections are still up for grabs. 
Luckily for FCS fans around the country, I have predicted all 13 teams that will receive an invitation to the 24-team field come tomorrow afternoon.
Here are the 2021 FCS playoff at-large selection predictions
1. James Madison (10-1) CAA
This was the easiest selection of the at-large bids. With just one loss, James Madison may receive the highly regarded two seed come Sunday afternoon.
2. Montana State (9-2) Big Sky
Montana State's loss in the Brawl of the Wild cost them the Big Sky's automatic bid, but the Bobcats remain in the playoff field thanks to an otherwise dominant regular season.
3. Eastern Washington (9-2) Big Sky
Eastern Washington likely receives a seed in this year's FCS playoffs with just two losses on its resume. The Eagles have one of the nation's top offenses led by arguably the nation's top quarterback.
4. Montana (9-2) Big Sky
Montana picked up a win in Week 12 over in-state rival Montana [State] that almost guarantees it a seed in this year's playoff field. The Grizzlies hold a ranked FBS win and their two losses came to other top teams in the Big Sky.
5. Missouri State (8-3) MVFC
Missouri State holds wins over South Dakota, Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa this season. Head coach Bobby Petrino's team made it through a gauntlet of a schedule to make the playoffs for the second-straight season.
6. South Dakota State (8-3) MVFC
Last year's national championship runner-up returns to postseason play as an at-large team after finishing 8-3. The Jackrabbits hold an FBS win and defeated rival North Dakota State in the Dakota Marker.
7. UC Davis (8-3) Big Sky
UC Davis enters the FCS playoffs on a two-game losing streak. The Aggies will have to rediscover its top-10 form or face an early exit from this year's field.
8. Southeastern Louisiana (8-3) Southland
Southeastern Louisiana may have lost two of its final three games, but it still has reigning Walter Payton award winner Cole Kelley at quarterback. Kelley has the potential to right the ship and carry the Lions on a deep playoff run.
9. Florida A&M (9-2) SWAC
Florida A&M becomes the first SWAC team to make the FCS playoffs since 1997. The Rattlers have a dominant defense that scored two touchdowns in Week 12. With stars like the FCS's sacks and tackle for loss leader, linebacker Isaiah Land, Florida A&M's defense can keep it in any game.
10. Southern Illinois (7-4) MVFC
Southern Illinois' loss to Youngstown State in Week 12 came as a surprise, but wins over a talented South Dakota State team and a competitive North Dakota squad are enough to get the Salukis into the playoffs with a 7-4 record.
11. South Dakota (7-4) MVFC
South Dakota is one of the most interesting teams in this year's playoff field. The Coyotes lost to FCS programs Missouri State, Illinois State and North Dakota State, but defeated South Dakota State and Northern Iowa. How far South Dakota goes in this year's tournament depends on which Coyote team shows up.
12. Stephen F. Austin (8-3) AQ7
Stephen F. Austin holds just two FCS losses, one of which coming to reigning champion Sam Houston. Losses aside, it's Stephen F. Austin's head-to-head win over Eastern Kentucky that gets the Lumberjacks into the playoffs.
13. Northern Iowa (6-5) MVFC
UNI is my last-team-in as an at-large in this year's FCS playoffs. UNI holds three great wins over Big Sky champion Sacramento State and MVFC foes South Dakota State and Southern Illinois. None of the teams on the bubble can match this resume.
First team out
Rhode Island (7-4) CAA
Rhode Island would have been in as an at-large team if not for a Week 12 loss to Elon. With that loss, the Rams are the first team out of the 2021 FCS playoffs. Despite having an FBS win over UMass, Rhode Island's win over Delaware has only become less impressive as the season progressed.
Other teams that just missed out in my predictions
Eastern Kentucky (7-4) AQ7
Eastern Kentucky misses the playoffs because the Colonels do not have a notable win this season.
VMI (6-5) SoCon
VMI lost three straight games to end the season. That is enough to knock the Keydets out of the playoff picture.
Mercer (7-3) SoCon
Mercer lost a chance at an automatic bid, falling to ETSU in Week 12. While the Bears only have two FCS losses, their best win comes against a 6-5 Chattanooga team.
William and Mary (6-5) CAA
William and Mary is another program that fell out of the playoff picture with three straight losses to end the season. The Tribe hold a win over a likely seeded team in Villanova, but that isn't enough to sneak into the playoffs.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-11-20/fcs-playoff-predictions-predicting-every-large-selection-2021-fcs-playoffs?utm_campaign=trending

If that’s was the actual order we’d be borderline to host a game. Don’t think the conference champs are guaranteed a home game. Two conference champs are behind us since they’re unranked and that list has 6 at large teams behind us also.

I don’t necessarily think we deserve a home game though.

pretty sure you are correct about conference champs; San Diego has never hosted.

Sac St is the 4 seed.

Montana is the 6 seed.

Montana State is the 8 seed.

EWU not top 8 then.

They showed UC Davis just before the first commercial break

Think we’ll travel to one of the Montanas. Blurb said first round games would be “regionalized.”

Well, they're both top 8 seeds so that's not possible til at least round 2

We’d have to win a game to do that.

Yeah, just thought of that.

Brackets look totally regional opening round

UCD on the road at South Dakota St. Winner gets Sac St.

Last two games, and specifically the performances/scoreline as opposed to just losing, definitely cost us a home game and I don’t think we can complain about it at all.

I will say, Davis has looked better on the road this season...

I was going to say that too. More focus and less distraction?

I have to say the past couple weeks and today remind me of the old golfers joke in which a guy quadruple bogeys the last hole in the best round of his life through 17. Then while about to slit his wrists in the locker room, his playing partner says “want to golf tomorrow” to which he eagerly responds “what time!”